Why the Air Force doesn’t ask Apple for an iFighter

Why the Air Force doesn’t ask Apple for an iFighter

“What if Apple designed an iFighter?”

That’s the attention-grabbing headline of a column Tuesday in the Wall Street Journal by American Enterprise Institute scholar Arthur Herman, and it’s difficult to tell if he’s actually serious or if the whole thing is a big joke.

Remember the good old days, Herman asks, when defense acquisition was a beautiful and seamless ballet that functioned perfectly because it was run by magical fairies who rode unicorns over bridges made of rainbows? The War Department and its vendors used to laugh and play and frolic in soft meadows as they delivered low-cost, high-performing products ahead of schedule that out-performed their original requirements. Everything was so wonderful!


Then something happened — though Herman doesn’t say what — and suddenly we got today’s expensive, inefficient, highly political and often absurd military-industrial-congressional complex. If only we could return to those happy, golden years! Ah, but Herman has a prescription for how we can: Revisit the worst, deadliest, most destructive conflict in human history — that’ll get us off the nut, boy!

If only Washington could replicate the lessons of World War II, there’d be no more Comanches, no more Future Combat Systems, no more Littoral Combat Ships, no more F-22 Raptors, no more F-35 Lightning IIs, Herman argues. In the good old days, the U.S. military modernized from a sleepy interwar garrison to history’s greatest force for good. How’d we do it? Per his column:

We did it not because we spent a lot of money, but because the dollars spent followed four simple business principles.

“Not because we spent a lot of money” — on arms and war materiel in World War II? As the world’s Arsenal of Democracy? When defense spending constituted nearly 40 percent of the Gross Domestic Product? When raw materials and fuel were in such demand the government had to ration them? Yeah, he’s right, money played no part.

Continues Herman:

First, we recruited the most productive and innovative companies and manufacturers to help. In 1939, most weapons for the U.S. Army were built in government arsenals or by contractors in small batches—much as they are made by a handful of big defense contractors today. The war brought in car makers like General Motors and Ford, electronics firms like GE, RCA and Westinghouse, and companies like Boeing and Lockheed that still made their living designing and building civilian aircraft. Companies that had never made a tank or machine gun or bazooka ended up producing them by the thousands—and brought their engineering expertise to every step.

The future of military technology is the kind of high-tech engineering in which American companies already are the established leaders. So why not let the Air Force ask Apple to design an iFighter? Or let the Navy ask Google to design the software architecture to power its ships and submarines? That company’s skunk-works innovation team, Google X, has now developed a car that drives itself on the streets of San Francisco. Why not tap that expertise for the Pentagon’s future unmanned systems?

Probably because Apple has never built an airplane and Google has never built military hardware. And the Army is already using Google’s Android OS in some of the handsets it’s testing for its network.

Meanwhile:

We kept the loop between users and makers tight. Defense contractors in World War II never forgot that their ultimate customers weren’t the Air Force or Navy, but the men sailing or flying them into harm’s way. At Roy Grumman’s factory on Long Island, pilots would stop by his office to make suggestions on how to improve his fighter planes. Out of that came the F6F Hellcat, which eventually shot down more Japanese planes than any other fighter.

Yep, that’s the problem with today’s defense industry — not enough ties with the Pentagon and the military services.

Continues Herman:

Today, multiple layers of bureaucracy oversee every stage of major weapons system. Not to mention a Congress that feels free to dictate what’s made and where, and even makes the Pentagon build weapons and maintain facilities it doesn’t want—for instance demanding a second engine for the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter. By contrast, the success the Army and Marines have had with the mine-resistant ambush-protected vehicle or MRAP shows what happens when the Pentagon throws out the bureaucratic rule book and takes on a more World War II-style business model.

Quite right — let’s take a look: The Pentagon needed vehicles that could save troops’ lives — yesterday. It staged a massive effort with multiple vendors to turn out multiple copies of the trucks that would fill the bill, shoveling out cash from a pile of American debt. They got the job done. Now the Army and Marines have a $40 billion fleet of heavy vehicles they’ll probably never use again and want to replace with a whole new breed of light trucks.

That’s the problem with war procurement — war is unpredictable. War is wasteful. And more than anything, war is expensive. It was expensive when mass-producing propeller-driven aircraft and diesel-powered tanks, and it’s even more expensive when you’re fielding stealth strike fighters whose pilots have to worry about the potential cyber-vulnerabilities of their new network-enabled weapons. Paying for it all with borrowed money makes everything even more expensive.

Herman’s idyllic view of World War II-era procurement excludes the waste uncovered by then Sen. Harry Truman, whose watch-doggery helped save taxpayers as much as $15 billion, per the Truman Libraryduring the war. Which was so significant in its day it raised his national profile enough for him to become vice president.

It ignores the reality that the U.S. had a huge industrial base that could be impressed to switch from building cars to building bombers – and that the bombers of that era could be built in such a factory. If Secretary Panetta today called up the Ford Motor Company and asked it to rush into building B-2 Spirits, the executives in Detroit would slam down the phone and say, “Damn crank calls.”

The qualitative differences matter. G.I. Joe fought World War II on foot, wearing woolen pants, with a wooden rifle, spooning rations out of a can. Today’s “Battlestar Galactica” troops clad in high-tech armor step into battle off a helicopter, having flown from a base with three flavors of ice cream in the chow hall, in an Army that wants to wire every soldier into a sophisticated, unified network.

This is why there is a dedicated defense industry — because if the Air Force asked Apple to build an ‘iFighter,’ it would be starting from scratch. Lockheed and Boeing aren’t. A steel mill in Pittsburgh can’t just crank out a Flight III Arleigh Burke-class destroyer — you need Bath Iron Works up in Maine or Ingalls down in Pascagoula. When longtime House Armed Services Committee institution Rep. Duncan Hunter (the elder) tried for years to help a guy build his own fighter jet in his own backyard, it didn’t go so well.

No one is under any illusions that the Iron Triangle has, as we’ve observed before, a few slight imperfections. Herman’s heart may be in the right place; he calls for DoD to help vendors with supply chain management, simpler requirements and higher volume, lower-cost orders. And there are valid concerns about whether the U.S. is losing or has lost its World War II-style “surge” capacity to respond to a crisis. But let’s be clear: Although today’s defense acquisitions may be broken, everyone involved, from the generals to the politicians to the CEOs, nonetheless continues to get what he wants. So if the system were ever to improve, it’ll be because it moved forward, not backward.

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Its a perfect example of a social science scholar knowing absolutely nothing about the hard sciences. The world is a great deal more complex than even 20 years ago. When I started grad school, I bought a top of the line Compaq (yeah, a Compaq), laptop. Its hard drive was like 1MG. There are millions of man hours in progress between 1994 and 2012. I’m a social science guy, but at least I respect and give credit to all the work that goes into making things appear effortless.

In simpilest terms what happened was technology and the means to manufacture it got too specialized and proprietary that a startup really can’t compete. That just leads to the Government going back to the same companies over and over again, further pushing the possibility of innovation outside of the hands of those that don’t presently have a stake in the industry. Just by attrition competition has died out.

On the other hand, there isn’t any reason Apple couldn’t help with aspects of system architechture, system integration, and networking. The problem is that the DOD is uncooperative in promoting such ventures by other companies. Take Ford they showed an interest in building the JLTV, but needed an additional month to rework what they wanted to submit after the program requirements changed. The Army/Marines said no to Ford, but after designs were submitted BAE requested a month to rework its idea and was given it. One of the worlds largest manufacturers of trucks was effectively turned away from competing pretty much because they don’t know how the system works.

Biggest problem is that there is too much poltics in what the DoD wants. face it we dumped the effective F-22 for the crappy F-35 due to that the new president didn’t want them. Over GCV and ICC are a waste of money but due to that some senator started them they have to burden the army till budget cuts end them. This is weak sauce.

Sure why would we want to do business the way they did in WW2? We know better, that’s why we now write contracts that give our contractors $1.10 for every $1.00 they spend developing and building new weapons. And then we can’t figure out why design drags on for such a long time and why the recurring costs go sky high. Seriously, is there anyone here who can’t figure out that if you get $1.10 for every dollar you spend that you make more money the longer it takes to drag out design and development of a weapon? Is that what we want to continue to do, pay contractors more to do what we don’t want them to do? Is our understanding of capitalism so poor that such a system of contracting makes sense now even though it didn’t before?

The author has a major point though. Lockheed is being told how to build a plane by bureaucrats with ridiculous specs that were outmoded the day they were written. Specs should be performance only. How far, how fast, how stealth, % readiness, and when can we have some etc. That was what the CIA gave the Lockheed Skunk Works. The U-2 and the SR-71 were products of needed performance and those guys built them. Why the 2,000 page document? The technology is actually obsolete before the engineer can read the 2,000 pages!

We had about ten or twelve topping choices for our ice cream too…and swirling chocolate and vanilla together does not constitue a third flavor. Show some respect for our deployment hardship. :)

So a contractor makes a DIME on the $1 worth of work they do and you think THEY and the gov’t don’t understand capitalism?

(FACEPALM)

If you’re so stupid you can’t do basic math, then you deserve to have that dime taken from you — over and over and over again.

The reason they give the contractor such detailed requirments is because if they didn’t, they’d just be writing the contractor a blank check. Sure, they could tell the contractor, “we want a bomber that flies at least 30,000 ft at Mach 1.5″ and leave it at that, but then what recourse does the government have against the contractor when their new bomber only holds 100 lbs of bombs? It’s a bomber, right? The contractor spent billions of US taxpayer dollars designing a “bomber” just like you asked them to. So now what’s your problem with the fact that it only carries 100 lbs of bombs? You didn’t specifiy how big of a bomb load you wanted… And so it goes endlessly in the aerospace game we play today.

When you put the US taxpayer on the hook for development costs, then you need to be very specific about what the contractor develops. When the contractors were developing aircraft on their own dime, then they took the loss if they didn’t build the best airplane that fit the Air Force’s loose specifications. When it’s public money the contractor is spending, and believe me it is not lost on the contractor that they make more money the longer they drag out development and the more the jack up costs, then you have to watch the contractor much more closely during development due to the obvious conflict of interest between what the profit incentive makes profitable and what the Air Force wants.

Five years ago, Apple didn’t make phones. That seemed to work out for them.

Buddy, you’re the poster child for “no child left behind”.

Of course, only part of the Air Force wants a good airplane. There’s another part of the Air Force, the part that does procurement. They don’t really care if the Air Force has good airplanes, because they get their promotions based on how many people work for them. The more people required to watch the theiving contractors, the more promotions they get and the more power their part of the Air Force has. So this method of procurement we use now where we give them $1.10 for every dollar they spend is a boon for the procurement part of the Air Force. It’s given them a huge amount of money and power. It really sucks for the small part of the Air Force that actually fights our wars, though. But who cares about them? All they do is break and crash and hurt our fine airplanes that would be perfect if only they would serve them better.

As always, thanks for your intelligent inputs into this serious discussion.

It wasnt the new President that didnt want the F-22, it was the SecDef of the current and previous Presidents.
It was all about …you know ..saving money

Very good points, in the old days they all ways had 2 or 3 similar planes in development or about to start development. Same went for engines

Instead of making 40 million the AF will only want 450. And for them to last 30 years not 3.

In the old days, as was the case during WW2, airplanes were relatively cheap to design and develop. Thus the manufacturers were able to cover the costs of designing a new fighter without going under if that fighter failed to be bought in any quantity by the Air Force. As these aircraft became more capable development costs went up. Aircraft companies complained (rightly, in my opinion) that their development costs were too high making their risks of going out of business too high. So the DoD started picking a single vendor to make their next new fighter and they would reimburse that vendor for all their development costs. They’d give them $1.00 for every $1.00 they spent. The contractors complained that development times were growing too long and that they could not afford to go so long without making a profit. That’s when the govenrment got the great idea of giving them $1.10 for every $1.00 they spent. It was a legitimate attempt to fix a legitimate problem, but it has failed, and there are other ways to do business that would be much better.

General Motors was only successful mass producing the proven designs of others (i.e. Grumman). When they tried to synthesize their own design the result was the Fisher XP-75. Lesson learned? Designing airplanes to a specification is a tricky specialty. Failure is common, even to the experienced.

The original specs for the F-35 were for computers and electronics of the day. There are huge amounts of $$ tied up in specialty electronics that were the thing in 1990 but my desk calculator will out perform. Moore’s law was a fact in the 1990’s too. Wasn’t that ever pointed out. Besides, the old competitions for fighters and bombers were bring your best to the competition and the service picks a winner instead of paying for development. The F-35 (without the engine; granted a turbine is more complicated than a piston engine) is not nearly as complicated as a McClaren F1 racing car. McClaren could build a spaceship for what one F-35 costs. There is a radical disconnect somewhere. Lockheed built a stealth ship for the Navy. The Navy would not approve the design until Lockheed included a paint locker in it. Lockheed says there is no paint, it is all composite, why the paint locker? The Navy says all ships have paint lockers. How do they ever get anything done?

I think you’re doing a great job of seeing the problems inherit in this method of doing business. Basically the procurement officials who are writing the “requirements” are designing what they want to some degree with no final input as to what comes out the back end of the process. Thus the requirements are restrictive because they have to be, and wasteful as an unintended consequence. The DoD continually blames the requirements writers for the waste, which is partially true but then due to the profit incentive being on the side of waste, it is also false. It can be complex if you watch all the ins and outs, or you can look at it from a top level perspective and say, “when the profit incentive is to drag things out and screw things up the system is unworkable” then it really sums up the problem in a nutshell.

The original editorial to which this post replies is of course kind of lame for suggesting that the likes of Apple and Google could just step in and do what true defense industry firms provide.

However, there is a valid idea contained within, that we can expect the firms that make military hardware and software to work much more effectively, with greater innovation, discipline, and speed. There are a number of examples of military systems that were developed much more rapidly than we have seen as the recent norm, with lower costs and greater RELEVANT capability.

Ponder these: The P-51 Mustang, the F-86 Saber, the Atlas ICBM, The U-2, the MQ-1 Predator, the UH-1 Iroquois, the George Washington class SSBN. A number of these were transformative or superlative systems in their categories, but did not take the same kind of massive time and expense to develop. The companies that built these took risks with their own resources, or had harsh, war-driven timelines that had to be met. They did not have the luxury of drawing out development contracts on the taxpayer’s dime and catering to endless new added requirements from the services. We can give the defense industry its due and recognize its valuable role, without giving it a pass on accountability and results.

I’m still waiting for one from you :)

No not really in reality our current weapons can take on the enemy this decade. With the budget collapsing. A President rosevelt approach of the early 40s is needed. Keep small number of new planes ships ect and if war comes let war production handle equipping US forces before they deploy.

…and even makes the Pentagon build weapons and maintain facilities it doesn’t want—for instance demanding a second engine for the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter.”.…==–== I see that popular meme still lives. The JSF plan called for two motors as plug-and-play. It was briefed since… the 1990’s and up to 2009 to ALL JSF partner nations as value-added for the program–by design. The cut for the Rolls/GE motor came when costs blow-outs via 2004 SWAT and the first Nunn-McCurdy event showed that the program needed to cut costs…to avoid another Nunn-McCurdy event.…

Yes, the F-22/F-35 debacle was created by the bozo SecDef who wanted to get credit for “saving” money and leave the task of keeping the fantasy of the next fighter up to his replacement. When we cancelled the F-22 because the F-35 was going to build “lots more copies of a cheaper fighter” — the cheaper fighter had not yet been completely designed. The final design was (Surprise!!) far more expensive than predicted. Not that a situation like that has ever been seen before. So then we could not afford as many copies!

Additional reasons Apple & Google would never do defense work: they employ scads of non-citizens who could never obtain a DoD security clearance; they thrive in a culture of openess & collaboration which would make a mockery of security efforts, and, frankly, there isn’t enough profit in it for them…

Is that dime, gross profit or net profit ???

Wow, I’m surprised Black Owl hasn’t come on here yet and tried to spread his F-35 hate. The F-35 is here to stay on nothing is going to change that.

Gross (before expenses are taken out is “gross” right?), but it is very close to net due to the fact that the companies are reimbursed for nearly every imaginable expense including executive salaries. The only thing not in there is internally funded research and development (thought they get big tax breaks on that) and janitors salaries, which is why they typically have engineers do that while charging as if they are doing the work they are supposed to be doing (at $200+ an hour your cost, they are very expensive janitors).

Gross profit.

I agree. This is simple “best practices” philosophy. You find the best at addressing a particular challenge and utilize them for their specific piece of the puzzle; “division of labor” anyone? Perhaps part of DoD acquisition training should require 3 semesters of Economics. LockMart keeps pointing to the complexity of the code as the main reason for the ever-increasing delays in F-35 development. So, give that part of the problem to someone that oh, I dunno CREATES SOFTWARE FOR A LIVING like Google or Apple or McAfee, etc. But no. Far better to attempt to do it all on their own and constantly fail to deliver on schedule and on budget. If the government is going to let them get away with it, why wouldn’t they?

A 10% profit is not very much compared to most commercial companies that make 40% or more typically. The thing is, though, it is a zero-risk rate. Try to make 10% on any investment with zero risk. Only the government can make that happen. The problem with that 10% rate is that it is too high for development, and not high enough for production. That’s why so many programs die before they go into production. All of the free profit is gone. Production uses a lot of capital equipment and the risks are much higher. If you’re building an airplane, for example, it had better fly and the wings had better not fall off. These factors combine to make the net production profit margin very small, which is why defense contractors would like to see the contract die before production begins if at all possible. The only exception to that is when they have an existing production line where all the risks have been reduced significantly over time.

You DO understand that cost-plus-percentage-of-costs contract types are illegal, do you not?

The “procurement officials” that write the requirements work for DoD, so if DoD blames the requirements writers, then they have themselves to blame. And those officials work for the senior leaders in DoD, who ultimatley are to blame for when their acquisitions do not turn out as foolishly, hopelessly, and impossibly, conceived & planned. Most contractors are not interested in long drawn out programs that inevitably get overrun and get canceled. Their market capitalizatoin & stock price are a function of the planned forecasted sales (production & follow on sustainment).

If Apple priced iPads under DOD cost accounting rules, then the price for the first iPad sold to the public would be $144 million but all the rest would be priced at just over $800. (Versus $829 for everybody.) Under DOD’s rules, “the iPAD 2 market would collapse, along with every other product sold at the conclusion of an extensive research and development campaign.” — Mark Nackman, writing in the Public Contract Law Journal, Volume 41, No. 2, (Winter 2012).

Ok the one point missed by this whole rant is that in WWII WE WERE AT WAR. We are not at war now, no one has declared war on anyone OFFICIALLY, like in Congress approves a Declaration of War. So we are spending large amounts of money on killing people we don’t like (just nuke them and be done with it), just so a lot of companies can make mega bucks selling thing to the government. For the price of what we spend on this whatever (is it another police action?) we could buy Afghanistan. Ike was right welcome to the world of The Industrial Military Complex

Requirements are the responsibility of the JROC — if the requirements are wrong, blame the Joint Chiefs. And in all the recent massive acquisition failures, the requirements _have_ been wrong — by asking for too much. DoD has lost the ability to distinguish between the minimum capability that would have any military utility at all (that’s what “threshold” is supposed to mean) and the minimum capability that would justify politically a new start major weapons program.

When you require things that are physically impossible, or even merely unaffordable with current technology, and the contractors say “sure, we can build that!”, you get Future Combat Systems. And EFV. And Comanche. And JTRS. And DDG-1000. And so forth. It’s DoD’s responsibility to understand what is plausible and what is not, because the contractors have no incentive to do that well. Unfortunately, Prez Reagan and his various successors fired all of the feds who had the skills to judge what is feasible and what is not. And here we are.

Apparently it is not illegal if you call the “percentage of costs” an “award fee,” but I’m all for making it illegal.

I think we can conclude that after 20 years of trying to make this system work, there is no way to walk that tight rope of writing requirements that force a contractor to do a good job. The profit incentive to do a bad job and to drag out the contract always trumps the “requirement” to do what the government wants. It is a system that has failed too many times to bother to recount. It fails every day in new and creative ways because capitalist incentives work and rules do not. If you could write rules to make an economy work, then the Soviet Union would still be with us and thriving.

Well, I have something to add to the Googles and the Apples of the country. If we asked them to design our warfare products they would build them in China and who would have the opportunity to load them with bogus materials and spy hardware, to know everything about that product, like IBM, and the fake parts we now have in our aircraft, PEOPLE, we had better wake up and get our country back in gear or it wont make any difference who makes it, we are doomed.

And then you get Sen. Cornyn putting a “hold” on a DOD nominee simply because he doesn’t like the helicopter bought for Afghanistan because Bell didn’t get a contract for a helicopter that they do not make.

You do know that our or your own president tried and was unsuccessful in obtaining a security clearance before he became president.. NO MORE NOBAMA.

Oh yeah, Google or Apple or McAfee would be all over that. Until they found the level of testing and analysis that are required for any piece of flight software. What is their current CMMI rating? Have they produced DO-178B certified software ? Considering the cost and expense that are necessary to meet just the CMMI requirements, I seriously doubt that they would even bid. I have been in the position of finding software subcontractors for weapons and communications programs and they are far from cheap and are not the names that you mentioned.

Not true on the original specs for F-35 being computers and electronics of the day, that is just an urban legend and 100% wrong.

I was involved in the Joint Advanced Strike Technology (JAST) program in the 90’s which was what F-35/JSF was called in the Mid-90s and our electronics and more specifically the circuit boards could not be built at that time because things like gate counts and storage (RAM) levels were far too low. The future availability of the parts was based on technology forecasts and were right on target. At the time though, the brassboard layouts were emulated with several boxes emulating each card of the F-35 architecture.

Well there you go, the reason why JSF is such a glowing success story today…

HA! Good one! When I went to the field, we MIGHT get to visit such an expeditionary “PX” once every two weeks. The rest of the time, we had to take it with us on foot, or on tracks. Ice cream was occasionally delivered in big insulated boxes in the back of a truck. You had one choice — vanilla. If it wasn’t melted already, and then you could pretend it was a “shake”. If you wanted chocolate, you saved your powder from a past MRE meal.

I’m not sure what you mean, but I predict it would cost three times as much as a competitor and have some kind of trendy color like white. ]:)

And pilots would not wear shoes, and have turtleneck sweaters! HA!

We are doing that now. Ever wonder why that spy UAV decided to just up and land itself so conveniently in Iran, and give itself up to our enemies?

“In the old days, as was the case during WW2, airplanes were relatively cheap to design and develop.”

In the old days, planes didn’t go Mach 2.

In the old days, radar was something that you had a whole separate crewmember to operate, and it had a range of dozens of miles and could track ones of target(*).

In the old days, the most complicated air-to-air weapon was a machine gun.

In the old days, tracking an enemy by their radio emissions was something that took a giant building with hundreds of people working on the problem.

(*) the grammar here is intentional.

F-86? It’s easy to design a great plane when the Germans already did all the aerodynamic work for you (and the British built the engine).

Atlas ICBM? I guess you missed the lengthy and entertaining history of failed programs leading up a rocket that still occasionally blew up for no apparent reason.

The Predator is the result of another long series of programs of incrementally-increasing capability, and the early ones were barely able to *fly* let along do anything useful.

For whatever its worth, as fact, China kicked out Google in a public and near hostile display and then immediately followed with a purposeful demonstration that it can hack into 30,000 google account holders. This is public knowledge. What we don’t know is what DoD and Google is not saying the extent of damage done by Chinese hackers. Software is software no matter what sophistication level it might be. We suspected from the first reports that it was Chinese R&D hackers that brought the drone down in Iran. Apparently the drone did not crash and was fully intact. Now we know it’s more fact than just ‘wonderin’.… Will we ever learn.…

That’s fine, but you are not including the technical support the company does supply to support the system during it’s early in use “teething”, which happens with any sophisticated equipment.
Besides, any major company, especially a publicly traded one has to make a profit for their investors and to help fund other projects, that may be an improvement to the item in concern or another. In truth NO company or corporation will manufacture anything for zero profit, unless it is a solely government owned entity. No business venture of any type is without risk.

Well, if you are going all conspiricy-ish… Are you sure that the UAV controllers didn’t land it deliberately… and that it wasn’t a production unit but a one-off bogusity loaded down with easter egg stuff that the investigators can spend years poking at just to learn it doesn’t work?

The Army/Marines said NO to Ford because they wanted a JLTV that would run.

Just curious, if the DoD chooses to go with Apple where is all of this going to be produced, China? First we need to rebuild our manufacturing base here in this country, then, yes we need to go back to the good old days when our manufacturers were thinking about taking care of our people in harm’s way, instead of their big fat bank accounts.

This is the major issue. The requirements include too many items that have not been demonstrated, need extensive development, or are simply unneeded. All this drives up development time, costs, complexity, and risk.

You also get too many different branches of DoD in on writing requirements and each one often has vastly different neededs. The F35 is a prime example. You can probably make a carrier and conventional aircraft of the same design without any huge variations (there is some structural differences but nothing that immediately rules out the possibilty of finding a common design). A short takeoff variant on the other hand is completely different and as a result has been a drag on the program, setting back progress significantly and diverting resources that could have been applied to the 2 main variants.

I’ve worked in CMMI environments at multiple certification levels. Google and Apple would grind to a halt if they had to comply even with level 4.

Ewing is absolutely correct in his criticism of Ewing’s naivety. Let me add another important point: even if a modern company like Apple could figure HOW to make a product like an “iFighter”, WHY would Apple want to divert its talent to make an “iFighter” when that would crowd out its ability to develop, design, and produce its highly profitable core product line that is sold globally?

The fact of the matter is that Apple has previously declined to modify its consumer oriented software to suit the requirements of enterprises and government if it had any negative impact to consumers. They really don’t pursue the government market with any real energy because it would be a distraction for them!

Furthermore, margins in a successful commercial entity are much, much higher than for defense contractors. Typical profit goals for a major defense contract are around 8%. One truck manufacturer said they make 40%profit on their specialized commercial trucks and the government gets mad when they ask for 12% on a defense project.

The reason why defense contractors are not efficient are two:
1 — government requirements are often not clearly defined, difficult to obtain, and/or change in mid-program.
2 — the government operates on the principle that more rules, regulations, reporting, and oversight leads to better efficiency. Unfortunately, it tends to decrease efficiency.

We still get (mostly) awesome military equipment, but it’s not efficient. Many successful commercial companies simply refuse to work under those rules. I doubt Apple would take a major defense program.

Your fundamental error is in assuming that the “specs that were outmoded the day they were written.”

Perhaps you would be accurate if you said some of the technology introduced at the beginning of the program will be obsolete by the time development is complete (such as processor chips no longer available) — but the overall system performance is usually very high, much higher than commercial counterparts but often less efficient.

One of the reasons that military development takes so long is precisely because sometimes the requirements are so difficult to achieve.

You are absolutely right, companies are in business to make money, and there’s nothing wrong with that. I think you are misinterpreting what I have to say to a degree. I want defense contractors to make money, but only to make it in proportion to the risk they are taking. In development, when risk is low, profits should be low. In initial production when risks are higher, they should make more profit. Once the production line is running smoothly, profit should drop off again.

The problem with the way they are paid now is they make too much money during development, encouraging them to drag that phase out. Then they try to kill the program before it produces weapons, and weapons is what the US taxpayer wants for their tax dollars, not hot air.

As a first cut, I’d lower development award fee to no more than 5%, raise initial production rates to 15%, and drop it to a steady state of 10% fee. That would be a minor and very doable first step in addressing the problems of our current procurement system.

Lockheed Martin recently laid off 10% workers with 15–20 years of experience to replace them with fresh from college new hires. This was done to lower overhead rates, which are factored into the evaluation process for picking the winner of a weapons contract. Competency, on the other hand, is NOT factored into that competition. In fact, defense contractors, because of the way their contracts are structured, are encouraged to hire the incompetent because it makes it easier to drag out development and jack up costs, and stupidity is not illegal. So sure these contractors have a hard time meeting requirements. It’s one thing to have your weapons built by the lowest bidder, but we have our weapons developed by the biggest bunch of well credentialed morons this country has available.

Now I’m making a generalization, and certainly there are plenty of very smart people in the defense business, but if you don’t think the idiots are in charge, ask those smart people if what I’m saying isn’t true. It quite obviously is true, because that’s where the financial incentives are.

Next they’ll be saying that someone who started Paypal could just step right in and build rockets better and cheaper than a major aerospace company can. Oh wait, SpaceX has already demonstrated that one, haven’t they?

SpaceX.

How could Apple make an airplane? Next thing you’ll be telling me that some guy who got rich writing Paypal software could build a rocket cheaper than Boeing or Lockheed. Ever heard of SpaceX?

More likely the fact that Chinese contractors won the bid for and run most of the satellite communications services for the US government. I know that sounds incredible, but a person in the industry told me this and I found it independently in some other publications as a matter of public record. This contact said it would be no problem for them to split into the com commands to the UAV.

I think your giving our side too much credit for a good idea — but I hope I’m wrong.

The thing about WW2 was that there were in fact a lot more failed fighter programs than successful ones. Think about all the consecutive numbers between say the P-38 and the P-80 (just too late for the war). How many were “successful”, built in any real numbers? Only a handful. Failure was a lot cheaper in those days. The strategy was to build a lot of different prototypes, most would fail, but the few that succeeded were built in massive numbers.

Seeing as Mr. Ewing is a career journalist, I don’t put much stock in his opions. I’m a huge fan of the policy of “walking a mile” in a man’s shoes before I lambaste him. I spent 20 years in the military, including a 3 year tour at the Naval Air Systems Command (NAVAIR), and I’ve spent nearly a decade since retiring from the military working for a private contractor supporting NAVAIR. In my opinion, Herman has hit the nail on the head. As for the world being “more complex than even 20 years ago”, the world is always more complex than it was 20 years ago. It’s all a matter of perspective. Industry was experiencing the same degree of challenges in 1939 that we are experiencing in 2012. It’s all just a different perspective. The crux of Herman’s argument is that (as Ronald Reagan so eloquently put it), government is not the solution to the problem, it is the problem.

There were probably 5 major aircraft designs in WWII for every one that made it out of Edwards in one piece. Perhaps 1/3 of those that survived were still only used as tech demonstrators (P59, P9R, etc.). And several had their mission scope narrowed to a crack in a door once they were out in the real world, and some of them cost us a fortune for no visible return. And the P-51 was built by us, but the thing only sang for its supper after they put the Brit Merlin in it. A lot of those planes went down at Edwards, and I’m not talking about making a visit to Pancho’s: a lot just made a big black smear in the desert. Our problem is the perpetual effort to build a pup tent that ends up with a 20-room camping Trailer.

Saywhat? They were originally running the data signals for the damned thing through the Internet. They might as well have written them on the walls of a bus station men’s room. One way or the other, the stupid thing was probably set up to save itself (i.e., land) if its control channel was cut off. A signal run from 500 miles away could be jammed by a Radio Shark kit with a couple of D-cells. Talk about bad security? Did they really think the Iranians had no modern radios?

High end UAVs are supposed to be controlled by sat/uplink, but I wouldn’t doubt a bit that some idiot in the program made an alternate decision. I read in Defense Update, that the Iranians had just received mobile jammers from the Russians, that could do just what you said.

I totally agree — please note the discussion with Bob just two posts above. We are our own worst enemy.

Yeah, who could stand to f around with software wasting money like a defense contractor? DO-178B exists for one reason and one reason only, to keep real software companies from competing with Boeing and Lockheed. High five.

Isn’t common operating system including windows are already rate at 4? By any means, they will definitely have hard time to raise it to mil-spec.

Yeah, let scrap software standard, and lets experience computer failure like the russian do.
http://​www​.space​.com/​1​4​5​3​9​-​r​u​s​s​i​a​n​-​m​a​r​s​-​p​r​o​b​e​-​fai

Or better, lets handle computer system on a reactive way, like montreal public transit (STM). They changed their system decade ago because nobody known how to maintain it. Zero failure. Now that they recently re-upgraded their system, two failure happened since, with complete subway failure, created by a cascade effects. The (traduced) word from the STM: “We did like home, we restarted everything and it worked well”.

Do you want a military system being managed like this?

Most of all, with an education system creating programmer putting emphasis on productivity over perfection, on # of line of codes reductions over efficiency, multimedia over mathematics, what to expect?

Where is the delete button? :)

I just confused EAL with CMMI. Windows and others are definitely not CMMI level 4. I am tempted to say it’s level 2+.

Right, our software never fails. That’s why Mars landers go zipping off into space. Funny how DO-178B didn’t catch that one, isn’t it? What, it didn’t test the functionality of the software? Oh yeah, who cares what the software does as long as there is none of that dreaded unused code. If DO-178B were worth a crap, its worth would be demonstrated statistically. As it is, DO-178B Level A code is no better than most video game code, with the notable exception that it costs billions of dollars more.

The government, in their usual arrogance, thinks they can negate the effects of capitalism with regulation. So they put all the profit incentives in place for contractors to drag out development and jack up costs, then they try to regulate out the contractors mechanisms for dragging out development and jacking up costs. And, surprise, the creativity of the contractors in finding new ways of screwing us exceedes the governments attempts at regulation! Who would have ever seen that coming? Sounds like the failure of the Soviet Union all over again, doesn’t it?

Failure is part of capitalism. When the Wall Street banks were deemed “too big to fail” what did that say about our committment to capitalism? Capitalism is all but dead in this country. It’s for chumps. Capitalism is the game people who don’t have the money to buy a senator or congressman have to play.

First, I have never said that our software were perfect. As fascinating as reliability can be, I am knowing very little about it, yet enough to be aware that in most case, it’s mathematically impossible to formally prove software correctness. While I have never worked with DO-178B –DO-178C is out– a quick research give a good hint, DO-178 is not meant to address software correctness from A to Z.

http://​www​.criticalsystemslabs​.com/​p​g​s​/​D​O​_​1​7​8​B​.ht
“RTCA DO-178B overview
.….

The purpose of D0-178B is “to provide guidelines for the production of software for airborne systems and equipment that performs its intended function with a level of confidence in safety that complies with airworthiness requirements.”

In short, this external standard provides guidelines for the development of software with a highly deterministic behaviour that conforms to its specified requirements.”

And the pdf clearly state that DO-178B does not even define how objectives have to be satisfied.
http://​www​.opengroup​.org/​r​t​f​o​r​u​m​/​j​u​l​2​0​0​1​/​s​l​i​d​e​s​/​w​l​a​d​.​pdf

> If DO-178B were worth a crap, its worth would be demonstrated statistically.
I am not sure what you mean here. What do you suggest, to give a contract to Sony entertainment for the space shuttle, with their “game” standard to see how it turn out? How do you want to statistically demonstrate it? Actually I am convinced that they are fully aware that you don’t code a game like you code a life-critical application. Funny thing is that categorization is part of DO-178.

>As it is, DO-178B Level A code is no better than most video game code, with the notable exception that it costs billions of dollars more.

That one must came from the same persons who said that people addicted to video games are smarter. Give me a break, do you seriously believe that you can compare a video game with a critical application? One is waisting tera-flops of computing power for performing a task that got no consequences beyond the pixels, to an application usually running on a processor less powerful than the first pentium, with hard deadlines to meet? And again, DO-178 is “not a software safety standard”. That fact that it might be possible spend a lot of efforts to deliberately make an application DO-178B leve A program as horrible as a video game –though I highly doubt it– does not mean that DO-178B is useless, nor inefficient.I hope that you are not pragmatic to to point to say that a program is working properly when you can compile it without any error and that when you run it everything went fine?

One cannot directly compare someone neglecting the most fundamental reliability (i.e. relying on subpar hardware) to a programming error that escaped standard in place (i.e. a constant not entered properly) is the same. These standard are not perfect and yes they are creating inefficiencies, here the need to categorize its importance, but they serve a purpose, to reduce risk. One need to be brilliant to find something better, it have been done and it will be done again; it doesn’t prove that these standard are made to suck up money.

Failure is part of everything, everyone and everywhere. When did we created the perfection? And so is corruption, it’s not solely tied to capitalism.

Somewhere I was told that a man named Thomas Wolfe said, you can never go home again. Such is the case trying to replicate the good old days with seamless defense acquisitions. That is impossible given the state of the economy. The American economy wasn’t linked to those other countries, it is different now. Whereas firms like GE, RCA and Westinghouse were on the same page with the Defense department, with the American people and had a sense of patriotism. Profit margins and bottom lines are at the forefront the executives of these companies, patriotism got put on the back burner. These executives answer only to the stockholders. Their operations were outsourced overseas and if the Americans buy the finished products when they imported, hooray for the companies, if their primary customers are overseas and they profit, still another hooray. The movie was right, It’s All About The Benjamins. What Arthur Herman alluded to is old-fashioned, they’ll laugh him out of the room.

So far so good, the Curiosity landed on mars.

The problem that you describe seems to be the company taking asking truckloads of money because of the risk, which will exist with or without DO-178.

And how DO-178 is keeping competition away from lockheed and boeing? I don’t get it.

A lot of writers are kidding themselves about the good old days and forgetting that the inefficiencies of world war II procurement were contracted under CPFF (cost plus fixed fee) contracts. The objective was to win the war by getting the best equipment out to where its needed when its needed … and cost was way behind performance, timeliness, reliability, and many other factors. Many of todays problems result from having to invent, design, and produce under a fixed price contract & schedule replete with financial penalties. It would be ridiculous to say NASA contracting was cost effective but we would never have gotten to the moon on fixed price contracting.

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