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Dems Face Doom in House

By Colin Clark Friday, August 20th, 2010 12:10 pm
Posted in Policy, Rumors

Washington’s most respected election analyst, Charlie Cook, is now calling the House for the Republicans. And he’s predicting not just a close race, which had been the call of most analysts until now, but is predicting a so-called “wave” election, one where the party in power is swept away. Cook spoke with the Wall Street Journal.

Before GOP tribalists begin crowing and dancing the sacred dance of victory, Cook cautions that he does not think the GOP is likely to win the Senate. And, with all respect to my many friends in the House, the Senate is what really matters when the other party holds the White House. Why? Every Senator has the enormous power to just say no — such as putting holds on nominations or using procedural means to gum up the works or — and control of the Senate would give the Republicans the ability to push through legislation they might not be able to otherwise. Not to mention the symbolic power of a GOP victory in both houses.

Given all that, let’s consider what the Republicans are likely to focus on should they gain the bully pulpit of controlling the House Armed Services and House appropriations defense bodies. top of the list will be protecting defense spending from what some GOP leaders believe is an overeager Robert Gates and a left-leaning Democratic Party eager to strip defense money and spend it on social programs.

The other area likely to receive increased attention is oversight of Afghan strategy. Some senior GOP leaders have worried about the rules of engagement, which they think were foisted on Gen. Stanley McChrystal, the former commander, by the White House. When Gen. David Petraeus issued his new rules of engagement in late July they were, arguably, even tougher in restricting the use of force. If they hear comments from troops that they are confused by the new ROEs or feel overly restricted by them, expect Republicans to hammer away at this.

But it’s early days yet. Most aides are on vacation and most lawmakers are on the hustings or fund raising. Have a look at the Defend America statement House GOP leaders put out earlier this year for some insight on what they will bring to the election discussion on defense issues. Hopefully, GOP views will become sharper the closer we get to the elections.

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	Drake1 August 20th, 2010 at 3:58 pm I doubt it. If they are having trouble taking down Harry Reid, they likely won’t take the House.
	Aurora August 20th, 2010 at 4:53 pm The Republicans are running a weak candidate against Harry Reid, and even then they just may pull it off. This election is largely irrelevant to the House races. There are a lot of red districts that went blue do to disaffection with the economy and the Bush administration the last time. They will likely revert back to Republican hands. How many? Who can say at this point with any certainty.
	CharlesHouston August 20th, 2010 at 4:58 pm The Republicans may have the same problem as the Democrats have — people vote their pocketbooks and yet the ability of the government to influence the economy is minor! Right now the Republicans can get the benefit of the weak economy but in two years if it is not better — good bye new guys. And if it is better in two years — the Democratic President and Senate have a much better chance of holding on to their jobs.
	Mike Burleson August 20th, 2010 at 5:09 pm Even if they take both Houses, it won’t matter. The deficit will trump all future plans, including defense.
	Drake1 August 20th, 2010 at 5:32 pm Look at the candidates the Republicans are fielding in both the House and the Senate in some of those elections. Not being a Democrat can only carry you so when your parties negatives are just as high as your opponents. I agree with you that no one knows what will eventually transpire– even Cook.
	clovisman August 20th, 2010 at 6:08 pm Everything will change back as soon as a few of the GOP’s finest gets thrown in jail, along with the soon to be imprisoned Democrats. I can hope that we get a hung congress. That way we will only spend what we need too and only legislation that is really needed gets though.
	William C. August 20th, 2010 at 6:09 pm We can only hope. I am many of those who voted for “hope and change” regret casting their vote on some pretty speeches.
	HasBeen August 20th, 2010 at 6:30 pm The odds are good that the Republicans will take the House and not all that bad for the Senate. But there is too much time left for anyone to make solid predictions on the matter. The Democrat party still have access to a lot of money and that may count for a lot in countering the “throw the bums out” sentiment which is so prevalent. It’s also worth remembering that people usually want to throw out the other guy’s bum, not their own. So I’d recommend people neither start mourning nor gloating at this time. It’s really too early to tell.
	Ge0ffrey August 21st, 2010 at 10:14 am 1994 will pale in comparison to the spanking Democrats will receive in 2010. The reaction will be broader and deeper than anyone ever imagined and happen in places no one would have believed possible.
	Dave Durfee August 21st, 2010 at 10:50 am my opinion is simply a divided house, tea party like minded folk will only split the republican vote, and if the dem’s are successful in getting their loyal voter’s out, I believe the dem’s will hold out. If you look at the money the dem’s have raised over 11m and the rep only 5.6 is what I heard this morning. And if you look at Gates thinking and not the media spin, he’s actually pretty smart. One of Obama’s good decision’s to keep him around.
	Carl Brewer August 21st, 2010 at 10:52 am I wish we were smart enough to vote them all out and start over but somehow we seem to put the same crooks back in. We in east Tn have had the same family in congress sinse 1974 and have another son who will run when his dad dies and will be elected. After that I’m sure his son will step in. They have done a pretty good job but it’s a shame that it is a family that owns the position.
	mike j August 21st, 2010 at 8:05 pm Well, you hit it on the head. “All politics is local.” They’re a bunch of crooks, but dammit, they’re OUR crooks. Maybe we could trade off? We’ll vote for your next Rep, you vote for some California district and so on, and then it gets reshuffled by lottery for the next election. Suddenly, hoarding all that pork for their district doesn’t look like such a big plus. Silly idea, I know. We can’t seem to even get half the voters to care in most elections anyway. In any case, I’m not voting for the incumbent(s) next time, nor their major-party opponent. I urge everyone to do likewise. Pick someone civic minded, draft ‘em if you have to. Things can’t keep going like they are.
	Tenn Slim August 22nd, 2010 at 3:26 am Opine 1. G. Soros Secry of State project will so impede the actual November election, that I seriously doubt we will see a viable Congress in Jan. 2010 2. IF the GOP somehow manage to regain the Leadership of the House and NOT the Senate, the Leftist Czars of the OBNA will deem the Congress irrelavent, use the Unspent Stimulus funds to further the Movement Progress. bt There is hardly a Salvation scenario out there. We have bought the Farm, last November election of 2008. end Semper FI We MUST Prevail
	Old man August 22nd, 2010 at 7:37 am The Tea Party must grow in power for any real change in this country. This will only happen when a majority of voters get fed-up with illegal immigration, government handouts, unionism and its high wages and benefits and other issues. Industry and manufacturing must be rebuilt to provide jobs and taxes to reduce our debt. Get government out of businesses and reduce taxes so companies can be competetive on the world markets. China is becoming a world military power. We must maintain a strong military. Our deficit and debt are holding us back. Also, every high school graduate must serve two years in the military.
	HasBeen August 22nd, 2010 at 8:34 am I think I mostly agree with you except for your last sentence. Even then I don’t fully disagree with you… But honestly, today’s military is too technical and professional for it to be a good idea to take all high school graduates. What we should have instead, is a universal draft and all kids go through boot camp and serve 18–24 months under the UCMJ — but only those who are standouts in boot camp and will sign up for a 3–4 year stint would enter the real combat/military forces. The ordinary ones would be sent out to sweep streets, plant trees, paint the base’s buildings, etc. in support of the real military.
	anon August 22nd, 2010 at 1:56 pm You forget the power of the purse. The House can unilaterally refuse to dispense money from the treasury. This power is without any limitation whatsoever.
	roland August 22nd, 2010 at 5:42 pm After all this recessions, national dept and defixits, unemplyment, Afghanistan war and etc, it looks like an independent is more likely to win on the next election.
	Formula August 23rd, 2010 at 8:47 am Everyone is just guessing right now.….it really is too early to tell. This will become a more impressive discussion come the second week in October. By then, we may have a better idea which way each House is leaning.
	D Hanks August 23rd, 2010 at 9:16 am I have become disenchanted with the Republican or Democratic party. 1– No lobbyists should be allowed to give money for elections . I wonder how much money George Washington took? 2– Every Congressman seems to be out for themselves and their party not the good of the USA. Vote everyone out that you feel is in this group. 3– Change parties . I myself have just changed to theVeterans Party. unfortunately we have no veterans running for positions under that party. 4– Vote your conscious. Everyone complains about congressmen voting along party lines but when we elect officials we do the same thing. (Don’t we)? 5– Lets try to get good people in office and get all the riff raff out. Only we the people of this great nation can do that. We have only ourselves to blame for putting them there in the first place. I have spent 25 years in the military ‚with many overseas and this nation in my viewpoint is still the best. But for how much longer?
	William C. August 23rd, 2010 at 11:29 am The Democrats always have money pouring in by the truckload thanks to rich hypocrite liberals. That is normal for them.
	William C. August 23rd, 2010 at 11:32 am Sadly these days only votes for our two main parties are meaningful. As a conservative I intend to vote for the Republicans simply because I prefer my crooks not being media-loved liberals who try to gut the military and push far-left social nonsense while robbing us blind. I would rather our political leaders just rob us blind thank you very much.
	William C. August 23rd, 2010 at 11:33 am I meant to say I am SURE many of those… BTW Forgot to review my comment.
	HasBeen August 23rd, 2010 at 11:44 am I think you may be missing something. There is more a conservative movement at this time than a Republican one. Most conservatives were first blah about Bush 43 and later pretty unhappy with him and his fellow big-spending legislators. So you are seeing a resurgence of conservatism which hasn’t been seen since the Reagan years. So if the Republicans win it is not going to look like the Bushies are back in office. Meanwhile, the Democrats are absolutely killing this economy. The statistics don’t readily demonstrate just how bad things really are. Real unemployment is probably around 17%. Home foreclosures have actually accelerated, credit card costs are going up (due to Democrat reforms) with resultant decreased access to liquidity, many businesses are shifting their profits to this year because next year their taxes are going to be higher meaning that next year’s profits (and tax receipts) are going to go down significantly. Anyway, it just goes on and on if you look critically at what happens. No one knows for sure what will happen in 2011 but unless D.C. policy changes you should bet on another deep recession or possibly even depression. Do also remember that the average recession lasts on the order of 16 months (maybe 18?). Bush and now Obama policies can reasonably assumed to have prolonged and deepened the recession. Also realize that the Fed is buying large amounts of government securities? In this setting it is not unreasonable to make a move to a conservative policy approach which hasn’t been tried in a VERY long time. Remember, people are not running to the Bushies. They’re largely running from the Bushies and the Obamanites.
	mike j August 23rd, 2010 at 12:29 pm That’s one of the most cynical things I’ve seen today. The “Liberal Media” doesn’t exist anymore. They’re a bunch of corporate shills, their political biases are a marketing gimmick– that goes for Fox as much as MSNBC. Turn em all off. Those conservatives you’ve been voting for mostly aren’t, neither are the liberals actually liberal. You got closer when you called them crooks. Snap out of it, for God’s sake.
	political_observer August 23rd, 2010 at 1:10 pm There needs to be a massive change this November 2010 there are too many career politicians holding seats I the Senate and the House. The Democrats have clearly demonstrated the total lack of ability to address the economic issues at hand. They seem to have an agenda which is grossly contrary to the best interests of this Republic. The deficit spending must be stopped because it being spent on pork barrel projects to solely to enhance the Democratic Party’s candidate’s ability to stay in office and that is not what we need. The moderates and conservatives in the Democratic Party must rid the party of the extreme left wing elements who have captured control of the party. Let the leftist go back to the socialist party and see how they fair once the sheep’s’ clothing has been removed. As for the Republicans they had better wake up as well we need to correct the direction in which America is headed to insure we have a government and a society which are in concert with the United States Constitution and not run in the nowhere meandering and dysfunctional manner which the Progressive movement is trying to take this Republic.
	political_observer August 23rd, 2010 at 1:11 pm There is no place for people like Senator Chuck “we can do whatever we want” Schumer (D-NY) and Congressman Alcee “rules what rules we make them up as we go along” Hastings (D-VA) and Speaker of the House Nancy “pass the healthcare bill and then we will know what is in it” Pelosi (D-CA). When she talks on TV she makes no sense – she is 3rd in line for the Presidency – and her hand movements mimic someone singing the song the “itsi bitsi spider” song.
	political_observer August 23rd, 2010 at 1:11 pm These people were elected and swore an allegiance to uphold and defend the Constitution; they may have said the words but did not understanding the meaning. We must insure we get the word out and encourage Americans everywhere to voice their displeasure with this totally partisan administration with an agenda which foreign to our way of life. Vote and encourage others to vote Republican, Democrat and Independent does not matter as long as they believe in the United States Constitution; we must take this country back from the left leaning administration and repeal the healthcare legislation and replace it with something more reasonable and workable.st take this country back from the left leaning administration and repeal the healthcare legislation and replace it with something more reasonable and workable.
	political_observer August 23rd, 2010 at 1:13 pm There needs to be a massive change this November 2010 there are too many career politicians holding seats I the Senate and the House. The Democrats have clearly demonstrated the total lack of ability to address the economic issues at hand. They seem to have an agenda which is grossly contrary to the best interests of this Republic. The deficit spending must be stopped because it being spent on pork barrel projects to solely to enhance the Democratic Party’s candidate’s ability to stay in office and that is not what we need. The moderates and conservatives in the Democratic Party must rid the party of the extreme left wing elements who have captured control of the party. Let the leftist go back to the socialist party and see how they fair once the sheep’s’ clothing has been removed. As for the Republicans they had better wake up as well we need to correct the direction in which America is headed to insure we have a government and a society which are in concert with the United States Constitution and not run in the nowhere meandering and dysfunctional manner which the Progressive movement is trying to take this Republic.
	TIGERONE August 23rd, 2010 at 4:37 pm Ever notice how the politicians change every few years, and yet we are faced with more of the same? Democrats reduce defense budgets, and create debt (Billions, upon Billions) and always blame the Republicans! The Republicans increase defense budgets, grow jobs, reduce taxes, and always blame the Democrats for the predicaments we get into! BLAME THE PREVIOUS ADMINISTRATION WORKS WELL FOR BOTH PARTIES — WE AS TAXPAYERS SEEM TO ALWAYS PAY THE PRICE, NO MATTER WHO IS IN POWER! I URGE EVERYONE TO VOTE IN THE MID TERM ELECTIONS, AND THE NEXT PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION — BUT AS ALWAYS, NOT EVERYONE WILL! The world just continues on, and on, and on! Few bumps along the way — governments & politicians — I wish the governments & politicians, of the world had to fight the wars — perhaps, just perhaps if they did — there would be less WARS and PEACE COULD PREVAIL!
	Old391 August 24th, 2010 at 6:58 am What do these 3 things have in common? DemocRATS and Cutting Spending Obama and Leadership DemocRATS and Jobs Creation They are all Oxymoron’s
	Old391 August 24th, 2010 at 7:00 am You heard the DemocRATS are going to use the “Blame Bush” for the upcoming 2010 elections. Problem is that they are the ones that caused this problem. So Obama blaming Bush, he is Blaming himself
	papa54 August 25th, 2010 at 1:02 am hey man, i agree with a veterans party very strongly. i mean crap a veteran knows what these so called police actions amount to, and once thought on a war on terrorism is a hopped up police action.our own troops placed on trials for murder etc is a shame.if the people in the middle of a war dont wanna get killed, then get the heck outta dodge.. WAR is WAR and when i was in vietnam i saw War and it was hell..i never served 2 tours etc because 1 year in hell was enough for me..
	papa54 August 25th, 2010 at 1:03 am i however do think we the people of this great Republic (remember the pledge of alligeance) should rebuild our armed forces.. it would create jobs in the civilian area and also toss the 11 million plus Mexicans out of country and then there would be jobs for our children to think on. if they dont like one and the pay is poor then theres always another job looking for someone. but as long asthere are mexicans around who work for nothing there will be a loss of jobs.. has anyone ever thought how the mexicans can work so cheap..well heres a first hand look… 1.a couple will rent a house and within a month there will be more in the same house then more n more till the house is over filled and all the monies made is split up amoung the mexicans and sent back to mexico. i had a friedn who rented houses to 2 people that soon had 20 people and the mexicans sleeping all over the floors. now where and how they sleapt wasnt a problem but the house was for 2 people and the bathroom hooked to a sewer line that was not built for 20.
	papa54 August 25th, 2010 at 1:04 am and the democrates know Obama is not American by no means, but they sure would look bad if it ever got out he was not american born and yet the democrates stuck him in office. the man is a Islamic Musilum that just about pulled one man to the floor trying to kiss our enemies azz. saw it on national TV.. he preached 45 minutes about the Koran on national tv..(i timed him) preaching his doctrine. and then had the nerve after being in a so called christian church to stand and say this nataion was not a christian nation.who the h ell does he think set this nation up? how did they go about setting this nation up? what our forefathers knew would one day happen and made plans so it could not. Obama elected ‚what a farce..
	papa54 August 25th, 2010 at 1:04 am yea we need change and now, shut the doors to immigration period for 2 years. get this place back in order. rebuild our armed forces and create hundreds maybe thousands of jobs in and around the military bases. it stirs my american blood to see how low we have become.and if they holler we need more money.„„stop paying all the would be foriegn aids packages.. for humanitarium uses or not. help the people here in the US first.. kick everyone out that can not and does not want to learn English.. IT is our national language.. voted on or not… hows grandfathered in sound.. and last ut not least.if anyone speaks broken english they are not allowed in public office..grrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr lets take back America from the liberals who are giving it away…

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