The 1–2-3 is merely the first step.
When the locals attain the ability to protect themselves, they will then have the freedom to pursue and develop the agriculture and economic elements. In the mean time, training and preparing the locals for theses tasks is essential.

Thats the disadvantage of democracy, the leaders have to worry about how your choices make people feel. Being a dictator is much easier in that regard.

Secretary Gates danced around Senator McCain’s question of whether we would withdraw our forces by July 2011– regardless of conditions on the ground. He pressed Gates with this question 4 times before finally getting Gates to admit that the Administration would evaluate in December 2010 whether they can begin a draw down by July 2011.

Senator McCain even went as far as to quote a passage from the Army counterinsurgency field manual . “Counter insurgents should prepare for a long term commitment. The populace must have confidence in the staying power of both the counter insurgents and host nation government” He then asked Admiral Mullen if the planned 2011 date contradicted the manual. He also told Secretary of State Clinton that the committee knows that the State Department’s personnel to operate in the country is severely limited; asking her to submit to the committee a very specific civilian plan (implying it wasn’t up to the standard of the military one). He also mentioned that he has yet to see a comprehensive cohesive plan to implement the civilian side of things.

I thought I would post these humorous words from Álvaro de Vasconcelos, director of the European Union Institute for Security Studies in Paris:

“If the civilian side is as important as the military one — training the Afghan police, judiciary and doing development, which Europeans know very well how to do and consider their main expertise — it will make it easier for European leaders to get support.“
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/12/03/world/03reax.ht…

Contrast those words to the reality:

“Two and a half years after it was started, the European Union’s police training mission in Afghanistan is understaffed, lacks adequate security and transportation, and has yet to develop a uniform training program, according to diplomats and security experts involved in the mission.“
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/11/18/world/europe/18…

Let the UW SOF and Civil Affairs types do their job for once. Give the Civil Affairs what they need other then “empty” promises. You might be surprised how well and fast they are going to do.

The former “Soviet Ground Soldiers” failed by the numbers, and 70% went back home addicted to heroine.

The “Pentagon” has a habit of fighting future “hypothetical wars” with new technologies rather then the war they have. Time to break that cycle, don’t you think?

Either way, in 18 months close up shop and come home.

Food and agriculture can be complex systems. What plants can grow locally that offer maximum nutrition (the flaw I think in us exporting wheat as aid)(example: many mothers in Africa bleed to death giving birth due to iron anemia). How do you store food? Transport food? Protect crops against insects, disease, and critters? How do you cook if no trees, etc? What kinds of skills and infrastructures are needed? How do you build ovens with local materials? All based perhaps on 18-19th century solutions.

Economic development should be locally tailored to terrain, climate, and infrastructure. That does not rule out high tech solutions; in some cases high tech solves logistical and investment hurdles. e.g. solar furnaces are cheaper and faster than thousands of miles of power grids.. My grandmother had a foot-operated sewing machine; it worked well.

Finally, solutions must be locally sustainable. Americans donating hats or shoes sounds impressive, but what is really needed is a local plant woven locally into shoes and hats. 100,000 shoes shipped to 60 million people isn’t a solution.

Much of what the Gates Foundation is doing is simple, cheap stuff (his first aha was he didn’t have enough money to fix worldwide issues). We always seem to think in terms of multi-billion $ investments to make them look like us. They really just want food, an iron cooking pot, and a few hens.

What might the Force Structure look like:

a. The security element stabilizes the AOR and trains the locals in locally relevant self-defense. It is linked to regional assets to counter any enemy surge. Enclaves and overlapping fire bases.

b. The engineering element digs wells/builds dams, builds fortifications, builds sewage system, roads, etc. with local materials to meet local climate conditions and local capabilities, and trains the locals. Generally looking at 19th century technologies, but may be some case exceptions (look at what Indian is doing for rural areas with solar furnaces). They coordinate with other elements to define opportunities (road nets made with local materials may define the need for a quarry which can become an economic opportunity). The discovery of cement partially drove Roman success, etc.

c. The agriculture/economic element sets up the agricultural base with sustainable crops. animals, etc. with local recipes and trains the locals. They link to the strategic central element to coordinate markets, wares, etc. They might define needs for wood fired ovens to make breads, coordinating with the engineering unit to build the ovens (while training locals how to build ovens with local materials). Or pottery ovens or looms to make fabrics, etc. Set-up local garden systems and food processing/storage. This is a variation on the micro-loan concept.

d. The medical element sets up the heath base, giving shots/deworming, and trains locals. In some cases, this might include 19th century solutions like herbs, etc. The medical element might conclude that hats and shoes are critical to health (re blindness and worms) so they work with the agricultural/economic unit to develop local capability to grow materials and locally fabricate. Same for nutrition (60% of the world can’t digest milk). Or many female deaths in Africa are bleeding to death while giving birth due to iron deficiencies.

e. Education/training/cultural element coordinates all training/education focused on the other element’s functional skill needs. Incorporates local culture, religions, and values into courses. This might take some creative reframing. If the religious witch doctor or mullah is the go-to guy then enhance his prestige or his wife’s.

At the end of the day, cultures and infrastructures evolve based on the locale. Look at the history of England. Attempting to force fit 21st Century European systems and solutions misses the point. If the local Witch Doctor is the power center then don’t attack him and try to replace him. Give him new tools while maintaining his/her prestige.

But what happens after you leave? All solutions are probabilities. Success breeds success. Seeds are a better investment than bags of grain that won’t grow locally.

Dialogue is good. Build your own Force Structure. The entire force should deploy in modular CONEX structures.

a. The security element stabilizes the AOR and trains the locals in locally relevant self-defense. It is linked to regional assets to counter any enemy surge. Think enclaves and overlapping fire bases.

b. The engineering element digs wells/builds dams, builds fortifications, builds sewage system, roads, etc. with local materials to meet local climate conditions and local capabilities, and trains the locals. Generally looking at 19th century technologies, but may be some case exceptions (look at what Indian is doing for rural areas with solar furnaces). They coordinate with other elements to define opportunities (road nets made with local materials may define the need for a quarry which can become an economic opportunity). The discovery of cement partially drove Roman success, etc.

c. The agriculture/economic element sets up the agricultural base with sustainable crops. animals, etc. with local recipes and trains the locals. They link to the strategic central element to coordinate markets, wares, etc. They might define needs for wood fired ovens to make breads, coordinating with the engineering unit to build the ovens (while training locals how to build ovens with local materials). Or pottery ovens or looms to make fabrics, etc. Set-up local garden systems and food processing/storage. This is a variation on the micro-loan concept.

d. The medical element sets up the heath base, giving shots/deworming, and trains locals. In some cases, this might include 19th century solutions like herbs, etc. The medical element might conclude that hats and shoes are critical to health (re blindness and worms) so they work with the agricultural/economic unit to develop local capability to grow materials and locally fabricate. Same for nutrition (60% of the world can’t digest milk). Or many female deaths in Africa are bleeding to death while giving birth due to iron deficiencies.

e. Education/training/cultural element coordinates all training/education focused on the other element’s functional skill needs. Incorporates local culture, religions, and values into courses. This might take some creative reframing. If the religious witch doctor or mullah is the go-to guy then enhance his prestige or his wife’s.

At the end of the day, cultures and infrastructures evolve based on the locale. Look at the history of England. Attempting to force fit 21st Century European systems and solutions misses the point. If the local Witch Doctor is the power center then don’t attack him and try to replace him. Give him new tools while maintaining his/her prestige.

But what happens after you leave? All solutions are probabilities. Success breeds success. Seeds are a better investment than bags of grain that won’t grow locally.

Dialogue is good. Build your own Force Structure. I didn’t put in a political/legal section, for example.

If you want a stable, successful population (local, Afghan, or Africa) then the first goal is a country that can feed itself, then a country that is economically self-sustaining, etc. Sort of do you want to win the battle or win the ‘war’? Look at the IRA; what make the difference? Economic development or full jails?

Food and agriculture can be complex systems. What plants can grow locally that offer maximum nutrition (the flaw I think in us exporting wheat as aid). How do you store food? Transport food? Protect crops against insects, disease, and critters? How do you cook if no trees, etc? What kinds of skills and infrastructures are needed? How do you build ovens with local materials? All based perhaps on 18-19th century solutions.

Economic development should be locally tailored to terrain, climate, and infrastructure. That does not rule out high tech solutions; in some cases high tech solves logistical and investment hurdles. e.g. solar furnaces are cheaper and faster than thousands of miles of power grids.. My grandmother had a foot-operated sewing machine; it worked well.

Finally, solutions must be locally sustainable. Americans donating hats or shoes sounds impressive, but what is really needed is a local plant woven locally into shoes and hats. 100,000 shoes shipped to 60 million people isn’t a solution.

Much of what the Gates Foundation is doing is simple, cheap stuff. We always seem to think in terms of multi-billion $ investments to make them look like us. They really just want food, an iron cooking pot, and a few hens.

The Soviets killed something like 1 million Afghans and bombed their agricultural infrastructure back to grass soup.

We have a linear force that is organized, equipped, and trained to fight a similar force in uniform with a front line and a rear area while advancing forward.

The enemy consists of loosely organized citizens who see us as invaders at worse or simply temporary outsiders at best. They have little food and no economy. There is no modern infrastructure. Their loyalties are to their tribe or valley/region (which may or may not be in Afghan). They don’t organize in large forces nor do they wear uniforms. They use opportunity tactics.

So, who exactly are we going to defeat, and how we will know they are defeated?

I’m not even sure the aid strategy is what we want. Recognizing war is largely an economic issue, the Afghans need simple, 19th century interventions. Sanitation, simple roads, water supplies, etc. Investing in massive projects the Afghans can’t maintain to make them look like us (our concept of success) is counter-productive.

Put 5 divisions in the field in uniform and we’ll defeat them. But that isn’t what we face.

If we’re in the Nation Building business then we need to start building organizations and training centers that do that. Where is the State Dept or CIA or Red Cross or Agriculture in CGSC, the War College, or even O-3 training today? Or at the CTC?

For my 2 cents (now worth .00000001 Euro) considering the deteriorating economy, readiness levels of the Army/Marine Corps, complete lack of Generalship/strategic thinking, a corrupt central government partners (Karzai), and soaring budget deficits…….his best option was to end the war. It would have given the Republicans some political ammunition, but it would have been a defendable position in the long run.

Instead he’s chosen to keep limping along without a clear goal or endgame. If you’re going to stay, you need to play to win. Personally I would have declared a draft and called both houses to order to vote on an emergency War supplemental to send 500,000 troops over the next two years to clear, hold, build the dog crap out of the place. it would have been great to see all the chicken hawks try to argue for and against the war at the same time……..

Do it right, or send our troops home.…