UPDATED: Veteran Pentagon Watcher Predicts Budget Gridlock if Gates Leaves And GOP Wins House and Heritage Analyst Comments

We humbly offer a few events and trends to watch over the next two years, since one year is far too short in the defense world, as any budget weenie can tell you. What to watch: Gates on his way out the door; the November elections; the struggle in Af-Pak; the intelligence wars. First, Defense Secretary Robert Gates may leave. The rumors have been that he would go just before the next budget is announced.

Predicting the end of a regime, especially one led by ruthless and wily survivors, always poses great risks to the prophet of doom. But the Iranian regime meets almost all of my indicators for the end of a government. First, there are persistent reports that some of the security forces are refusing to use lethal force against their compatriots. On top of that, several news accounts have said that members of the security forces have been forced to surrender to crowds. One particularly noteworthy example had security forces “cowering” as angry crowds confronted them in the capital.

The Pentagon gave Boeing a nice Christmas present – approval by the Defense Acquisition Board on Dec. 24 of the remnants of the Future Combat System to equip one Brigade Combat Team for test and evaluation.]This tentatively clears the way for the crucial FCS network to go ahead, as well as technologies such as the Small Unmanned Ground Vehicle, the Class 1 Block 0 Unmanned Air System, Unattended Ground Sensors and the Non-Line of Sight Launch System. But the DAB also imposed important conditions, said a source familiar with the program.

The head of Air Force ISR — the guy who oversees Predator training and equipping — says that the Predator data that was broadcast in the clear and intercepted by bad guys in Iraq did not have “significant impacts” on US operations. That’s what Lt Gen. David Deptula said. “Nothing is compromised. I want to get information out to the joint forces on the ground, you follow me? If someone does pick [the video feed] up and they don’t know the context of how the information is being used, what’s the compromise?”

Boeing Integrated Defense Systems, India head, Dr Vivek Lall told Manu Sood, Editor of 8ak, that he expects $31 billion of defense business in India in the next 10 years. Since it’s commonly suggested in business circles that India will spend $100 billion on weapons acquisitions in the next 10 years, this seems to be an ambitious 30 percent market share.

How do you counter a “low signature” adversary that hides among the population and in complex and urban terrain? An emerging Israeli-U.S. concept explores “distributed manuever,” multiple small combined arms units striking simultaneously at an enemy, to force the hidden opponent to raise his signature level to a detectable and targetable level.

There were 28 lap­tops lost or stolen in the last four months and 66 in total since January 1, 2009. Looking back over the last 4 years there were 658 that van­ished. A major hunt is now on in London after a lap­top crammed with secret data was stolen from inside the Ministry of Defense (MoD) nerve cen­ter. FROM THEIR HEADQUARTERS!

Today, BAE said GAO’s findings that the Army’s FMTV competition was flawed means Army and OSD senior leadership must step in and redo the competition, that according to Dennis Morris, president of BAE’s Global Tactical Systems. He called Oshkosh’s price quote “unbelievable,” and said it’s actually less than BAE’s costs to build.

Updated: With comments from Oshkosh Defense VP. GAO has released its full report on the Army’s $3 billion FMTV competition that surprised many observers by giving the contract to Oshkosh. It found the competition flawed in its evaluation of whether Oshkosh has the key tooling and equipment needed to build the trucks and in evaluating Navistar’s past production performance. Oshkosh says GAO’s report vindicates their low cost bid and truck building capability.

The Army recently took a big step forward in its quest for the “holy grail” of battlefield network connectivity: providing satellite imagery, video feeds from aerial drones, text messaging and more robust communications to small networked teams on the move through rough terrain. The idea is to create a platoon or smaller unit computer “cloud” that can move with the soldier as they move, providing communications and connectivty between each other and higher headquarters even when dispersed.

Just in time for the spring offensives in Afghanistan and Pakistan, the Air Force should deliver the marvelously named Gorgon Stare sensor. The first three Gorgon Stare pods, mounted on Reaper MQ-9s, will make to Afghanistan around March or April, LT. Gen. David Deptula told reporters this morning. Gorgon Stare uses five electro-optical and four infrared cameras to take pictures from different angles. Those are put together to build a larger picture. Perhaps its biggest advantage will be the ability to provide 10 video images to 10 different operators at the same time.

IEDs and mines were favorite weapons of the Afghan mujaheddin used to lethal effect against the Soviets during the 1980s. According to sources, the Soviets lost 1,995 soldiers killed and 1,191 vehicles to mines and IEDs during their eight year long war in Afghanistan with many thousands more wounded. The Soviets never did come up with an effective counter to IEDs and continued to suffer losses to the bombs until they fled Afghanistan.

Cyber insecurity has become such a seri­ous issue that President Obama recently ordered a thor­ough review and the devel­op­ment of a new approach to inter­na­tional cyber policies. One of the more sig­nif­i­cant actions resulting from this was the decision to begin talks between Russia and the United States. Back on 12 November, a Russian del­e­ga­tion led by Gen. Vladislav Sherstyuk, a deputy sec­re­tary of the Russian Security Council, flew to Washington for a meet­ing with rep­re­sen­ta­tives from the U.S. National Security Council and the State Department, Defense Department and the Department of Homeland Security.

Defense Secretary Robert Gates wants former Defense Secretary Bill Perry as co-chairman of the congressionally mandated QDR oversight panel. Perry, now a professor at Stanford University and fellow at the Hoover Institution, is one of the most respected defense wise men and boasts a wide network of former colleagues and admirers. A source familiar with the panel said Perry would be the Democratic co-chair, leaving Gates still to find a GOP member after former Sen. John Warner withdrew from consideration.

UPDATED: Army Leaders “Reviewing” GAO Decisions and BAE Comments On Unique Cab Design

In yet another strike at the heart of the Defense Department’s acquisition system, the Government Accountability Office issued a ruling today that the Army made fundamental mistakes when it awarded the Family of Medium Tactical Vehicles (FMTV) contract to Oshkosh. In the words of one analyst who closely watched this $3 billion competition, “the Army conducted an incomplete, unprofessional review of the proposals from BAE Systems, Oshkosh and Navistar,” said Loren Thompson, defense consultant and analyst at the Lexington Institute.

President Obama has committed to a major new phase of the Afghan campaign. With the substantial mission expansion comes a significant demand for new resources to deal with the most ignored part of operations to the outsider, logistics and sustainment costs. Helos, planes, gas, food, bullets and troops all have to travel immense distances to and within Afghanistan.

The Marines are experimenting with an enhanced rifle company as their primary manuever unit for expeditionary warfare. Its all part of the quest for every smaller, yet highly lethal, units that can fight in dsitrbuted operations against hybird enemies. The big obstacle to making the concept a reality: robust data pipes for on the move command and control on austere battlefields.

The second engine program for the Joint Strike Fighter, beset by technical problems and funding shortfalls, now looks to be delayed by about four months, according to a congressional aide and the General Electric/Rolls Royce team. “I think the delay on the F136 will be at least four months,” the congressional aide said. “It doesn’t help that, with at least a $30 million a month burn rate, OSD is not giving them the money they need.”

UPDATED: JSF Cut About 100 Planes, One Year Added to Schedule

Word on Capitol Hill is that the Quadrennial Defense Review should result in the demise of two Navy carrier groups and the Marines’ Expeditionary Fighting Vehicle. On top of that, the Joint Strike Fighter program is likely to lose a so-far uncertain number of planes and the Air Force looks to lose two air wings. Folks on the Hill are watching the carrier cuts particularly closely. They were willing to accept the temporary loss of one carrier but two groups may just be too much for lawmakers to swallow, though it would conveniently answer the hot debate about whether the Navy faces a fighter gap.