For Egypt Clues, Intel Watches Web

For Egypt Clues, Intel Watches Web

By Friday, February 11th, 2011 6:05 pm
Posted in Intelligence, International, Policy

If you believe that the intelligence community blew it on Egypt and missed the early signs of the popular uprising, your opinion is not shared by the ranking member of the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence.

“Our intelligence professionals are working diligently to provide the latest, real-time intelligence about the evolving situation in Egypt,” Rep. Dutch Ruppersberger of Maryland said in a statement several hours after Hosni Mubarak resigned as president of Egypt. “The protests are part of an unpredictable, popular uprising using social media. They do not have a crystal ball and can not predict the future, but they are working around the clock to collect and analyze as much information as possible in the world of Facebook, Twitter and Myspace. As Ranking Member on the Intelligence Committee, we are always pushing the community to give us more intelligence.”

One of the interesting stories sure to come out of the last few weeks is the role of the DNI’s Open Source Center in all this. The OSC, which combs unclassified sources in any language for information of use to policymakers and analysts, must become a central asset to the intelligence community in these times of Facebook– and Twitter-driven uprisings from Tunisia to Iran. (As a reminder — although it relies on unclassified material, the OSC usually classifies its analysis and other products.) It must work hand in glove with the National Security Agency, home to the greatest assemblage of computer and human translators, as well as the center for US cyber operations. The Director of National Intelligence, Jim Clapper, One of the questions sure to be addressed over the next few months is just how closely is the IC watching these increasingly important open sources on the web. Also, how effectively are they combing through ostensibly private SMS and cell phone traffic for clues to what is happening in crucial countries such as Iran, Israel, Saudi Arabia, Yemen, Algeria, Jordan and the Gulf States.


After Leon Panetta, CIA director, told the HPSCI yesterday that it appeared likely Mubarak would soon leave Egypt, his aides scrambled to correct any misapprehensions that might have arisen — especially any that smacked of that most hated shibboleth, an intelligence failure.

“It would be wrong for anyone to suggest that the CIA didn’t get things right on Egypt. The agency has been tracking developments very closely, and there were very real and rapidly unfolding changes over the course of the day in what has been — by any measure — an extremely fluid situation. That’s the nature of the intelligence business, and U.S. intelligence agencies will continue to follow events in Egypt and the region closely,” according to a quote in the Washington Post attributed to a senior intelligence official.

Join the Conversation

Lloyd February 11th, 2011 at 7:28 pm

) Why do James Clapper and Leon Panetta still have their jobs?

Could their performances yesterday possibly be any more embarrassing? Once again the crack cadres in Langley have been blindsided by events (see: Soviet Union, end of), while the director of national intelligence badly needs to read Andy McCarthy’s The Grand Jihad.

James banister February 11th, 2011 at 7:31 pm

ep. Dutch Ruppersberge is a Democrat– of course he would say such stupid things irrespective of facts. Probably thinks Jimmy Carter was a good president too.

Paul February 11th, 2011 at 11:27 pm

@Lloyd — If you read paragraph two you’ll answer your own question.

@James — Probably, you’re an idiot. Keep your partisan garbage on another blog.

Sarah February 12th, 2011 at 3:36 am

@paul

“Partisan garbage’ ???

None are so blind as those who will not see.

You leftist anti-American and pro magic Negro views blind you to reality. (are you bs Byron under this name now too?)

freefallingbomb February 12th, 2011 at 7:01 am

Part 1 / 3

The true reason for Mubarak’s late departure: Hosni Mubarak is possibly none less than

THE RICHEST MAN IN THE WORLD HIMSELF ,

so he and his two sons “had still something to do in a hurry” in Mubarak’s final days AND NIGHTS “in power”, in Cairo’s underground vaults, while officially PRETENDING to “cling on to his power out of sheer stubbornness”:
http://​finance​.yahoo​.com/​n​e​w​s​/​H​o​w​-​H​o​s​n​i​-​M​u​b​a​r​a​k-G…

A few elucidative quotes from the text in my link:

“And his delayed exit may have allowed Mubarak time to move money around and hide significant parts of his fortune.”

“Plus, an eventual exile deal could allow Mubarak to retain some of his wealth, no questions asked, as long as he and his family leave Egypt and make no further bids for power.”

(Continued)

freefallingbomb February 12th, 2011 at 7:01 am

Part 2 / 3

“Mubarak also spread the wealth far and wide in Egyptian power circles–another Middle Eastern tradition–one reason he incurred the kind of loyalty that allowed him to rule for a remarkable three decades. Top Army officials were almost certainly on his payroll, which might help explain why the Army eased him out in the end – allowing a kind of in-country exile – instead of hounding him out of Egypt or imprisoning him, once it was clear the tide had turned against him for good.”

And my preferred, absolutely subliminal excerpt:

“Even though he’s out of power, Mubarak may still be able to influence the Army officials running the country, through the financial connections that made them all wealthy.”

In one word: “Blackmail” !

(Continued)

freefallingbomb February 12th, 2011 at 7:01 am

Part 3 / 3

Mubarak’s final dilemma, to leave early and poor, but safe (alive), or to stay behind until his fortune is safe, is ABSOLUTELY REMINISCENT of the 1983 film “Doctor Fischer of Geneva”, based on the homonymous Graham Greene best-seller, where an excentric millionaire (James Mason, in his last movie) invites guests to a “bomb party” where the featured attraction is guests risking death in the process of opening their million-dollar gifts.

“Moral” of the story: All of them preferred greed over their own survival – like Mubarak did right now!

freefallingbomb February 12th, 2011 at 9:15 am

Excerpt from the article above: “Our intelligence professionals (…) are working around the clock to collect and analyze as much information as possible in the world of Facebook, Twitter and Myspace.”

Are there any “007” ranks for Internet-surfing C.I.A. agents?

Byron Skinner February 12th, 2011 at 1:00 pm

Good Morning ffb,

The Daily Teaspoon beat you to it. “The Tide of History“calling the next over throw as being Algeria was posted about 36 hours ago, an hour later The Daily Teaspoon was in a folder for the briefing.

The facebook crew at “The Silver Fox” was ipadding it to Algeria last night.

When you see it on facebook its already happened, it to late, “lt’s, over” as the Daily Teaspoon would say.

Welcome to the 21st. Century ffb.

Intelligence professionals, oxymoron.

ALLONS,
Byron Skinner

freefallingbomb February 12th, 2011 at 2:34 pm

Good evening, Mr. Skinner!

What on Earth is this “Daily Teaspoon” thing you frequently talk about?! I tried to find an answer on “Google”, but the only meaningful search results there are phrases like “Seasonal allergies: Is it true that a daily teaspoon of local honey helps?” and “What’s the Daily Teaspoon Limit for Added Sugar?”, etc. .
Okay, I admit I haven’t checked all 4.540 search results up to the umpteenth page (the 55th page, to be precise), but would you eventually mind to explain the meaning of this yourself?

Thanks in advance.

freefallingbomb February 13th, 2011 at 6:33 am

Part 1 / 3

CRAZY coincidence!

On the 11.2.1979 = exactly 32 years before last Friday, when Hosni Mubarak left power, the commander of the Iranian Airforce also announced on national radio that the Iranian Armed Forces were withdrawing from the fight to save the U.S.-backed regime of Shah Reza Pahlavi, who had already fled the country three weeks before in the face of burgeoning street protests against his autocratic rule:
http://​news​.yahoo​.com/​s​/​a​p​/​2​0​1​1​0​2​1​3​/​a​p​_​o​n​_​r​e​_​m​i_e…

(Continued)

freefallingbomb February 13th, 2011 at 6:35 am

Part 2 / 3

More proof of that:

“The final collapse of the provisional non-Islamist government came at 2 p.m. February 11 when the Supreme Military Council declared itself ‘neutral in the current political disputes… in order to prevent further disorder and bloodshed’. (…) February 11 is ‘Islamic Revolution’s Victory Day’, a national holiday with state sponsored demonstrations in every city.”
http://​en​.wikipedia​.org/​w​i​k​i​/​I​s​l​a​m​i​c​_​r​e​v​o​l​u​t​i​o​n_o… (Last four phrases)

What are the odds of that? Exactly 1 : 365,25 ! Hmm… gotta think of a plausible conspiracy theory for that… Perhaps some grand Bilderberger scheme for the whole Middle East?

(Continued)

freefallingbomb February 13th, 2011 at 6:35 am

Part 3 / 3

Could even be, since the current Iranian Prime Minister, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who allegedly works feverishly on “Israel”‘s nuclear annihilation, isn’t even an Iranian, but an Armenian djOOW !!! His real family name is “Sabourjian”, an Armenian, djoowsish name (Armenia = directly on Iran’s northern border, and VERY close to the Iranian province where Ahmadinejad was born, too).

Proof:

“Ahmadinejad’s father changed his name from ‘Sabourjian’ or ‘Sabaghian’ when Ahmadinejad was four years old to avoid discrimination when the family moved to Tehran, as the rural name indicated a lowly social standing.”
http://​en​.wikipedia​.org/​w​i​k​i​/​A​h​m​a​d​i​n​e​j​a​d​#​B​a​c​k​g​rou… (First paragraph)

Just “Google” the following combination of search words:

“Ahmadinejad” + “Armenia” + “jew” (147.000 search results)

I wonder what the C.I.A. thinks about all that? Or are these poor spies still drowning in unread Facebook, Twitter, Hi5, MySpace and Habbo messages?

guest February 13th, 2011 at 12:30 pm

Confusion about the Muslim Brotherhood is not limited to journalists. In testimony to the House Intelligence Committee Thursday, James Clapper, the Director of National Intelligence, described the brotherhood as “largely secular.”

“This is one of the most reckless and irresponsible statements ever made publicly by an American official at a critical and delicate moment,” said John Podhoretz of Commentary magazine.

The barry obama administration cluelessness about the brotherhood is dangerously reminiscent of Carter administration policy toward Iran in 1979. President Jimmy Carter’s U.N. ambassador, Andrew Young, once described the Ayatollah Khomeini as “some kind of saint.”

mike j February 13th, 2011 at 3:07 pm

The fact that Clapper is ignorant doesn’t mean the neocons are right. Egypt is not Iran.

Clapper For Buffoon February 14th, 2011 at 12:35 pm

Egypt is not Iran but it is the original source for Islamic fundamentalism.

The Muslim Brotherhood was founded there in 1920s to oppose Western influences
such as religious tolerance (Egypt has a population of more than 8 million Christians, mostly Copts),
emancipation of women and secular legal system. Its second leader, Sayd Qutb, wrote a vitriolic
text after visiting the US in 1947, railing against mixing of the sexes, blacks and Jews.

Its leaders have formed the bedrock of Islamic fundamentalism through today, with Al Qaeda’s No 2,
Egyptian doctor Ayman Al Zawahiri.

If Egypt is not Iran, there are a lot of indications that it could well go the way of Iran.

This is not the Czechs, with deep and widely-held democratic values, doing a revolution.
In a poll just last year, Pew found 80+% of Egyptians favor the death penalty for leaving Islam,
and similar percentages say neither a Christian nor a woman should be allowed to become
Egypt’s president.

mike j February 14th, 2011 at 1:24 pm

Except Ayman al-Zawahiri is not part of the MB, not as a “leader” or anything else. He may have joined briefly as a teenager, but the Brotherhood and al-Zawahiri BOTH deny they were ever affiliated.

It’s not that I’m standing up for the MB, I’m suspicious of them, but your decision here to call out al-Zawahiri as a Brotherhood member shows that you haven’t bothered to fact-check. You could have gone with Bin Laden or KSM for a Brotherhood connection, and you’d have been on better footing– not *good*, but better. The Zawahiri thing is just lies. You’re essentially just as ignorant of the situation as Jim Clapper.

And your last paragraph is proof of what? That Egyptians aren’t Westerners? What a surprise…

Clapper For Buffoon February 14th, 2011 at 7:52 pm

Ayman al Zawahiri was imprisoned in Egypt for being a member of the Muslim Brotherhood.

The last paragraph is proof that democratic values, as we understand them in the West
and as were understood in Eastern Europe during the 1989 revolutions, are thinly spread
in Egypt. Just because 2 revolutions in 2 different continents began with masses of people
demonstrating peacefully doesn’t mean they’re moving towards the same goal.

Osama bin Laden became radicalized while attending lectures by Mohammed Qutb, Said Qutb’s brother, at King Abulazziz University in Medina (where the younger Qutb fled after the repression in Egypt) [1]

Only naive liberals with rose-tinted glasses and ignoramuses like yourself delude themselves
about the Muslim Brotherhood roots of Islamic radicalism.

[1] Wright, Lawrence (2006). The Looming Tower: Al Qaeda and the Road to 9/11. Knopf. ISBN 9780375414862.

mike j February 14th, 2011 at 9:04 pm

You had all day to look it up, and you still failed. Al-Zawahiri was imprisoned for his part in plotting a coup against Sadat as part of the Egyptian Islamic Jihad. They are not the same group as the MB.

The reason I’m not wasting time worrying about the MB isn’t about some misapprehension of their politics. I’m paying attention to credible sources from Egypt who are saying the Brotherhood failed to take a leading role in the protests, and aren’t widely respected anyway. That says nothing about the politics of the crowd, left, right, center, anarchist, or whatever. It just wasn’t about the MB.

Right now it’s the military that’s running things in Egypt, just like always. The situation is far too much in flux to worry about outcomes, and there’s not a hell of a lot we can do about it anyway. And I wish our leadership would understand that, and stop making these embarrassing, foolish, unhelpful public statements.

*required

NOTE: Comments are limited to 2500 characters and spaces.

By commenting on this topic you agree to the terms and conditions of our User Agreement

AdChoices | Become a fan on and follow us on
© 2013 Military Advantage
A Monster Company.