QDR’s Author Pushes Back

QDR’s Author Pushes Back

One of the casualties of the mighty snowstorms battering Washington, D.C. was a now-cancelled strategy and force planning conference at the National Defense University this week that was to have included a number of the key players who put together the 2010 QDR. We were particularly looking forward to hear if there was any pushback from the report’s authors on the largely negative reviews.

Fortunately, on a reporter’s conference call last week, DOD Buzz had a chance to ask Kathleen Hicks, deputy undersecretary of Defense for strategy and force planning and the lead QDR author, about some of the pointed criticism aimed at the QDR. She was clearly more than a little irritated by the critical reviews that have poured in since its release.

We asked Hicks how she answered critics who said the strategy review is not forward looking enough and focuses inordinately on the current wars. “It would be nice if we lived in a world with no operational requirements and we could, as we did in the ‘90s, simply focus forward. We couldn’t do that,” she said. “It would be irresponsible… We have men and women in harm’s way, and I don’t think the American public or their representatives would very much appreciate our ignoring the realities.”

Hicks challenged critics to cite specific examples of where the QDR authors failed to address the potential rise of high-end threats. “The QDR explicitly spends a lot of time and energy on these longer-term threats, she said. “We have a whole section of the QDR that talks about the evolution of the force. And we have — again, we have laid out both the pathway and an investment stream that explicitly takes into account the need to deal with those threats.”

She repeatedly said the purpose of the QDR was to “rebalance” DoD’s portfolio to provide more capabilities for the war’s we’re in.

On the now somewhat murky two regional war planning construct that many expected to be dropped in this year’s QDR: “We do not walk away from a two-major-theater-war approach, but we provide a lot more guidance to the services in terms of the particular sets and combinations of contingencies for which they need to be prepared.”

We asked Hicks why the 2010 QDR dropped the phrase “irregular warfare” after it featured so prominently in the 2006 QDR. Irregular warfare “had some trouble translating outside the Department in terms of what we really mean. So we didn’t so much walk away from the use of irregular warfare as try to be much more concrete and descriptive in terms of the elements of irregular warfare that we intend to convey… that’s why you see specific mention of things like stability operations… counterterrorism, and counterinsurgency, which are three of the major elements of what, inside DOD, we often call irregular warfare.”

NDU says they’re rescheduling the two day conference for early March. Hopefully, we’ll be able to bring you more input from the QDR team then.

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Good Afternoon Folks,

The PQR basically gets it right although as I’ve said before it is a meaningless document.

On China, all those peculiar institutions of east coast winger tanks have to counter the PDR are decades old self regenerating myths and long ago disputed lies. I noticed that one of them, Jamestown Foundation, has backed away, and totally reversed itself on it’s position on The Russian Federation this week. A crack in the damn of ignorance.

With out a doubt, the current operations environment MUST have priority over any wish list for a future that exist only in the minds of the defense industry and those who get a paycheck from industry and/or Government consulting contracts for walking the corridors of Congress and the Pentagon selling …I have to stop here because I will be using words that the editors says are naughty.

ALLONS,
Byron Skinner

Byron, I await the day that you can respond to a story without citing “winger tanks”, a disgust for conservatives, and in some form blaming the defense industry for all of the DOD’s woes.

This may shock you, but the comments section doesn’t exist to provide you a never ending platform to voice your repetitious opinions.

The constantly evolving lexicon is amusing…irregular warfare, hybrid warfare, COIN, stability operations. low intensity war, etc. There is no quarreling with supporting the current fight but this OSD regime seems to believe that Iraq & Afghanistan are the end all. Re-balancing to accommodate IW should be a small adjustment vice a draconian downsizing.

You always have to consider you current situation but at the same time think about what could happen next. Problem is no single person — agency — or think tank is capable of forseeing the future (except for gongressmen of course“ha-ha”) yet congress expects us to be able to plan ahead for anything that could happen. The military can handle anything thrown at it, but at the same time they need to refocus thier training. Our current military is soft, yeah they endure hardships, some more than others but for the most part many cant survive if they have to walk too far, cant eat regulary, shower at least monthly, use the net or watch a movie. the military need to go back to forced marches and isolation training, the troops need to learn they wont die from wearing the same clothes for a month straight without bathing, that if they leave thier DS behind they can carry an extra mag of ammo they may need. They need better small unit tactics and trained so that everyone reacts in unison rather than waiting for someone to belt out orders to them (which only makes the guy giving the orders the primary target). I love all our people serving but they need to tighten up and stop expecting a ride everywhere or support from other units being the norm. If our guys are trained and equiped better individualy then there is less need for purchasing one war equipment.

DoDBuzz is a useful site. It’s somewhat unfortunate that a barnacle like Byron has chosen to infect it so that every article sees his bitter hate-filled rants as the first comment, typically just a few minutes after the article is posted. Obviously not a man with a rich social life.

I do recommend that DoDBuzz consider offering an ignore option for odious Byron-esque commenters. Trolls like Byron leech onto a brand like DoDBuzz and do bring it down.

Byron, personally I like reading your perspective but don’t take that as meaning I usually agree with you.

One problem is that you like to allude to something rather than actually state what you means. So, personally, I have no idea what your “Jamestown Federation” reference means or why I should even care.

I’d have to disagree with you on the QDR being meaningless. I’d happily agree that it is not (and should not be) definitive — but to argue that it has no influence or that it does not usefully reflect the thoughts of an amalgam of people/groups is into the range of silliness.

I would agree that support of current operations is the most essential part of the QDR. But if you don’t look forward you won’t do a good job of going there.

While I fully support properly funding our troops in the field, the disconnect in the Obama/Gates leadership during the last two weeks was quite apparent.

Sukhoi flies the first 5th generation fighter outside of the US sending the military aerospace world into a week of analysis of the aircraft. Mean while back at the ranch, Sec. Gates is crowing about how much better/cheaper Reaper drones are then F-16’s. Does anyone else see a problem here?

So who exactly is ignoring the realities here? Does this myopic focus on funding the present conflicts, while ignoring other potential threats really make us safer as a nation?

A good place to start the re-balancing would be to hire some competent leadership, which seems to be completely absent in the Gates organization today.

Hicks’ response was cogent, reasonable and I don’t blame her for being ticked…

RSF, couldn’t disagree with you more. The Russian so-called 5th generation aircraft is a test shell, and in the best scenario will likely be obsolete before a deployable version even flies. And Gates is a refreshing breeze of grounded leadership after the utter disaster of Rumsfeld…

The QDR has always been more about FYDP justification and less about long range strategy. We have numerous documents that delineate the long range US Security Strategy; President’s National Security Strategy, SECDEF’s National Defense Strategy, CJCS’s National Military Strategy, and the Individual Service Strategies. The purpose of the QDR was not to define strategy but instead to provide the framework to evaluate our FYDP and immediate priorities with our long range security planning. It was supposed to ensure that what we are buying today is the right things we need in the future. However, that has never been the case in the history of the QDR. While the current document is, like the previous QDR’s, more of a justification of existing structure and less of a actual evaluation of the FYDP against the National Security Strategy and is, at least in my opinion, about 50–70 pages too long, it is no worse than previous QDR’s in this regard. Overall, I think it is a reasonable document. Most of the hate sent against the QDR (which is pretty motherhood and apple pie when you read it) should, more accurately, be focused on the FYDP and current budget proposals.

RSF, I fail to understand how the 130 or so operational F-22s that exist today will have a problem dealing with one flying prototype of an aircraft that may or may not be deployed in the next 8–10 years and is by all evaluations projected to be less capable than the F-22. The QDR calls for 6 Air superiority Wings, 10–11 Strike Wings, 6 Marine Air Wings, and 10 Carrier Air Wings as a baseline. Who exactly are you worried about? Today, a Reaper is cheaper and more useful than an F-16 in Afghanistan, how is acknowleding that ignoring reality?

Curt, Reaper ain’t cheaper in a higher threat environment. All the gushing about UAS ignores a couple of basic facts. These UAS are great for a benign threat but the moment any kind of counter-air threat shows up or a sophisticated opponent capable of attacking the up/down link, the UAS is extremely limited. Until we can overcome these tech issues, any talk of “replacing” manned fighters is rank hyperbole

I think Curt was acknowledging the limited role of the Reaper by specifying its role in Afghanistan.

Otherwise, I completely agree with your sentiments. Someday we may be able to make truly autonomous unmanned aircraft and then you may be able to take the pilot out of the cockpit — but I’m not going to hold my breath until it happens…

Even though the QDR is, as always, weak tea and only used in the most general and vague way, it is troublesome that its prime author seems excessively defensive. We know the QDR is a stew of compromises, with an incredible number of contributors, all with biases. There are even contractors providing deep and broad input, for a fee and for free. So, when Ms. Hicks, levitates upon being questioned, all we can do is grimace, with a tiny amount of sympathy felt for her.

Yeah, remember how the MiG 1.44 was going to be an invulnerable superplane?

Good Morning Folks,

It appears that none of you wingers have picked up an a couple of very arguable points that Ms. (hi to my friends in China who just let me know they are connected to the buzz) Hicks left on the table accidently or with intent I don’t know. Since none of you fund them, well since I basically agree with her I will just leave them be.

I so much enjoy all the silliness here form you wingers. I was posting earlier today with some one who follows those peculiar institutions and I’ve been told they are hurting and badly. It seems that the DoD under Mr. Gates has cut off a lot of their access and the word has gotten out to career officers that any association with Heritage, Cato, American Enterprise etc. would not “look good”.

Maybe the thirty year run of these parasites who such off the tax payers hard earned money will end. The best past is they are in self destruction mode Hope springs enthrall.

Some credit for this remarkable success has been given to all of you and you inability to address issues and only do personal attacks. Keep it up folks.

ALLONS,
Byron Skinner

BYRON — Of course any organization that speaks out against the short falls of the administration is put on thier hit list. At the same time they are really spreading the money to anyone who backs them regardless of how corrupt they are abd how much it hurts the tax payers. If you would simply ignore political remarks rather than take them personaly and attack the individuals that posted them, people wouldnt bother to attack you. No wander you recieved a purple heart in NAM, because you dont invoke common sense half the time. If wisdom comes with age you must have been dumber than a rock when you were in NAM. By all means post your opinions but remember they are only your opinion and not gospel, and stop talking down to people you dont even know, stop and think before you submit. We all know politics is a big issue in all of these posts but a bigger issue is the people calling the shots are not in tune with modern combat, what works and what is just hype, and the true needs of the troops, just as you seem at times. I’m not always right myself, but I retired from active duty a couple of years ago and was very involved in what went on over there and still am from going back in my current position and talking daily with the troops back state side, so when I say something is junk is because I saw it myself or have it reported to me by our troops, I dont google info for my remarks.

According to the President’s budget request , OSD operations will cost $2.245 BILLION in FY 2011.

There are 2300 civilians, 400 active-duty military, and a handful of reservists in OSD. Total civilian compensation will be $418. 7 million. ( The average OSD civilian salary will be $171,156.) To help them get all their work done, OSD will also will spend $242.7 million on “Management Professional Support Services,” $130.8 million on “Studies, Analysis, and Evaluations,” $147.2 million on “Engineeering and Technical Services,” $277.1 million on “Other Contracts, ” and $189.1 million on “Other Costs.” ( The remaining $840 million or so will be spent on other stuff.)

Looking at the QDR and other kinds of products OSD produces, I don’t think we’re getting our money’s worth.

Congratulations Boomer and thank you for your service.

I don’t know if Byron has stated his quals in previous posts and don’t know why he loathes FFRDCs like my employer, my stay-involved activity after my military career (and a revolving door job) but it can’t be because they’re all conservative suck-ups like he infers. I can vouch for that. Maybe if I knew his background I’d cast him as something more than the left coast antagonist he is.

My advice to you and others here is to quit paying attention to Byron. You already understand his point of view and his biases or predisposed positions so there’s very little to be learned. I admit I agree with him on a few issues, very few though and he’s obviously very intelligent but he doesn’t write to inform, he’d rather inflame. Don’t let him get to you. He’s a nag and too predictable for the most part so let him be. All of you.

Hitch Hiker — you are absolutely correct, and for the most part I take all he posts in stride. But some times he says things that really get me going. So do some of the others, like I said politicians are the reason behind this mess but you cant go pointing fingers at one party the way he tends. I’m sure he is a good guy and I give him credit for serving in NAM as he has claimed.

Good Evening Guys,

I’m lovin’ it. You personal attacks is just making it easier to ride the DoD of these parasites. The readers of this site and there are many understand the lengths that these peculiar institutions will take to keep feeding at the public trough, but that through is getting smaller and smaller. now its tank eat tank for the remaining morsels.

Corporate cannibalism.

Since I’m posting under restricted rules of engagements, I can’t respond to you vile personal attacks, but hey that’s OK. So come on folks, help out more personal insults, did you forget I’m a liberal, that should be worth something.

ALLONS,
Byron Skinner

Good Evening Boomer,

Your right I wasn’t an REMF, I was a RA (11B) rifleman. I would guess that’s something you wouldn’t have any first hand knowledge of.

ALLONS,
Byron Skinner

Ah, lets get back to the topic on hand OK?

“RSF, I fail to understand how the 130 or so operational F-22s that exist today will have a problem dealing with one flying prototype of an aircraft that may or may not be deployed in the next 8–10 years and is by all evaluations projected to be less capable than the F-22″.

Curt, are you sure that one prototype is flying at this time? There is an open debate in aerospace world as to where the PAK-FA program really is. Looking at the many photos released of the supposed first flight there are pretty strong indications that there are possibly several T-50’s flying at this time, so this entire first flight PR story is actually a cover on what is a very secretive program. On the topic of being deployed, what you should remember is that the project is not being bankrolled by Russia, its being driven by Indian money. India is planning to buy several hundred two seat versions of the PAK-FA, and the driving force is the arms race now in full swing between China and India. So yes it will be deployed, and if they make them for India, do you really think that they won’t be sold to others?

On the topic of capability, I am not saying that the PAK-FA is more capable then the F-22, We simply don’t know enough at this point to hazard a guess. In looking at the design we can say a few things for certain:
1. It is very fast, with the capability to supercruise.
2. Its level of stealth appears to be closer to the F-35 then the F-22 (from the front profile).
3. It will have a very large combat radius due to its huge internal fuel capacity.
4. It has unusual moving leading edge extensions that when combined with advanced 3D TVC (thrust vectoring) will make it a nightmare in a dog fight.

The Raptor at this point has something like a 130–0 kill ratio against US/allied fighters in mock combat. If we make a conservative guess as to how effective the PAK-FA is vs. the F-22, and say its only 50% as good, this fighter if built in large numbers will change the balance of air power in the coming years.

And what happens when a USN Carrier flying Super Hornets and F-35’s is deployed to a hot spot in the world populated by PAK-FA’s in the coming years? Neither the Super Hornet or the F-35 have the A2A performance capabilities to take on the PAK-FA. Will we have to fly in F-22’s to fly cover for all USN carrier operations in the future? Do you still think that 187 Raptors are enough now?

What countries are we talking about anyway? Please name one potential threat that can afford the fighter in numbers greater than 12 outside India and Russia (who I don’t see as an adversary in the next 20 years or so). North Korea? Venezuela? Iran? please. As for what happens on the USN Carriers. First, Tomahawks and JASSM chew up the runways and destroy the aircraft on the ground, dislocate the air defenses networks, and destroy the C2 nodes. F-35, supported by E-2Ds/F-18EFs/EA-18Gs/MALDs take out the rest so that any remaining PAK-FAs are unsupported. F-35Cs, F-18E/Fs, and ships with SM-6, supported by E-2Ds/EF-18Gs, overwhelm and take out any airborne threats because they are both outnumbered and out-sensored.
Do you really think we will line up the aircraft so that the enemy can take them on one at a time? It is not about just the fighters. The days of one on one combat ended with WWI and the fact that an aircraft is slightly better at dogfighting in not so relevant anymore, especially with the capability of off-boresight missiles. Whoever is seen first loses and right now I don’t see that changing.

Or for that matter how the Mig-25 was an invulnerable superplane.

Byron — come on troop, stop goading everyone into personal or political attacks is all I’m asking you for. Every one is in agreement that the govt is and has messed things up, it is not restricted to one paticular party. You can not seriously believe that the dems are any better than repubs, you are very well versed so you have to remember that the dems were in power during NAM, they did nothing to support you there or back here on the home front. JFK sent you guys in there to help recapture control of the south for the French who had basicly enslaved the south (and something we are supposed to be against/ in fact Hochi min asked us for help from the french in the 50’s and we turned him down), and when the french pulled out and said let us know when it is safe to come back — instead of bringing you guys home he left you there. You should also recall that the militray did no real improvements in equipment or technology and went through considerable down sizing, we entered with old broken outdated equipment and it was only the heart and fortitude of you guys that got the job done. So you should realize how we need to keep updated and maintain a strong military. No I was never a rifleman, and I never recieved a purple heart, that doesnt mean I was never shot or injured — it just means I did things that never really happened in places that I had never been, and when I was in a declared combat zone I was dam lucky to have a good team of guys who watched each others backs. The govt is messed up — leave party affiliation and finger pointing of them out of it.

Just ignore that Byron character. He feeds off of everyone’s replies. Starve him. It’s easy to do.

Back on topic. The QDR is a restatement of a multitude of philosophies. But it severely lacked more emphasis on those insurgent like activities between the U.S. and non-state players. Insurgencies are the norm, not WW2 force-on-force actions. So stating that we organize and fight the current fight is good. But it needed more flesh. On the other hand, the QDR restated too much about maintaining the current conventional forces.

The only real thing I learned in graduate school was — when all else fails, reorganize, because it has the appearance of progress. That’s what I see going on inside DoD. Nobody is paying attention.

You win wars by killing the enemy, plain and simple. You do that with ground troops. Sending in UAVs so we can do the Vietnam body count all over again will not win any war. We need less technology and more boots on the ground. But we think we can win because we have more money to buy more military toys. How arrogant. I wanted to see a plain talking QDR about risk we will be facing and all we got was puffery and hot air for the status quo.

The sad thing is that I believe at one time he used to give somewhat coherent comments. Apparently watching MSNBC nonstop has melted his brain…

After reading many of the comments above and participating in past QDRs and biennial this-and-that studies, I was prompted to look at Merriam Webster’s Definition of recycle. In the past 50 years of military service, civilian industry, and other Government work, every report and standard looks backward in order to forecast the future. I can’t say for sure how often the forecasting has been accurate. I’m in total agreement with those who state it is time for a change in the way we conduct Government business and what is in the QDR fails miserably to provide that kind of foresight.

I am new to the QDR, so I don’t have a lot of experience. I have been involved in developing my agency’s long-range threat assessment and it attempts to look out 20 years. I found this to be a daunting task, like trying to predict the future. One of the things I had to do was take a look at past assessments from other agencies (we had never done an assessment of such magnitude).

A smart man, for whom I have great respect, used to say that the best predictor of future performance is past performance; this doesn’t wholly apply here, but I believe it has merit. One must reflect on recent history or performance to get a perspective on the future. The past is somewhat of a foundation on which the future is built.

Ultimately, the QDR is a four-year look at what is important to the DoD and its relativity to the security of the nation. Many people have criticized this global war on terrorism for its focus on high-tech material to fight this irregular war in which we are involved.

The problem is that, in retrospect, 9/11 threw Joint Vision 20xx off plan. There was no Plan B. And the reality is that there can be no Plan B without a significant increase of defense spending over GDP. For this administration, that is an unacceptable solution. Rumsfeld drove the whole thing with the brakes on while he was in office, and now the current team is basically trying to put the engine into reverse to see if they can back out without throwing a rod. Fact is, we’re just stuck. The other fact is that a realistic approach would not be to thrash around, but just slow down a bit and accept the inefficiencies and capability gaps for what they are.

What i really want to know is why the Dems haven’t put in their first team, people like Slatkin and O’Hanlon who hail from that in-side the beltway crowd, are nowhere to be found this time out. Ivo Daadler is Ambassador to NATO, that would be pretty much it out of Haas’s old shop at Brookings. This is not defense, strictly speaking, but is the only reason that Nancy Soderberg is cooling her heels down in Jacksonville that she worked for Bloomberg and her husband does business with the UN ? Maybe this is politics as usual, but, as long in the tooth as the Bush 43 team was, it doesn’t help to see how little real experienced talent came in this time, after the nation spent 8 long years training the Clinton Administration in how to manage our national security.

When I read about the QDR, I called in my daughter, who is 21 years old, and said to her, “This is on you. In ten years you’ll be 31 and the chickens will come home to roost. I’ll be nearing retirement, and this will be your problem to fix.” She acknowledged what I said to her, but then later she asked me why the USA has to exercise its influence all over the globe. If you don’t have that commitment, on what and where and when and why you use military force, arguing over the “how” to use it does not make much sense.

Bill R,

Your daughter is on target and brighter than most politicians and generals and admirals. She’ll do well.

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