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Our Views on F-22s

By Colin Clark Monday, July 20th, 2009 6:22 pm
Posted in Air, Policy

Earlier today I did a podcast with Addison Schonland, an aviation consultant, about the latest state of play on the F-22/F-35 debate, looking ahead to the Senate debate on the Raptor’s future. The Senate is likely to take up the debate again tomorrow morning. It will be one close vote. How close, you ask? Sens. Mark Udall and Roger Wicker said at CSIS this afternoon that the vote will be extremely close, so close neither of them was willing to offer a likely vote count. Click here for the podcast.

This is how Addison introduced the piece:

“Some want more F-22s and some don’t, they want the F-35. And there is absolutely no middle ground here. This competition is unlike the tanker war, as Colin Clark, editor of DODBuzz.com explains, which can be fudged. This is a nasty fight with very high stakes and everybody has an ox that will be gored no matter the outcome. This is the highest stakes military fight since the MX missile.”

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	Daniel Russ July 20th, 2009 at 9:11 pm Great Podcast. I wonder if the Japanese have a RAM skin that works and so they obviously know it’s worth the money for all its other capabilities. Just speculating. Daniel Russ Civilianmilitaryintelligencegroup.com
	Lighthouse July 21st, 2009 at 12:26 am Just out of curiosity, what happens after? Lets say the jet is canceled. The F-22 becomes the “silver bullet” like the B-2 and we are left with F-15s and F-35s. The F-35 isn’t going to be here any time soon (2–3 years) so that leaves us with F-15s. Last I checked, the F-15s didn’t do so hot last year. Yes, those were to older versions, but what are we doing about upgrading those older versions? I don’t think any pilot wants the plane to break apart mid flight. In addition, are we just going the order the F-15s (stealth) or keep ordering E versions, or none at all? Just saying there are a lot of questions to be answered besides those I asked. Lastly, what about having an F-22 that isn’t stealth? Consider that some country or person figures out how to see a stealth plane with radar. How good is it when the stealth is compromised?
	Drake1 July 21st, 2009 at 7:47 am The U.S. Air Force would rather let F-15s fall apart, rather than buy new ones.
	jimbo July 21st, 2009 at 8:18 am Problem is developing a non-steathy f-22 is going to cost a boat load… the number based on the export version is atronomical… i do not think the stealth f-15 is the answer.. i think regular upgraded f-15 would do…
	nighthawk July 21st, 2009 at 1:49 pm this is just another step to weaking our national defense…I mean, the russians are working on ways of countering our F-22 not the F-35…it just sickens me that washington is telling us what we need and don’t need and they aren’t the ones who will be plying them or taking them out to defend our country…and how many jobs will be lost, I heard somewhere in the area of 40,00..ya like our country can handle that right now
	Jeff Razer July 21st, 2009 at 3:51 pm Gates claims that 10,000 jobs will be lost from the F-22, but that the added money for the F-35 will creating 80,000+ jobs over the next few years. I’m curious of that’s true or exagerated. There will be some lag-time before the F-35 starts to replace the F-15. That’s unfortunate, but I feel that the F-22 wasn’t honestly going to replace the F-15 either. We’re stuck in this tech limbo where the F-15 is falling apart but the next generation is a few years out. Hopefully the F-35 replacement a couple of decades down the road comes along before the F-35s are falling out of the sky.
	pfcem July 21st, 2009 at 4:42 pm Jeff Razer, Added money for the F-35 will create ZERO jobs. Those “80,000+” jobs are alreadt to be created as part of the F-35 program. F-35s are replacing F-15, they are replacing F-16s (in the USAF) & we are unlikely to get enough F-35s quickly enough to replace the F-16 much less replaceing the F-15s as well. How/why wasn’t the F-22 going to replace the F-15? We are planning to procure F-35s until at least 2035. It will be a decade or more AFTER than before ther is any F-35 replacement.
	Cole July 21st, 2009 at 6:44 pm pfcem, every one of those LockMart employees who want to, can get a job on the F-35…a simple move to Texas for very long term employment. Meanwhile, 22,000 more Soldiers will be added for the next few years with monies saved by not buying 4 of the 7 F-22s that were going to cost $1.75 billion. Bravo Senators…you did well. By 2015, we may have nearly 500 5th generation fighters with the Russians and Chinese only having a handful that are nowhere near as stealthy or high quality as ours. The S-300? Easily jammed by EA-18G and F-35 with advanced HARMs and small diameter bombs to complete destruction of enemy air defenses.
	Lighthouse July 21st, 2009 at 7:03 pm @Drake1: That seems to be about it… @jimbo: We already have the plane… just don’t apply the coating. Or do I have it totally wrong on how stealth works? I know it has to do with the “paint” applied and how the plane is shaped. In addition, I thought half the cost of maintenance was the coating. @Cole: I’ll agree with you but I thought the F-35 doesn’t have the range that the F-22 has to operate. Yes, we could have a tanker, but that would be kind of ridiculous to have a huge target such as that in enemy air space?
	prfem July 21st, 2009 at 11:23 pm Cole, Every employee currently working on the F-22 that goes to work on the F-35 is one less NEW employee. The end result is still some 10,000 lost jobs. No the money not spend procuring additional F-22 is going to procure more LRIP F-35s. The Army is/going to get 20,000–30,000 more troops reguardless of how many F-22 &/or F-35s the USAF is allowed to procure. Whwther we procure additional F-22s or accelerate F-35 LRIP, the total number of 5th genertiona fighters in 2015 would not change that much (~120 more F-22 vs 150 more F-35s). The difference is what the mix (high/low) of 5th generation fighters is. That & those ~150 F-35s are going to be procured whether done earlier during accelerated (higher relative cost) LRIP or later during (lower relative cost) full rate production. *** Lighthouse, LOL. Buy more $90–100 million legacy (aka obsolete) F-15s… You don’t understand how steath works or that there is a lot more about the F-22 that we would prefer NOBODY else get their hands on that just its stealth. Actually the range of the F-22 & F-35 are nearly the same. The differnece is that the F-22 is a ‘high mix’ F-15 replacement AIR DOMINANCE fighter & the F-35 is a ‘low mix’ F-16 replacement strike fighter.
	ELP July 22nd, 2009 at 7:14 am A gamble on an aircraft with only 2 percent of its flight testing done. Yeah … real smart.
	Cole July 22nd, 2009 at 8:26 am pfcem, Fortunately, DoD has chosen to field more F-35s sooner, thereby modernizing all services simultaneously, and being able to afford EA-18G and Army troop increases NOW. The F-35 is also the superior aircraft for: * full spectrum of conflict…multi-role fighters support low to high threat conflicts…unlike the F-22 sitting current wars out * air-to-ground EO/IR effectiveness for bombing and ISR and fratricide/collateral damage prevention * lower maintenance stealth and outstanding AESA radar with EW potential. Future ability to carry 6 AMRAAM internally and better use off-axis AIM-9X. DAS provides IR search and track which F-22 lacks * lower operation and support costs, and less stress on aging tanker fleet to achieve longer ranges * dispersal of airpower, similar to the nuclear triad, to preclude all eggs in obvious land bases vulnerable to TBM * lower cost…when you buy just a few annual F-35 in LRIP (as you must at some point anyway) you still are paying lower prices than buying a few late limited-buy F-22s (when they SHOULD be cheap), i.e. 7 F-22 for $1.75 billion * $8 billion more F-22 increment upgrade costs and still will lack many advanced F-35 features such as: DAS, helmet-mounted displays, attack of more than two targets with 8 SDB, faster processors, and software allowing easier future upgrades * allied purchases to further increase our combined force airpower advantage against many foes, and enhance U.S. industry and allied cooperation/interoperability ELP is involved in a site called F-16.net…guess he’s in no hurry to change it to F-35.net. It continues to amaze me that when so many lessons were learned from the F-22 and subsequently applied to the F-35 by the same company’s engineers, that some expect…almost want…the F-35 to fall on its face.
	Drake1 July 22nd, 2009 at 10:12 pm LOL. Buy more $90–100 million legacy (aka obsolete) F-15s… ======================== F-15s are fine for home defense and are fine to go in after the F-22s and F-35s have taken out anti air defense sites.
	pfcem July 23rd, 2009 at 12:58 am Cole, No, unfortunately SecDef Gates does not have a clue & ‘rules the DOD with an iron fist’. Sorry but the F-35 is the ‘low’ (as in F-16) to the mix, the F-22 the ‘high’ (as in F-15) of the mix. Without enough ‘high’ (F-15s/F-22s) providing air superiority, the ‘low’ (F-16s/F-35s) can’t do their jobs (and they ain’t nearly as good at providing air superiority as the ‘high’). F-22 & F-35 COMPLEMENT EACH OTHER. Neither is a replacement for the other! The LRIP F-35s cost about as much as ‘full rate’ F-22s would (F-22 cost would still be dropping, although not at as high a rate as the F-35s will, if we were to commit to procuring a significant number more). The money now intended to buy ~150 additional/accelerated relatively expensive LRIP F-35s (not 150 more F-35s total, 150 F-35s sooner rather than at significantly lower cost full rate production later) could/should go towards another 120 F-22s. We need to replace our F-15s MUCH more urgently than we do our F-16s. I see you have abslutely no understanding of economies of scale. Prucuring 7 F-22s in one years makes them MUCH more expensive than procuring 20 (or as we SHLOUD have been 30) each year over several years. *** Drake1, We will have (or at least HOPE to have) plenty of F-15C around for another decade & a half (actually the HOPE is to keep 186 of them [& that is IF we got 381 F-22s, not getting more F-22s will force us to somehow keep more longer] significantly longer than that but I am very sceptical of the air wothyness, much less the combat worthyness, of F-15Cs built in the 1980s will have beyong 2020) for home defense. And sorry but there aren’t going to be enough F-22 & F-35s to keep the F-15s out of the fight.
	Drake1 July 23rd, 2009 at 10:18 am Drake1, We will have (or at least HOPE to have) plenty of F-15C around for another decade & a half (actually the HOPE is to keep 186 of them [& that is IF we got 381 F-22s, not getting more F-22s will force us to somehow keep more longer] significantly longer than that but I am very sceptical of the air wothyness, much less thecombat worthyness, of F-15Cs built in the 1980s will have beyong 2020) for home defense. *************************************** ************************************* It’s obviuos the Air Force is going to keep extending airframe life until something terrible happens, so as to avoid buying anymore legacy whatsover. “The U.S. Air Force is conducting fatigue tests on F-15C/D/Es to assess whether the aircraft are suitable for a service life extension program (SLEP). The fleet is expected to be good for about 8,000 flying hours, and Lt. Gen. Mark Shackelford, military deputy for the Air Force acquisition czar, says a SLEP could take them to 12,000 flying hours. The service is also exploring a SLEP for the F-16, which would take the aircraft from 4,000 flying hours to 8,000 flying hours. Extending the lives of the legacy, fourth-generation fleet is a potentially attractive option as the Air Force faces a shortfall during the transition from F-16s and F-15s to new F-22s and F-35s.” http://www.aviationweek.com/aw/generic/story.jsp?id=news/F15-052609.xml&headline=USAF%20F-15s%20May%20Get%20Service%20Life%20Extension&channel=defense ************************************* ************************************* And sorry but there aren’t going to be enough F-22 & F-35s to keep the F-15s out of the fight. *************************************** The point is not to keep them out of the fight, but allow our new technology like F-22, F-35, and even UAVs to create the conditions for them to operate with a reasonable amount of risk if need be. The Indians have shown in exercises that older airframes with new tech can be formidable in their own right.
	SILVER FOX July 23rd, 2009 at 11:36 am IN 10 YEARS FROM NOW THE F22 WILL BE OBSOLETE AND THE FIGHTER MAFIA BETTER PREPARE TO FIGHT WITH UAV’S WHICH WILL BE MORE EFFECTIVE AND LESS EXPENSIVE THEN THE F22. WHO WILL BE THE ENEMY IN 10 YEARS FROM NOW? WHO KNOWS BUT THE TERROISTS ARE GROWING FASTER THAN WE CAN IMAGINE AND THE F22 IS USELESS AGAINST THEM. lET US SPEND THE MONEY ON IRREGULAR WARFARE, UAV AIRFRAMES AND EQUIPMENT. SILVER FOX SENDS
	frank July 23rd, 2009 at 1:28 pm Blame the procurement weenies. They picked the wrong bird in the early 90s. I was there. After it was the new bird for flight test what they wanted to do as far as data acquisition and processing was just insane. Capabilities weren’t there. Whether or not that slowed flight test and acquisition, I don’t know. They did have to buy a replacement for ARIA to get data downlinked and taped. Bluntly, you can blame management on this one. AFSC, Lockheed, Wright Pat, all the usual procurement suspects. Obviously the adults weren’t in charge over the past 20 odd years. Costs start mounting on a project and usually Congress balks. Not as soon as they should in a lot of instances, but they will pull the plug on the gold plate, no matter how much the PR flacks buzz and they went big time on this one. Now would Northrup have been a better buy, come in under budget? Maybe, maybe not, we’ll never know. Capabilities were about the same.
	Nestor July 23rd, 2009 at 4:05 pm The future of aircraft, manned or unmanned, lies not only in stealth and on-board weapon delivery systems but the ability to penetrate advanced SAM radars, data nodes, and command & control centers — mobile or stationary, and wired or fiberoptic. Future manned aircraft will also need to engage targets with dense defensive structures by controlling unmanned “wingmen” who will go into those heavily defended “bastions” and perform the tasks that even today may result in the loss of one of our pilots. These UAV’s will be, or are, capable to performing high speed evasive maneuvers at the enormous G-force levels that are non-survivable by a human pilot — all with the hyper-fast reaction time needed to evade an advanced SAM or other enemy defensive asset that attempts to destroy it. These manned/unmanned squadrons are the future or may exist today. The F-35 in a highly modifiable, flexible aircraft. The information in Aviation Week journal alone attest to that. If one pays very close attention to the interview with Addison Schonland, who states that he has reliable sources, we have a “capability” flying at this time that exceeds those of the F-22 or perhaps multiply its range and power. Perhaps it is a capability to command and control one or multiple UAV “wingmen”. If that is accurate, then our country has some very advanced stealth aircraft that will cover any deficiency in the F-22 or F-35 aircraft and/or multiply their effectiveness. I pray that this is the reason why John McCain and others are voting for the F-35 over the F-22. It sounds like the F-35 has electronic or other systems whose capabilities far exceed those of the F-22 AND that those internal aircraft assets, or “black boxes” as the lingo goes, can be removed from the airframe to allow the manufacturers to obtain the necessary clearances to export them to our allies. That dramatically lowers our costs. As for exporting the F-22 to Japan, I am opposed given the history of Japanese industry selling advanced military parts and technology to China and Russia. I remember when Toshiba sold Russia the advanced milling technology to manufacture ultra-quiet and efficient nuclear submarine propellers. There are so many Chinese spies in Japan that you might as well export the F-22 to China. Lets learn from history and not repeat our mistakes.
	ColCmdrJohnson;> July 23rd, 2009 at 4:48 pm The raptor is superior in agility to the 35. The president is making a mistake-since it is ultimately agility and speed that decides the winner in any sortie…also we can sell the raptor at a profit to japan et. al. They’re chomping at the bit to pay us twice what they’re worth.
	Rhyno327 July 24th, 2009 at 9:38 am Why not sell it to our allies? The line will be kept open, price will go down, jobs won’t be lost. We need cap[able allies. This is not rocket science. This seems to be a really stupid move. SELL THE PLANE!!
	TJRedneck July 24th, 2009 at 10:09 am I’ll settle this right now. Buy BOTH now and a lot more of them! Oh, we don’t have the money? The hell we don’t, just get rid of WELFARE, ETHONAL SUBSIDIES, MOST FORIEGN AID, QUIT PAYING FOR EUROPE’S DEFENSE THEY CAN DEFEND THEMSELVES, GET TROOPS OUT OF SOUTH KOREA — ALL WE ARE DOING THERE IS KEEPING SK FROM KICKING THE NK’S A$$, GET RID OF CONGRESS’S BENEFITS AND CUT THEIR PAY. I could easily go on with a lot more, that’s just the tip of the iceberg. The President and Congress’s number one priority is to protect and defend our nation! This last election cycle, the people voted for the worst possible leaders who would make that their absolute last priority. And it sure is showing now, BIG TIME!
	Daniel Russ July 26th, 2009 at 10:25 pm I could almost agree with TJ Redneck on a few issues. What would it cost us to close some air bases in Japan, Germany and South Korea? Daniel Russ Civilianmilitaryintelligencegroup.com
	owoyele ibrahim July 27th, 2009 at 5:42 am its nice move.lets see what we gat at the long run
	robert c brenzel, sr July 28th, 2009 at 5:08 pm The guy(s) who say “alright, in 10 years what will be the replacement for the obsolete F-22″ are barely conversant with life as we have come to know it..ANY THING THAT HOPES TO FLY IN 10 YEARS BETTER BE ON THE HANGAR FLOOR AT THE SKUNK WORKS OR IT WON’T FLY IN 10 YEARS. WHAT IS BOUGHT IN THE NEXT 5 YRS WILL BE ALL WE HAVE IN 25 YEARS…the time line for unforseen TODAY enemies with unforseen TODAY capabilities…
	Trophy July 28th, 2009 at 7:23 pm Drake1: “The point is not to keep them out of the fight, but allow our new technology like F-22, F-35, and even UAVs to create the conditions for them to operate with a reasonable amount of risk if need be. The Indians have shown in exercises that older airframes with new tech can be formidable in their own right.” You can’t possibly be talking about the 2004 Cope India exercise? That has no relevance in displaying the USAF’s F-15’s capabilities, as that exercise was not conducted at top levels. For starters the F-15’s fielded AIM-7’s, and not AIM-120’s. The AIM-7 is an older missile for which the AIM-120 replaced, as it is entirely inadequate against superior enemies since it lacks fire-and-forget capaabilities. They also lacked the exclusive use of AWACS capability, with AWACS instead operating with both forces… as the IAF lacked indigenous AWACS capability. The F-15’s sent also lacked the AESA radar upgrade… which would have allowed them to jam IAF aircraft radar, and the IAF aircraft wouldn’t have known they were being tracked or locked onto.
	CHEF WILLIAM gIBSON July 29th, 2009 at 6:20 am IF WE DON’T KEEP OUR EDGE SOMEONE ELSE WILL CUT US DOWN! WE MUST START TALKING ABOUT WHAT TREASON IS.……HOW TO STOP TRAITORS.……
	pennst98 July 29th, 2009 at 9:08 am Well I’m glad that for many who post here logic and facts aren’t getting in the way of good bullsh**. (right CHEF..) There are two completely different and nonsense arguments for pushing forward with more F-22 production. 1) We need it because without it foreign air forces will dominate the skies, sleep with our wives, and give us all socialized medicine. RESPONSE: uhh.…ok, name one air force that could even muster enough capability, range, and firepower to challange our F-16’s??? And even if they could what about air defense assets and THE 187 F-22’s WE ALREADY BOUGHT!!?? Besides it’s not like we wouldn’t turn wherever they came from into a smoking hole with retaliatory action. Hmm…logically and doctrinally bankrupt. Anyone else??? 2) Agument 2 is “if we don’t build it…SOMEONE ELSE WILL.” The enemy is just on our heels.…we need to hurry our we’ll all find ourselves wearing animal skins while the enemy flys around in hovercraft with laser beams!!! RESPONSE: Let me get this straight.…some other country, spenidng 1/10th and sometimes 1/20th what the US does in R&D and air power, is going to surpass us in stealth and avianics when we already have by some estimates a 10-15yr lead????!!! We’ll spend (and will spend) trillions of dollars to modernize are air/ground forces and WE’RE STRUGGLING! Explain to me how turd farmers, “rogue state actors” and corrupt petrostates with no funding are going to do it?? Whether or not we fund either jet is irrelevant to our saftey or survival. You can argue we should or shouldn’t keep working on it, but you can’t aruge armageddon if we don’t.
	pennst98 July 29th, 2009 at 11:43 am Since I was censored the first time, I’ll resubmit my comments with less sarcasm. There are two completely different and nonsense arguments for pushing forward with more F-22 production. 1) We need it because without it foreign air forces will dominate the skies, sleep with our wives, and give us all socialized medicine. RESPONSE: uhh….ok, name one air force that could even muster enough capability, range, and firepower to challange our F-16’s??? And even if they could what about air defense assets and THE 187 F-22’s WE ALREADY BOUGHT!!?? Besides it’s not like we wouldn’t turn wherever they came from into a smoking hole with retaliatory action. Hmm…logically and doctrinally bankrupt. Anyone else??? 2) Agument 2 is “if we don’t build it…SOMEONE ELSE WILL.” The enemy is just on our heels….we need to hurry our we’ll all find ourselves wearing animal skins while the enemy flys around in hovercraft with laser beams!!! RESPONSE: Let me get this straight….some other country, spenidng 1/10th and sometimes 1/20th what the US does in R&D and air power, is going to surpass us in stealth and avianics when we already have by some estimates a 10-15yr lead????!!! We’ve spend (and will spend) trillions of dollars to modernize are air/ground forces and WE’RE STRUGGLING! Explain to me goat hearders, farmers,“rogue state actors” and corrupt petrostates with no funding are going to do it??
	roland August 25th, 2009 at 5:26 pm Its a bird, its a plane, its F-22. I think its a work of art. Let’s just have both of them F-22 and F-35. But make all parts made in USA.