Israel Facing Strategic Defeat in Gaza: Cordesman

Israel Facing Strategic Defeat in Gaza: Cordesman

By Greg Grant Sunday, January 11th, 2009 12:37 pm
Posted in Policy

What is the strategic purpose behind Israel’s assault on Gaza? That’s the question asked by CSIS’s Anthony Cordesman, who warns of the potentially dangerous knock-on effects of what he sees as Israel’s misguided military venture, one that is unlikely to alter the Israeli-Palestinian strategic calculus in any meaningful way.

“After two weeks of combat Olmert, Livni, and Barak have still not said a word that indicates that Israel will gain strategic or grand strategic benefits, or tactical benefits much larger than the gains it made from selectively striking key Hamas facilities early in the war. In fact, their silence raises haunting questions about whether they will repeat the same massive failures made by Israel’s top political leadership during the Israeli-Hezbollah War in 2006.”

“If Israel has a credible ceasefire plan that could really secure Gaza, it is not apparent. If Israel has a plan that could credibly destroy and replace Hamas, it is not apparent. If Israel has any plan to help the Gazans and move them back towards peace, it is not apparent. If Israel has any plan to use US or other friendly influence productively, it not apparent.” 

Cordesman points out the perils of waging these complex wars among the people: “The growing human tragedy in Gaza is steadily raising more serious questions as to whether the kind of tactical gains that Israel now reports are worth the suffering involved… each new Israeli air strike or advance on the ground has increased popular support for Hamas and anger against Israel in Gaza.”

“As we have seen all too clearly from US mistakes, any leader can take a tough stand and claim that tactical gains are a meaningful victory. If this is all that Olmert, Livni, and Barak have for an answer, then they have disgraced themselves and damaged their country and their friends.”

Iran and Hezbollah are capitalizing on the conflict, Cordesman says, and anti-American protests are spreading across the Islamic world. 

Photo credit: MyAlgeria.com

This website uses IntenseDebate comments, but they are not currently loaded because either your browser doesn't support JavaScript, or they didn't load fast enough.

Join the Conversation

C January 12th, 2009 at 11:56 am

I wonder if Israel could meet it’s objectives without occupying or continuing it’s attacks on all of Gaza. What if, Israel drove a wedge through Gaza, by creating & clearing a kilometer wide military cordon, south of Deir el-Balah extending from Kissufim to the sea. Followed with a vow to return said territory 6-months to the day after the last rocket is fired from Gaza. Israel could invite U.N. inspectors to help examine cargo & persons transiting the cordon. Such an action would allow Israel to reduce the movement of large rockets to northern Gaza & provide a motivation to stop the attacks. The IDF would probably have to hand out a payment to families for displacement & make record of who is moved, doing so could help dampen international criticism… It’s not a perfect solution, but it seems like a reasonable one at the moment.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gaza_Strip
http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/mapImages/41f055a93647b.jpg
http://www.lib.utexas.edu/maps/middle_east_and_asia/gaza_strip_may_2005.jpg

tipover January 12th, 2009 at 9:45 pm

Cordesman bitches about Israeli actions but gives no solutions. Nuf said!

Reader January 13th, 2009 at 5:29 pm

I’m with tipover — what would Cordeman do? Its so easy to say what he does. But then again he sits safely in the US where no missiles fly into his ‘hood. I imagine he would think quite differently if he lived in Sderot. 

By weakening Hamas, perhaps the “normal” people can throw off their tyranny. Take a look here to see the tyranny under which people in Gaza live. Thes etwo vedoa are appling.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9i57PrvlCWo&NR=1
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VJbGTVittSE&feature=related

Judy January 14th, 2009 at 8:22 am

The question isnt’ what would Cordesman do if he lived in Sderot, but what if he lived in Jebalya?

The core issue is not the pesky rockets that disrupt the lives of a few Israeli citizens. The core issue is the ongoing 40+ year violent military occupation that subjugates millions of Palestinians.

We ALL know sooner or later this will end up at the negotiating table. Let’s get there before another thousand Gazans are slaughtered.

daskro January 14th, 2009 at 10:50 am

Judy — This core issue you speak of would hold more water if this war was fought against the Palestinian people, but I’ve yet to see the IDF strike targets against Fatah or send troops and tanks into the West Bank. It is a clever marketing ploy reminiscent of Arafat to label this war as an attack on the Palestinian people when in reality the war is against a bankrupt government that happens to preside over a portion of the Palestinian population.

Corroache January 19th, 2009 at 1:58 pm

I think you are thinking like sukrat, but I think you should cover the other side of the topic in the post too…

*required

Spam Protection by WP-SpamFree