PAS11: As F-35 struggles, Boeing waits, poised

PAS11: As F-35 struggles, Boeing waits, poised

PARIS — The setbacks and struggles for the F-35 could be good news for Boeing, the company’s president of military aircraft said Tuesday, if it can convince customers leery of Lockheed’s super-jet to opt for something older, but proven.

Chris Chadwick told reporters that he sees many potential markets around the world for the latest models of Boeing’s F-15 Eagle and F/A-18 Super Hornet, and there could be more if the F-35 continues to spin its wheels. Brazil might want some Hornets, Chadwick said, and he thinks it’s possible Australia may need another stopgap set of aircraft as it waits for its F-35s, and he said a few “Middle Eastern countries” also are interested in Super Hornets.

Overall, Chadwick said Boeing has talked with many F-35 customers about its alternatives, “just to let them know what their options are,” he said. Although the Eagle and Super Hornet might be less wham-o-dyne than the Lightning II, Chadwick thinks their performance will be comparable, but just as important, their costs are well understood and their risks are low. By comparison, the F-35 can seem like a roll of the dice, he argued, and in the era of reduced budgets, that looks less and less like a smart investment.


What F-35 supporters invariably say in response to this argument is that whatever teething pains the F-35 is having now, it will give militaries a clear edge for a long time, as opposed to older aircraft that could be come obsolete quicker. Lockheed also says its customers will keep that edge for a long time: “Most of the pilots who will fly the F-35 have not been born yet,” company vice president Tom Burbage said at its F-35 brief earlier Tuesday.

There’s a psy-war element here, too: Reporters pressed Chadwick on the chances for selling more Hornets to Australia, and he acknowledged there hadn’t been any official discussions, but that he was optimistic about the prospects for another sale.

Another potential target is Denmark, Chadwick said, one of the original members of the F-35 club. “They’re going to give this a little more time and then make a decision,” he said. As for the prospects? “We like our position.”

Chadwick was also asked if he’d heard whether India’s fighter deal — in which both Boeing and Lockheed were rebuffed — might be falling apart before it can get to a final selection. Chadwick said he didn’t know anything about it, but he smiled and crossed his fingers for luck.

 

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The only place where the Indian MMRCA deal is falling apart are in the wet dreams of some industrial lobbyists. Even Boeing and LM have moved on from the same. The F-35 being offered to India story is as dumb as it gets; the MMRCA is slated to be inducted by 2015 while the F-35 won’t be available until after 2020.

Lockheed’s F-35A and F-35C are ready for production as the only real question is how much will these fighters cost. The US Senate has an idea of what they want to pay for these fighter jets, but Lockheed owes it to their stockholders to be able to turn even a slim profit on each fighter as the company cannot function at a lost. Foreign governments will need to decide on whether they want to buy now or possibly even pay an even more expensive price later. Additionally, while Boeing’s F-18 is an available; one needs to remember that the F-18 is a jet developed in the 1970s and is essentially obsolete. There is no real reason why any country should wait as they should sign a contract with Lockheed and have full production of the F-35 begin now. European countries can wait for possibly a Euro “stealth” fighter; but that may not come for possibly 8–10 year minimum before even the prototype stage and possibly another 5 more years after that before production can begin.

Neither the F-35 or Super Hornet will be able to stand up to high-end anti-access threats. Certainly not every mission is anti-access. Which means for those missions, the Super beats the F-35 all the way around on price, utility, and overall carrier ops safety issues.

Even NAVAIR thinks so… http://​tinyurl​.com/​3​6​z​a​36k

As for, “What F-35 supporters invariably say in response to this argument is that whatever teething pains the F-35 is having now, it will give militaries a clear edge for a long time, as opposed to older aircraft that could be come obsolete quicker.”

The JORD for the F-35 was done in 2000. It might get into FOC in 2020 if we are lucky. Tell me about “obsolete” again.

The design is still not stable. Production learning curve is still not there because.… the design is not stable. There is still a lot of flight testing to do. The term “teething pains” is usually reserved for a weapons system that is mostly tested and in IOC. That term does not apply here.

Interesting that the Hill wants LRIP-5 to be a fixed price contract. That kind of a situation is usually only done when production has a lot of learning curve present and there are a lot of knows. Which again, does not apply in this situation.

The US should join with these countries and explore this alternative as a hedge against F-35 programmatic failures. This would pressure the F-35 program office and LM to get their act together and we would maintain a second viable supplier of tacair solutions.

characterizing the F-35 as a “roll of the dice” and thinking along the lines of making smart investments is smart strategic thinking.

@ E L P — Also single engine is the most terrible, very dangerous and extremely vulnerable for any combat aircraft. (Only ideal for some European nations to have single engine type, but not suitable for overwater operations e.g. Australia) This will make all fighter pilots going to feel very horrified, when it fails, it will be flying like a glider and dropping like a stone. It will happen at anytime on my watch when the JSF enters service soon. Also neither the F-35 or Super Hornet will be able to stand up to high-end anti-access threats. Even though the Super Hornet beats the F-35 all the way around on price, utility, and overall carrier ops safety issues. Still the Lagacy Hornet and Super Hornet is inferior to the Sukhoi Flanker variants. They’ll be outclassed in all key performance parameters by widely available fighters. With the remaining fatigue life in Australia’s F/A-18A/B fleet to expire over this decade, a costly $3.9 billion HUG program to replace fuselage centre barrels has been initiated to stretch the life of these aircraft. APG-73 radar, electronic warfare, guided weapon and missile upgrades are still progressing.

@ E L P — According to former Air Commander Australia claims “There is nothing super about this Hornet”.

The report is damning of the Super Hornet in areas critical to Australia’s operational requirements, while praising it for its improved aircraft carrier capabilities when compared to the original Hornet — something not high on our list of essential criteria.

@ E L P — ( Continued info from former Air Commander Australia)

Three sentences on page eight of the report say it all: “The consequences of low specific excess power in comparison to the threat are poor climb rates, poor sustained turn capability, and a low maximum speed. Of greatest tactical significance is the lower maximum speed of the F/A-18E/F since this precludes the ability to avoid or disengage from aerial combat. In this regard, the F/A-18E/F is only marginally inferior to the F/A-18C/D, whose specific excess power is also considerably inferior to that of the primary threat, the MiG-29.“
The Sukhoi Su-30 Flanker family of Russian fighters proliferating across the region: all Hornet variants are acknowledged in the report as being no match for even the older MiG-29s. Space precludes quoting the report’s comments on the multitude of other areas where the Super Hornet is inferior to the 1970s-designed and 1980s-built original F/A-18 aircraft.

what would you think about this suggestion: Cancel F-35. Re-start F-22 production line. Navy sticks to Super Hornets, explores navalized F-22. USAF pursues FB-22 two seat concept as interim “2018” bomber. “2037” heavy bomber is simply a replacement for the B-52: non-stealthy, subsonic, huge payload, range, w/ cruise missile capability. Forget all this “optionally piloted” nonsense for heavy bomber.

@ E L P — (Continued info from former Air Commander Australia)

Admittedly the Block II Super Hornet has a new radar and some electronic components not in the version Coyle gave evidence on, but the fundamental airframe and performance remain unaltered: it is heavier, slower, larger and uglier (its radar signature did not measure up to expectations) than the normal Hornet.

There is nothing super about this Hornet; perhaps “Super Dog or Super Bug” is a better descriptor. Evidently the underwing aero-acoustic environment and resulting vibrations are so violent that some weapons are being damaged in transit to the target on a single flight — dumb bombs are fine in that environment but not long-range missiles containing sophisticated and relatively delicate components.

Certainly, with the Super Hornet carrying half of some of the weapons, half the distance, at half the speed of the aircraft it is replacing, one has to hope and pray that the minister has not been misled. Worse still, we must wonder whether he has gone off prematurely without ensuring the rigorous engineering and operational evaluation process that is so essential to justifying spending $6 billion has been scrupulously followed and all options carefully and fairly evaluated.

@ E L P — The JSF will sit in the same criteria with useless capabilities as well.

Guest your information about the Super Hornet is largely outdated. Also just look at the F-16 if you need proof there is nothing wrong with single engined aircraft.

You ever figure out how to operate “Super” Hornets from amphibious assault ships? No? Didn’t think so.

A navalized F-22? I suggest you research “NATF” and discover why that’s been old and dead for nearly 20 years. Your “solutions” would be WAY more expensive than going with the F-35 with numerous shortcomings.

And now that the DAB that was supposed to give us the latest schedule delays for F-35 has been delayed until ???? you have no basis for concluding what I suggest may be more expensive. Do you even know how much is sunk and how much is still planned to be expended on F-35???

GOOD BYE JSF.… Worthless piece of Shit!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Leon will axe this program. Sell all your shares of Lockheed Martin…

Bulid and develp an upgraded AV-8B. We don’t need Marines repairing JSF and its highly toxic RAM with a K-Bar on-board a amphibious ship or on a road in the middle of know where. Hell, if the JSF Upper Hover door does not open, it cannot land at all.….. What a Useless Platform.

Hey William C. The F/A-18E/F Super Hornet has TWO ENGINES, NOT ONE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Wake the FUCK UP.

BTW: JSF now has a Retiring Admiral in charge as the Program Manager, simply because he will tell the truth. Something the other 20 Program Managers including the Lying pervious Marine Program Manager had that was lied to by Lockheed Martin and was fired. However, I am sure he is now working for Lockheed Martin and those steer fuckers in Texas.

Funny how the USMC operated for years without STOVL capability. Ever think about that? No? I didn’t think so.

“Most of the pilots who will fly the F-35 have not been born yet,” company vice president Tom Burbage said at its F-35 brief earlier Tuesday.

At this rate of development I’m not sure if the fathers (and mothers) of the F-35 pilots have been born yet either!

It’s been 10 years now, time to go to firm fixed pricing for F-35 SDD and “production”. No more blank checks! Hope McCain doesn’t back down and somebody stops this trainwreck of a program or forces it to live on a budget like everyone else has to.

To the poster “Weaponhead”

You wrote: ” ‘Most of the pilots who will fly the F-35 have not been born yet’, company vice president Tom Burbage said at its F-35 brief earlier Tuesday. At this rate of development I’m not sure if the fathers (and mothers) of the F-35 pilots have been born yet either!”

LOL!

The AV-8B that has been out of production for many years now? Good luck with that.

I worked on the design of the F-35. Suffice it to say I never liked the water in Fort Worth but stayed for quite some time. Burbage is using the Lockheed Executive Analscope for his “vision”. The USAF gushes about the F-22 but what does Moore’s Law say about its avionix modules? The F-35 was designed to be the LCC savior of the Fighter Community. Since Total LCC management is interesting mythology — the Combined Services are al doing the same thing — work the problem to the 36 month PCS then run off. You want an operational F-35? Tell Lockheed the deadline and say “no bonus” for any VP or Director until it flies to Spec .….. fail on the deadline and the VPs are barred from Defense Contracting.

So riddle me this batman. Lets drop the JSF for lets say $100 million a pop and buy Block 2 Superbugs for oh i don’t know lets call it $65 M with all the sweetness (79, epe, conformals, STRAIGHT ****ING PYLONS FOR THE LOVE!!) and spend the extra $35 M we save on upgrading (think bigger, now do it again, once more, ok now we are talking) our AMRAAM. And the best part! We get those new Superbug-2s Next summer.

Then we sell all our original Superbugs-1 to the Marines, who of course reluctantly SPIT PUCK AT EVERYONE FOR EVEN THINKING OF SUCH A SIN and take them because the navy owns them (USMC) anyway. 2 months after they take them they start having wet dreams because they finally realize how sweet 11 weapon stations really are. AND THEN WE ALL LIVE HAPPILY EVER AFTER.

OR WE BUY F-35s and…

China attacks! We run away putting our heads back where they have been the last 2 decades and hope that the “STEALTH” F-22s don’t all get scratched on the first day. Then hope all the rest don’t get scratched the second day, and then we run out of money on the 3rd day. That is when Canada attacks from the north to gains control of DETROIT. Then they will finally have control of global car manufacturing, or so their intel tells them (don’t let them in on the secret).

At the same time Mexico will attack from the south and retake California. Initially it takes Mexico a little time to mobilize their army, but then they realize that 12 million of them are already here. How convenient, at the same time all Californians realize that the terminator is old and can’t help them and they all start/continue hugging trees. The rest of the nation says, ” ***k it, lets get HIGH”

Whats the moral of this short story.…. FOR THE LOVE OF GOD BUY NEW SUPERBUGS.….

20% ahead of test flight schedule
30% ahead of test point schedule
production on or ahead of schedule for >9 months
no AUPC increase since 2008 (according the CAFE)

If only the US economy was doing so well…

Sorry but if you ordered Super Hornets today it would be two years before the 1st airframe was delivered.

Actually, at the rate at which developement is & has been accelerarting, SDD will be completed closer to the 2007 schedule than the 2010 schedule…

LRIP5 already IS fixed price.

But JSF testing was finished in 2006.
1000s of them are flying as we speak.
So says the 1998 full color brochure.
Praise the Lord and pass on the good News !

The parents of the engineers that will be debugging the F-35 flight software haven’t even been born yet — that’s how futuristic the JSF is.

>Actually, at the rate at which development is & has been accelerating, SDD will be completed closer to the 2007 schedule than the 2010 schedule..

Yep if the acceleration keeps up for another 15 years it will be closer to the 2010 schedule.
Every time a F-35 flies it is a miracle
So says the 1998 Glossy Brochure
Praise the Lord.

LRIP5 already IS fixed price.

Yes and every year it goes up for the Lord is plentiful.
for we shall call it fixed and then renegotiate it as we like
So says the 1998 Full Color Brochure
Praise the Lord.

The F-35 has already been dumped by the congress. And the F-15 is certainly a superior fighte. But what the USAF really needs is about 800 additional F-22’s, easily the best operational combat airplane in existance! And will continue to be the best for at least an additional 25–30 years!
REK, MD

LOL! Yes the F-15 is a pretty darned good platform, with plenty of upgrades from the original configuration and the capability to accept quite a few more before the last Eagle is parked. If you build a good product, and yes McD and now Boeing do make a good product, there will be a continued need for that product long after some of the economists and politicians might think necessary. Remember the good ole Phantom? Same production facility as the F-15 you know. First F-4 pushed out in 1958 and the last shiny new “zero time” F-4 was delivered in 1979 after something over 5,000 were built. Take note that the F-15 was flying in 1972!

It would shock me if there were not more F-15s and F/A-18s to be built before the F-22 and F-35 (should it actually go operational), start getting too comfortable in their roles. History doesnt not often lie. :-)

Engineer Economist and JSF advoctaes — So YOU boys need to get a life and please understand the facts prior to that you know nothing about. JSF is a Paper aircraft with 70’s and 80’s technology that has been in pathetic development for over 16 years. This is a very very serious solution. So stop drinking these pathetic rumours. I reckon you’re a jerk and very sloppy engineer economist and all of you JSF advocates are absolutely pathetic, crooks etc to sell the terrible JSF aircraft to the most customers, so why should anyone support your claims. Ummmmmm. Again if you or any JSF advocates have a problem with any misinformation, I suggest that you take it up to the Air Power Australia and Government Accountability Office to ask and explain the issues about the JSF program.

why the heck are you fighting me? I am not a JSF advocate. I agree with you on the merit of two vs single engined fighter. and i agree with you on exploration of navalized F-22 and FB-22 concepts. if you just want to be a jerk to me for giggles and attribute straw man attacks to me, the surely it is you that needs to get a life. my life is pretty darn good — and fyi I am both an excellent engineer & economist. my company & clients & references sure seem to think so.

Engineer Economist & JSF advocates — It’ll be so great to absolutely see the JSF program be in a great jeapordy.

Engineer Economist — I do apologise of offending you and calling you a sloppy engineer early on. You’re absolutely right about, that you agree with me on the merit of two vs single engined fighter. And now I do understand that you agree with me on exploration of navalised F-22 and FB-22 concepts. Another thing I agree with you too, from the Boeing irons Eagle info update. Is about “keeping its production lines going as long as possible” — finally a strategy that makes sense. We all reckon that the F-15 and F-22 really deserve to be in the production line further beyond 2012. I really didn’t mean to be aggressive to you, I’m just so very concerned that the JSF is going to do a lot of damage to the western forces, thats the reason its a wrong aircraft. Of course everyone is all extremely frustrated about this pathetic JSF program. I hope you receive my apology. Actually you’ve got good points with info etc and I’m sure you’re thinking about mine too.

Engineer Economist — At least its a great thing that you’re not a JSF advocate. Now I do realise that you’re not one of them. According to Winslow Wheeler from GAO. He put a warning message to the ones that are an opponents to the JSF saying. “Get away from that (JSF) airplane, its going to ruin your air force”. He also claims that the JSF is going to horrify the pilots e.g. with “no better aerodynamic agility than the F-16 and any other aircraft (for e.g F-15, F-111, F-22, Legacy F/A-18A/D Hornets, A-10 and AV-8 Harrier from USMC and British GR.7 and GR.9 Harriers) that they have right now”. He also said “run, don’t walk, run”. We have to try our very best to runaway from the JSF as much as possible.

Engineer Economist — What do I think about your suggestion. “Awesome ideas”.

1. Cancel F-35 JSF program altogether.

2. Re-start the F-22 production line — uplift the export ban for foreign customers (e.g. Australia, UK, Israel and Japan) to purchase this aircraft. Modify the navalised variant F-22 into the F-22N Sea Raptor and FB-22A Strike Raptor concepts possibly for the B-2A Spirit replacement. Hopefully with affordable price tag. And hopefully increase the development of this remarkable warplane.

3. Keep the F-15 production line longer, for new and existing foreign customers (e.g. If not the F-22 for Australia, if the RAAF wants a multi-role A/A and A/G for their inventory, the F-15 is one of them as a second option) to have an opportunity to purchase this aircraft. Develop the F-15F single seat variant of the E model as an export variant, as well as the F-15SE. Hopefully increase the development of this remarkable warplane.

4. Keep the F-16 production line longer, for new and existing foreign small European nations. Also some small nations from South American and Middle Eastern (e.g Israel) customers to have an opportunity to purchase this aircraft. E.g. F-16E/F Block 60/62 and Block 70. Hopefully increase the development of this remarkable aircraft.

What do you reckon about this idea?

but expensive

which schedule? the one in your dreams?

thanks apology accepted. i think u have many good points too =)

good stuff. the key to good risk management is diversification, so you never lose all your chips on any particular bad bet. the world is so uncertain, that you have to wait until successful patterns and innovations emerge from the chaos. if F-35 PM and LM had properly managed this development program from the get go, we would not need to be having these discussions. once a program has proven itself to be a FUBAR, this “bury your head in the sand”, “too big to fail”, and “no alternative course of action” approach is not acceptable.

the DAB that was supposed to give us the new schedule delays, itself was delayed. There is no schedule, you loser.

1. Since the F-35 is a “joint” effort, continue with the program until treaty obligations for allies are met — assuming they want to continue.

2. Build F-35C for carrier ops and peg it for the role formerly held by the A-6. Cancel F-35A&B.

3. Continue with F-22 prodn. Establish FB-22 & Sea Raptor prodn, with latter fulfilling & expanding role formerly held by F-14.

4. Replace meat of Air Force with F-16, F-15, and F-18SH updates. To degree $$$ runs short and F-22 variants can’t be pursued, what about old ideas here like F-15U Plus & F-16XL?

5. Develop follow-on jet for A-10 replacement.

6. Re-engine B-52’s with modern off-the-shelf engines, cutting down man hours and improving fuel economy ratings…extending range of jets.

This is enough to get the Air Force, Navy, and Marines hopping.

Go with the F-15 or F-18, or dumb down the F-35, we did it with the B1A to make the B-1B, more cost effective and there wont be any pilot information overload/saturartion. Better yet go with tBoeings X-45C unmanned bomber/fighter, no oxygen system malfunction there.

In some ways the F-35 is a dumbed-down plane already — quality of stealth-wise, that is. And I question whether any jet meant to be the ultimate jack of all trades to all services will end up being the master of nothing for all of them.

Omegatalon I have to disagree with you regarding your comment about the F-18 being a 1970s developed fighter jet and thus is now obsolete (as was the case with the F-15 which was also developed in the 1970s). Both jets have proven themselves many times over and remember the letter designation reflects the “latest and greatest” model that has been upgraded. The F-15 is up to the “E” model also known as the “Eagle” which is still the fastest USAF jet fighter built. No one owes Lockheed Martin any favors to satisfy their stockholders if the F-35 is beset with problems and is overly expensive. Too often new technology like stealth capabilities are over-sold and not worth the extra cost. Everyone thought that the F-117 was immune to shootdown with its stealth technology which was proven wrong when one was shot down over Bosnia in the 1990s. SPEED IS FABULOUS AND I’LL TAKE THOSE COLD WAR ERA FIGHTERS WITH THEIR BLAZING SPEED OVER ANY STEALTH FIGHTERS ANYDAY!

Yes, Thinking_ExUSAF you’re exactly right– when a fabulous jet fighter like the F-15 is built then it can be upgraded numerous times and continue to serve for many years. McDonald Douglas committed itself to build a fast, maneuverable, and quality fighter in the F-15 and the F-15 Eagle is great with its fighting and bombing capabilities. Lessons were learned during the Vietnam War when the kill ratio dropped from the Korean War and thus true fighters were needed instead of interceptors. Find the story of the F-15 and read it sometime. It’s a great story about how this airplane was designed and built during the 1970s and that fabulous top speed that has allowed it to maintain a perfect record of not getting shot down during the Persian Gulf War or the Iraq War. Also, look for the story of the Israeli Air Force pilot who flew one on one wing following a mid-air collision and safely landed it. The plane is so fast that engineers figured that it was like a missile and thus didn’t need the other wing for the pilot to land it.

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