Influential Australian counterinsurgency adviser, David Kilcullen, says the Obama administration risks a Suez style disaster if it fails to deploy the troop numbers requested by Afghan commander Gen. Stanley McChrystal. The deep divisions within the administration and the long delay in answering McChrystal’s plea for more troops has created deep concerns among NATO allies and has presented an exploitable opportunity for the Taliban, Kilcullen tells Britain’s Guardian newspaper.

The American battle for Sadr City in 2008 and the Israeli war in Gaza later that year are being held up as models for future fights against irregular opponents. We take a look at some of the key lessons learned from both operations as well as an important factor that may limit where they can be replicated.

UPDATED: Gates Shop Leaks When It Suits Em, Says Loren Thompson

Defense Secretary Robert Gates really hates people talking out of school. Remember his non-disclosure agreements he required senior military and civilian defense leaders to sign? Well, on his way to Oshkosh to visit the company making the M-ATV today, the former spymaster threatened to fire anyone who shares information on the current debate about the Afghanistan strategy and last week’s shootings at Fort Hood, Texas. “I am appalled by the amount of leaking that has been going on,” Gates told reporters on the plane to Oshkosh, Wisc.

Updated: New “Gates Option” said to be Pentagon’s preferred choice.

Conflicting reports continue to come from the Pentagon and the White House as to whether Obama will give McChrystal his requested reinforcemnts. We take a look at where things stand nearly two months after McChrystal requested more troops.

Erin Conaton, presumptive undersecretary of the Air Force, is the outgoing majority staff director of the House Armed Services Committee. I’ve known Erin — not well since she is always working — and the Pentagon’s gain is great. Erin is passionate about the job of ensuring that America fields the best military possible. She also understands the crucial political limits of what can be done.

The man at the pointy end of the spear of missile defense and of nuclear weapons warned today that the US must carefully weigh any increase in missile defense — particularly on the West Coast — to avoid triggering a “destabilizing” reaction by the Peoples Republic of China. “We have to be cautious about missile defense…[which] can be destabilizing if you are not careful,” said Air Force Gen. Kevin Chilton, commander of Strategic Command and one of the military’s brightest brains. When the US places anti-ballistic missile assets on the West Coast, “What does it make the Chinese think…?” he asked.

A report by GAO cites enemy initiated attacks in Afghanistan as a useful metric showing a deterioriating security situation there. Yet, increased contact with the Taliban results from more troops moving into more areas and aggressively patrolling. It raises the question of what metrics should be used to measure progress in guerrilla wars.

When Senators Carl Levin and John McCain drew up the Weapons Systems Acquisition Reform Act, it’s hard to believe they knew they would help reshape an industry. But that is exactly what is happening as a result of the conflict of interest provisions written into the bill. Proof of that came this weekend with Northrop Grumman’s announcement that it was unloading its TASC unit and selling it for $1.65 billion in cash to an investor group.

The Pentagon has performed a study or two that found each of its acquisition programs will have to spend about $90 million to comply with the recently passed defense acquisition reform bill, sponsored by Senators Carl Levin and John McCain. I understand several people at the meeting laughed when told this figure, guessing that if this is the official estimate at this early stage then the actual costs will be a heck of lot higher.

Supporters of an escalation in Afghanistan argue that only a troop intensive counterinsurgency there can prevent a spillover of the fighting into neighboring Pakistan, a much more strategically vital country. CSIS’s Rick Nelson warns that an expanded offensive in Afghanistan risks pushing more militants into Pakistan, worsening stability there and ultimately hindering efforts to eliminate Al Qaeda.

UPDATED: Shooter Cried “Allahu Akbar — God Is great — Before Firing. Questions Arising About Possible Militant Views.

Tragedy has struck Fort Hood, the kind that will weigh on the minds of Americans for months, and be remembered for years. At least 12 people were killed and 31 wounded in a pair of shootings Thursday at the Fort Hood Army base in Texas, the Army says. Some late reports indicate the shooter was an Army psychiatrist who was about to be deployed.

Frustration over the Obama administration’s delay in sending more troops to Afghanistan is mounting among the hawkish set inside Washington. At an AEI conference yesterday, some of the same folks who had a hand in promoting the Iraq surge back in 2006 called for an even bigger troop surge in Afghanistan, warning that any delays risks certain defeat.

“I believe that the US at the moment does not have the political will, nor the public understanding and commitment to do what is necessary in Afghanistan.” Those are the words of Muqtedar Khan, director of the University of Delaware’s Islamic studies program, testifying Monday morning before the House Armed Services subcommittee on oversight and investigations.

In what appears to mark a major shift in Chinese military and arms control strategy, the head of the PRC’s air force has said in an official interview that military operations in space are an “historical inevitability.” General Xu Qiliang said that, “As far as the revolution in military affairs is concerned, the competition between military forces is moving towards outer space… this is a historical inevitability and a development that cannot be turned back.”

Two Australian military thinkers take a crack at the tough nut that is Hezbollah like hybrid enemies and come up with a manuever concept that seeks to restore striking power to the offensive. They envision swarms of small teams to probe and infiltrate a defender coupled to precision strike and superfast kill chains.

OSD is sponsoring tests of a new system designed to defeat RPG warheads, called TRAPS, it deploys airbags around a vehicle that neutralize incoming warheads. TRAPS manufacturer Textron says the system has proven succssful in recent live fire tests.

The second engine for the Joint Strike Fighter needs a fancy lug nut redesigned and should be back up on the test stand by the end of the year, a GE spokesman says. The program has been dogged by rumors that it faced a potentially significant redesign of its combustor but the real problem lies with a lug that attaches the diffuser to the cumbustor, GE spokesman Rick Kennedy said Tuesday morning.“The actual combustor will not have to be redesigned,” he said.