Chinese Succeed With SLBM Launch: The Week Ahead

Byron Skinner February 6th, 2011 at 5:26 pm

Good Afternoon Folks,

Oh my, my, the PLA is trying to pull as fast one here, “Changcheng”. Lets start back on January 26th. when the 2nd. Artillery launched a DF-21A and it failed (Re, same problem as Russian Topol M, which has been dumped by the Russians) what to do to take the worlds attention off this embarrassment?

Nothing like a “success” to mask a failure. By the way the K-129 was also a Golf hull.

Well you take out the old Russian Gulf boat that had it’s last successful missile test in 1982. Pop off a missile and say you had a ballistic missile test off a submarine and give the story to Norman Polmar, the west’s Naval expert. China can fool some of the experts some of the times but Norman can be fooled all the time.

Lets start with the picture chosen to create the false impression that this might be something other then a Chinese trick. The picture of course is a Xia Class SSBN two made only one can currently be account for most often seen at maritime parades as the above pic for October 2009.

So what did happen, the PLAN (or the 2nd. Artillery) did fire a missile for the old Golf boat, a Changjian 10 ASCM.

Oh my The Heritage Foundation is going to tell what took place between Presidents Obama and Hu, that ought to be something because he wasn’t there.

ALLONS,
Byron Skinner

freefallingbomb February 6th, 2011 at 8:46 pm

To the poster Mr. Byron Skinner

Part 1 / 2

You wrote: “Lets start back on January 26th. when the 2nd. Artillery launched a DF-21A and it failed (Re, same problem as Russian Topol M, which has been dumped by the Russians) what to do to take the worlds attention off this embarrassment? Nothing like a ‘success’ to mask a failure.”

Mask this, it’s U.S. missile technology presently aimed at China:

“JIUPENG, Taiwan – If Taiwan’s unusually public test-firing of 19 missiles Tuesday was intended as a statement following China’s successful trial of a new stealth aircraft, the message came out a bit garbled.
Taiwan’s president was on hand as almost a third of the missiles missed their targets, raising questions rather than reassuring the public about the self-ruled island’s readiness to defend itself against an attack from the mainland. (…)

(Continued)

BOOMER February 7th, 2011 at 7:41 am

1st the Golfs are staelthy hard to find and track boats that can operate in shallow coastal waters; 2nd yes K129 was a golf but we have also lost subs ourselves lets not forget that accidents happen; 3rd any sub with a missile tube is a threat anywhere in the world — you dont have to have world leading class ICBM’s with pinpoint accuracy to launch a nuclear warhead, you just need a launch tube — an engine with approx range — and a warhead, then you parralel the coast list the ship landward and shoot seeking damage to the enemy over concern for accuracy. Remember we had nuclear tipped (nuetron bomb) artillery rounds all up and down the Korean and German borders for years. So yeah — them having launch vessels makes them a threat to anyone they see as a threat to them.

BOOMER February 7th, 2011 at 10:26 am

Now you cant put this all on Barry — Bill helped out a lot when he forced the early retirement of all the 627 & 640 class FBM subs and all the 637 class attack subs then locked us into only a maximum of 10 Ohio class FBM subs at any time (from 41 FBM’s to 10) then he removed all tactical nukes from fast attack subs leaving only the 10 FBM’s in the TRIAD. Repubs had a hand also for allowing offshoring to continue unchecked. The population as a whole is responsible for not speaking up and keeping the government in check over the years while turning a blind eye while things were OK. It took the bottom falling out for a portion of AMERICA to wake up but we still are not screaming loud enough to be heard through the thick walls of the white house and hill.

Cocidius February 7th, 2011 at 2:55 pm

The issue that Byron conveniently skips is how long will it take the Chinese to take this missile technology and convert it to the modern submarine platforms now in production in China? Like the latest production variants of the now seven “Yuan” class subs either in service, or soon to be operational.

http://​www​.informationdissemination​.net/​2​0​1​1​/​0​2/a…

freefallingbomb February 7th, 2011 at 7:04 pm

To Mr. Byron Skinner

Part 1 / 2

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You wrote: “Perhaps ffb you might be able to explain.”

1) About the DF-21s:
The P.L.A. Navy is about to become the World’s first Thousand Ship Navy (third, to be precise: After Agamemnon’s / Menelaus’ and Queen Victoria’s two navies),

(R.Adm, Retired, Eric McVadon dixit) http://​www​.uscc​.gov/​h​e​a​r​i​n​g​s​/​2​0​0​7​h​e​a​r​i​n​g​s​/​t​r​a​n​scr…

but you’re hollering because their first S.L.B.M.s couldn’t fly to Mars? What’s your hurry? Thanks to the Strategic Offensive Reductions Treaty the U.S. American “Trident II” S.L.B.M.s will carry even fewer warheads than the (nuclear-tipped) Chinese DF-21As – still feel like freaking out in ecstasy? What if their S.L.B.M.s are conventionally-tipped, carrier-killing DF-21Ds, not nuclear DF-21As: Do they still not fly far enough to hit their targets from a relatively safe shooting distance?

(Continued)

Byron Skinner February 7th, 2011 at 10:33 pm

Good Evening Folks,

Hi ffb. Your first question is one that has been floating around the US right wing for about five or so years now. Yes ffb, at some point in the not to distant future China will have a (“1000 Ship Navy) over 900 will be surface ships under 100 tons and most of the combat/law enforcement ships will not be under the command or jurisdiction of the PLAN but the PAP.

The only ships that can be confirmed to under construction for the Chinese Military /PAP are 75 Horizon 75 hulls that will come out of the yard unarmed and will be assigned to the People Oceanic Agency (note there is a difference between the Peoples Oceanographic Agency and Peoples Oceanic Agency). One the issue of 1,500 ton hulls are bigger there are actually right now in 2010 few in the water then in 2000 (The Great Wall of the Sea Second Edition, Bernard D. Cole.)

You remark regarding US China policy. I regret to have to give the opinion that I agree with you we had better ties and knew more about China, its peoples, and its intents in 1910 the we do in 2010. In 1910 we had a cadre of bureaucrats, foreign service officers, diplomats ‚military officers and enlisted personal in the Army, Navy and Marines that had spent well over a decade in China, and knew the people, knew the military and the local and national political leaders. This has not been true since the end of WW II.

To make thinks even worse the people who have positions of power in the US doesn’t want to learn about China and are very proud of their arrogant ignorance of anything Chinese. Just read most of the post on the buzz.

The Chinese leadership know far more about American the we do of them.

The melt down that is taking place with in China currently is there for all to see ffb. Foreign Capital in the hands of Chinese is leaving the country, the Government of China has imposed sever restrictions on money flow, exports are declining, the CCP is very quiet, many of the new commercial and academic class are quietly leaving China under the clock or employment or academic interests, the Leadership Under President Hu seems disoriented, at time confused and not in control , his successor VP Xi seems to be an uninspired choice and any support with in the CCP is eroding.

The PLA and politburo seem to be disconnected from the CCP. There is old guard PLA officers that are only in their 60’s being passed over by those in their 40’s for leadership billie in the PLA and CCP. The PLA is distancing itself for its own sub organizations the PLAAF and the PLAN. These are all signs of trouble. It really looks as bad as the American Republican Party.

The PLA wants a bigger slice of the economic pie. it didn’t like have to give up it’s economic role under Hu. The problem the Chines economic numbers are all trash. Real nominal GDP could be overstated by as much as 50% or $4.5 trillion dollars The Bank of China is hold a lot of toxic collateral much the same as derivatives were a couple of years ago in the west and the 1970’s in Japan.

Add to all of this two years of sever crop failures and a population of about 500 million not happy agrarian peasants who feel that they have been left out of the economic bubble of the past 30n years.

I don’t think it would take much of a internal spark to set China off.

ALLONS,
Byron Skinner

@niubi February 8th, 2011 at 1:23 am

if you read the original chinese it sounds like the sub launched missile test was in 1982
http://​military​.china​.com/​z​h​_​c​n​/​i​m​p​o​r​t​a​n​t​/​6​4​/​2​011…
历史记录了这庄严的一刻：1982年10月12日15时，随着一声震撼世界的口令，运载火箭以雷霆万钧之势破浪而出，在碧海蓝天画出了一道长长的弧线。我国首次水下发射运载火箭获得成功！

why the sudden profile? no idea, but must be something behind it

William C. February 8th, 2011 at 8:54 am

Looking back it seems like the Chinese Xia class submarines of the 1980s were a rather limited effort and went to the sidelines as other issues became a priority. It seems public sources at least don’t even know where the 2nd submarine of the class went. The new Jin class may see much more effort and focus from the PRC. It would be totally outclassed by the Ohio or Vanguard classes but it will likely be major step forward from the Xia class.

Chinese February 8th, 2011 at 6:37 pm

Chinese government should put more effort to modernize our army. The defense budget is too low for a country facing threats from so many directions. Next ten years would be crucial for us to build a strong army and narrow the gap with the west.

freefallingbomb February 8th, 2011 at 10:34 pm

To the poster Mr. Byron Skinner

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Part 1 / 19

You wrote: “Your remark regarding US China policy: I regret to have to give the opinion that I agree with you. We had better ties and knew more about China, its peoples and its intents in 1910 the we do in 2010. In 1910 we had a cadre of bureaucrats, foreign service officers, diplomats, military officers and enlisted personal in the Army, Navy and Marines that had spent well over a decade in China, and knew the people, knew the Military and the local and national political leaders. This has not been true since the end of WW II.”

Excellent portrait of the state of the U.S. American Diplomacy now and then! Really insightful.

(Continued)

freefallingbomb February 8th, 2011 at 10:35 pm

Part 3 / 19

I don’t know where you get all that triumphant euphoria from. Right now the Chinese Economy is globally more competitive than the U.S. American Economy. That’s because the Communists are doing everything right according to the Capitalist rule book itself (drafted by you Anglos!), while you disregard even some of its most elementary rules. Are you really saying that nowadays China has “less” options on the table than the U.S.A. ?! The most morbid of them even includes waiting lazily a bit more for the U.S. Economy to collapse entirely. Guess who will fill that foreign trade vacuum then: Europe, Japan or… China (except maybe for top-tech, value-added products like Airbuses) ? But with the U.S.A. gone (probably forever), WHICH heavy-weight in the World will still be left to check China’s increasingly bullyish, unlimited expansion, even politically and militarily, including to defend all its small neighbours?

(Continued)

freefallingbomb February 8th, 2011 at 10:36 pm

Part 5 / 19

Sooner or later China will inevitably learn how to produce sophisticated, maybe even innovative products (not just more or less pirated copies). All it takes is a few years of Western technology transfer, Western “quality concerns” (over “inedible Chinese toys”) being our favourite, retrograd obstacle to that. But a technologically sophisticated China will also stop being the U.S.A.‘s biggest customer (after the E.U.), just like Japan stopped being it, worsening your economic situation even further: Less exports + more imports = a crasser trade imbalance.

And can you even imagine the competition from a SECOND Japan, but this one with the size of China? Naah, what shall not happen, cannot happen.

(Continued)

freefallingbomb February 8th, 2011 at 10:36 pm

Part 7 / 19

(The undervalued Renminbi is in fact only a SMALL , unfair Chinese export advantage, although a highly politicized issue – currency war looming on the horizon – and a shortsighted one, too: The sinking U.S. Economy can’t depend on “the proper value of the Renminbi” to float again!)

Most analysts claim that China’s Economy faces ~ 3 threats, many say even less, some even say that all these threats are completely exaggerated, and that any previous Western experiences don’t apply to China. However, most of them agree on two economical / political weaknesses, which China faces:

1) China’s enormous, but still insufficient healthcare spending

and

2) China’s lack of a consumer-driven Economy (as opposed to their EXCLUSIVELY market-driven Economy!).

(Continued)

freefallingbomb February 8th, 2011 at 10:37 pm

Part 9 / 19

So China’s INTERIM solution to its market-Economy problems is to keep eagerly reinvesting every penny it can, but henceforth only ABROAD , not at home, to avoid saturation of their domestic industrial sector.
“Problem” is: There are so many foreign companies (including foreign industries) flowing to China (“D.F.I.” = Direct Foreign Investment, which is also juicy), that all the foreign companies who operate in China already produce 30 % – 50 % of China’s total output, and growing! “Outsourcing” = think only of the more than 100 U.S.-based multinationals in China, like Wal Mart, etc. .

TREASON : Even TAIWANESE hi-tech companies outsource to mainland Red China! Makes you wonder: Whom exactly are U.S. aircraft carriers supposed to defend again in the Taiwan Strait?

(Continued)

freefallingbomb February 8th, 2011 at 10:37 pm

Part 11 / 19

That I kinda doubt. The Chinese tend to BE more than they appear. They certainly don’t hide their own failures from their population, nor do they sweep their problems FOR DECADES under the rug, like we Westerners do. The Chinese leadership is infinitely more self-critical, outspoken, quick-reacting and deep-cutting about all its country’s fundamental and lesser problems than ANY Western government, even than the Japanese and the Indian governments, and that’s something we should really adopt wholeheartedly from China’s PEOPLE’S GOVERNMENT ! (If we ever had a people-representing government in our lives – no, some weak-heads in our Hemisphere even smile at China for thinking collectively! Just like they also laugh at Russian Space experts for worrying about a possible collision between Earth and the asteroid “99942 Apophis” in 2029… Hope he smacks them right in their decadent faces)

(Continued)

freefallingbomb February 8th, 2011 at 10:38 pm

Part 13 / 19

Everything China has today, everything it does, everything it is, is also the product of Chinese fondness for long-term plans regarding Politics, national infrastructures and the Economy, because Chinese patience is legendary. Like the turtle that keeps beating the hare. What was the last U.S. American national long-term plan? Was there EVER a first one (serious question) ? Are the U.S.A. allergic to long-term plans? Not just to a generous Welfare System and mandatory identity cards, dignifying, national public transports and free University education, etc., etc., etc., like a “Communist” government (“mine”) would offer to you, but also to such small “items” as minimally safe cars, minimally healthy food, minimally proven drugs, minimally effective Infantry rifle calibres, etc. ?

(Continued)

freefallingbomb February 8th, 2011 at 10:38 pm

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Part 15 / 19

You wrote: “Real nominal GDP could be overstated by as much as 50% or $4,5 trillion dollars.”

What, suddenly, just like that?

“Some economists believe that Chinese economic growth has been in fact UNDERstated during much of the 1990s and early 2000s, failing to fully factor in the growth driven by the private sector and that the extent at which China is dependent on exports is exaggerated.”
http://​en​.wikipedia​.org/​w​i​k​i​/​E​c​o​n​o​m​y​_​o​f​_​t​h​e​_​P​e​opl… (Fourth paragraph, fifth phrase)

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(Continued)

freefallingbomb February 8th, 2011 at 10:39 pm

Part 17 / 19

2) to turn its hard-working, disciplined peasants (unfortunately still 40 % of its labour force!) into skilled technical workers, and relocate them to the industrialized, coastal regions, like Japan did (but France fails to do). The dumbest Chinese peasants will constitute the lowest-paid workers, who are the trick to keep the prices of labour-intensive products down (“useful idiots”),

(Continued)

Chinese February 9th, 2011 at 12:09 pm

The only effective way to prevent war is to have a strong military force with credible deterrence capability. To counter the threat from NMD, we should have our own space military force. The recent success of Shenlong project is a good start to counter X37, but there are a lot to be done. AVIC Shenyang is really disappointing compare with AVIC Chendu. We need more young engineers devote to defense sector and create a better environment for them. I am still hopeful.

JCitizen February 9th, 2011 at 10:26 pm

I’m sure you will correct me, but I find it very difficult to believe the Chinese have that level of technology on silent running. I know one of them popped up supposedly unexpectedly at one of our Naval exercises; but I just have a feeling that was staged surprise by the US. Good grief; hasn’t it been only recently that Russian subs reached equivalency with our capabilities? I just can’t see China jumping that far ahead!

I doubt even the Russians shared that technology with the Chinese. They went through a lot of money, time, and aggravation stealing it from us. Good thing we got electronic stealth now; for however long that edge lasts! ; )

Maverick February 10th, 2011 at 12:54 am

Are we sure it wasnt just a scene from Crimson Tide or The Hunt for Red October?

JCitizen February 10th, 2011 at 4:54 pm

Thank you for your response. You are obviously thoughtful and forthcoming here. This is the kind of discourse we need at DOD Buzz, and all over the world, for that matter! The more information a person can gather, the more balanced their views can be. Having a practical even handed approach is always better.

K February 11th, 2011 at 2:10 pm

We should just develop crappy technologies and weapons systems so that when the Chinese steal the technology they too get crap. They support our Walmarts we support their military.…seems a little one sided

JCitizen February 15th, 2011 at 5:54 pm

Thanks BOOMER, I guess the PRC already has non-cavitation props on their subs now. It is a surprise to me, but shouldn’t be as good as they are at stealing military and industrial secrets. I agree on you assessment of today’s subs; especially some of the Stirling cycle hybrid units coming out of Europe now. It would be just a matter of time before Iran buys something like that, if no one heeds our warnings and sanctions.

Jon P Nowlin February 28th, 2011 at 10:14 pm

Yes, you are true!

Bill skinner March 27th, 2011 at 4:38 pm

Its bacon! Todays special: bacon wrapped warheads and fried rice. Please pull up to the second window.