I disagree.
First, unlike Hezbollah, georgian government/army is not in the position of clandestine interest group dispersed and hidden among civilian population. Guerilla tactics would not halt russian invasion, Tbilisi and other cities would be seized and the govermnent would be swiftly replaced by pro-Russian leadership, very much like in the case of 1968 occupation of Czechoslovakia.

Second, russian army is not US or Israeli army. Despite all the allegations of israeli war crimes in gaza, IDF is stil a relatively “civilized force”, not targetting masses of civilians on purpose. If the “Hezbollah tactics” was applied, Russia would probably declare Georgia a “terrorist state” and would wage a brutal indicriminate war like it did before in Chechnya. I could imagine carpet bombing of Tbilisi, threats and terror upon the civilians, executions, etc. Saakashvili would have to surrender to protect georgian peoples’ lives.

It is naturally questionable if there was ANY way of defending Georgia. I would agree that there is still too much stress on counter-insurgency and that after Cold War’s end, conventional war threat is widely underestimated. In my humble opinion, however, most important factor was poor morale and overall strategy on the Georgian side, including highly controversial attempt to retake control of South Ossetia.

Russia within the last 15 years was humiliated so many times that now it decided to show some force. NATO is getting close to Russian borders despite assusrances signed with Gorbachov. Western countries lied and continue to give misleading info to Russia. But the biggest mistake is we have to understand Russia is different as well as China is different. We should not teach them how to live, we should build strong relationship based on common issues. Finally, we have to be careful in military support. West supported Osama and Taliban when the Russians were in Afghanistan, now we are fighting against Taliban. Today we are training Saakashvili who is just a crazy dictator, tomorrow we will be fighting against him asking Russia for help.

Since this is a DoD-blog, I have got to ask: Has the US gone insane? By enraging the Russians as well as keeping a halfway war with Iran simmering, you have confined logistics to Afghanistan to one route only, Pakistan. ANd then you declare unofficial war on them too? What is this, some rapturist insanity? I dont understand, and since I officially am a NATO reservist I think at some point someone should explain to me the long term strategies. Please.

The Chechians failed in their long guerrilla war against Russia, and the Chechians, as guerrilla fighters, are as wily and ruthless as they come. The Russians surely now possess a certain competency in this sort of warfare as a result of this recent experience. Additionally, the Chechians had the advantage of fighting amongst a civilian population that was mostly sympathetic throughout much of the conflict. The Georgians won’t have that luxury; they will have to sneak into hostile territory to carry out their attacks. The Ossetians and Abkhazians despise the Georgians more than ever, and the Georgian fighters will have little to no chance of blending in with the local population within the two territories. This is especially true considering the Georgians have been largely ethnically cleansed from them since onset of the recent conflict.

The irony of ironies is that many Chechens are now fighting alongside the Russians against the Georgians. They do this because the Ossetians, although not muslim, are their ethnic kin. I read an article that mentioned that an all-Chechen paratroop brigade within the Russian army had fought the Georgians with great effectiveness and without losing a man. Also, many Chechen irregulars poured in during the conflict, eager for the opportunity to kill Georgians.

Russia itself, as a direct result of the the conflict — and the accompanying surge in hostility directed at it from the west — will now rearm with even greater urgency than has been the case in the last few years.

In short, the Georgians don’t have a prayer.

Russia has many opportunities to retaliate against the US for any trouble visited upon it by the US-backed Georgians. They can withdraw US/Euro access to Russian airspace, thus hindering operations in Afghanistan. They may choose to make or renew alliances with select Afghan forces battling the US/Euro occupation and arm them with MANPADS (more irony). They could arm the Al-Madhi army with powerful anti-armor and other weapons. Conversely, they could simply give them to Iran, knowing the Iranians will then funnel them to The Al-Madhi army and Hezbollah. They could insinuate to Israel that unless it uses its heavy influence over US foreign policy decision making to deter the Americans, they will arm both Iran and Syria with the most advanced S-300 anti-aircraft systems. And then there’s South America and the Caribbean …

Confronting and forcing a fight with Russia is an insane proposition. Mycroft is right about the Larrys running around.

Maybe after the US-Russian nuclear exchanges, and after the survivors on both sides emerge from their cellars to contemplate slow death amidst the radioactive ash that used to be their homes, will the insanity of forcing a war with Russia sink in.

http://exiledonline.com/please-dont-help-the-georgians/

That’s the same type of moronic thinking that got us into this ridiculous mess in Iraq.

Larry, go upstairs, your mother’s calling you for dinner.

It is quite useless to look for a right answer to a wrong question. If Russia wanted to take any more of Georgian territory then why did not they do that already while Georgian army was unable to resist?

The only two things that make sense for Georgia are

1. forget South Ossetia and Abkhazia, stop military spendings, and try to restore friendly relations with its large northern neighbor;

2. prepare for another suicidal attack on breakaway regions in desperate hope that by some miracle it will work this time around.

There is just no need for Georgians to bother with protecting from possible Russian attacks unless they are going to bring them upon themselves again.

Didn’t we learn anything from the ‘pious’ freedom fighting mujahideen in Afghanistan, the “American committee for Peace in Chechnya” or the constant terrorist destruction that is partly the result of Brzezinski/Carter’s decision to appease and ally with fascists to fight the commies?

So, okay, let’s turn the Georgian army into Hezbollah. We can set them up with some smuggling operations in North Carolina and Central America to pay some of their expenses. Then we can find a friendly Islamofascist regime among our 9/11 sponsoring Gulf-state friends to fund the rest. We can set up a neo-Hezbollah militia in Georgia whose “high discipline and motivation” will soon make it a state within a state.

Then they can beat up the Russians. The Russians will respond by flattening Georgia, and when it’s all over, neo-Hezbollah can use their high discipline and motivation to take over the ruins that are now Georgia, where they will bully the locals and the neighbors. Brilliant plan.

Loosing quickly and keep your country and its vital infrastructure can be more important than a military conflict at all costs.

I wrote an article about it in my blog: http://warbuff.wordpress.com/2008/09/08/did-georgia-went-for-a-quick-military-defeat-to-spare-the-country-and-economy/

Of course if it is about “live or death” the Georgians should act like Hezbollah. That South Ossetia and Abkhazia was lost was a situation the Georgians already faced the last 10 years.

World War IV is happening now with the West vs. Radical Islam.