Campaigns pass on Afghanistan

Campaigns pass on Afghanistan

The Republican Party accidentally released its platform Friday afternoon much to the chagrin of political journalists in DC figuring it’s leak would mean a long Friday night analyzing the document.

Defense editors and reporters had no such worry. In fact, a prominent defense editor in DC sent an e-mail to a colleague saying he’d have to wave off happy hour because of the platform’s release. After reading the 12-page document, the defense editor rescinded on his cancellation and arrived to a well known DC watering hole promptly.

Thus is 2012 election coverage for military hacks in DC. The biggest story so far is the lack of attention the presidential candidates and their respective parties are giving it. Defense reporters are having to grasp at straws to find connections as Mitt Romney and President Obama have tried to avoid the subject.


Politico noted Monday the Republicans did not include a proposal making the rounds of some conservative circles that the U.S. spend 4 percent of its gross domestic product on the defense budget. Defense analysts had speculated that Romney would campaign on this spending promise to show his commitment to the military at a time when the Obama administration is planning to cut the Pentagon’s budget.

Rowan Scarborough of the Washington Times wrote that the Republicans will take aim at Obama’s “social experimentation” citing the end of Don’t Ask Don’t Tell and the consideration of opening up new roles to women in combat. Conservative groups have claimed this “experimentation” has affected military readiness, although the few ripples that followed the end of Don’t Ask Don’t Tell will be difficult to explain.

Again, the war in Afghanistan as a topic was avoided in the GOP’s platform. And frankly, it doesn’t make sense to bring it up for the Republicans since they haven’t succinctly defined how their approach would differ that much from the president’s.

This isn’t meant to beat up on the Republicans. It’s doubtful much will be mentioned about Afghanistan or the military when the Democratic National Convention kicks off in Charlotte, N.C., on Sept. 4. President Obama may bring up the raid to kill Osama Bin Laden, but not much else as the military slogs through its pull out from Afghanistan and deals with a spike of supposed Afghan allies killing U.S. troops.

The war in Afghanistan is a political loser. Americans have stated in multiple polls that they no longer support a troop presence in Afghanistan. A Quinnipiac University poll earlier this month found that 60 percent of registered voters felt the U.S. should no longer be involved in Afghanistan while just 31 percent  said the U.S. should stay in the fight. But neither candidate wants to suggest the U.S. leaves immediately for risk of looking weak on national security.

Here’s a tip to anyone thinking of visiting our nation’s capitol. Pick a week of one of the national conventions. The Metro is wide open. And it’s easy to get a table at any restaurant because the city is empty with all the journalists, think-tankers and politicians traveling to the convention.

One would think the same would be the case for military journalists with the nation at war in Afghanistan. But it’s simply not. The military is sitting this election out.

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Nothing on Neil Armstrong’s passing this weekend? Funny, back when NASA designed their own rockets we could send men to the Moon. Today we don’t even have a rocket that can send a man to low earth orbit to rendevouz with the space station. You can thank a defense contractor for that. Maybe you should send a check to the Boeing or Lockheed CEO, just to tell them how much you appreciate their destroying our manned space program. Sure they already take millions from you every year, but I’m sure every little bit extra will be appreciated.

OK!!!…thanks for your input.…

I’m a defense contractor. I’m not sure how I killed our manned space program, but you can thank me (and send me money) any time you want. And, by the way, if you really want to put another guy on the moon, we can do that. But it will cost you. Especially with all the extra constraints that the government puts on manned flight (for safety reasons). So, before you hire me to build another manned space program, you might want to consider costs of manned space ops, vs. the benefits of un-manned space ops.

I thought Dan Balz wrote this for a second.

How about you guys investigate the U.S. share of the $16 billion pledged to Afghanistan, over four years, instead of writing something I already read in the Post?

What’s your opinion on how the polls you cited will affect funding for this year and onward?

Two words about the absence of Afghanistan as a campaign topic: chickenhawks and cowards.

You wont find the same sense of entitlement amoungst chinese contractors. Which is why the next man on the moon will be Chinese.

“This isn’t to meant beat up on the Republicans. It’s doubtful much will be mentioned about Afghanistan or the military when the Democratic National Convention kicks off in Charlotte, N.C., on Sept. 4.”

Yeah, but you won’t write three articles focusing on the Democrats lack of Afghanistan discussion or even one on the Dem’s lack of addressing Afghanistan when they release their platform…

“Nobody knows where the next astronauts on the moon will come from. But I expect there is a good chance that they will be Chinese,” said Morris Jones, an Australian space expert. “China’s space programme is moving steadily forward. If they continue at this pace, they will develop the capability to reach the moon around 2030.” — http://​ca​.news​.yahoo​.com/​c​h​i​n​a​-​m​a​y​-​n​e​x​t​-​l​a​n​d​-​m​oon

On the up side, our defense contractors continue to post record profits in the midst of a global recession. What a brilliant idea it was to pay them more to fail. Hasn’t that worked out well?

But neither candidate wants to suggest the U.S. leaves immediately for risk of looking weak on national security.

I’m sure the 2000 dead troops don’t give a rats a$$ how you look.

Agred but they are politicians and are therefor trying to tell the public what they want to hear. The war in Afghanistan isn’t popular no matter how you talk about it. The DNC won’t be any different.

Good point and I bet you’re right that the DNC won’t address the issue and this website won’t point out how they are avoiding the issue.

And if neither side wants to talk about Afghanistan then they REALLY don’t want to talk about the way Pakistan shelters terrorists.

Sense of entitlement? Not sure what you mean. Are saying that defense contracting is not a competitive business? If so, why not join in? I mean, if all these contractors are living an entitled life, instead of earning their pay, why not jump in and undercut them all? Surely you can do better, right?
If you mean that our rules for manned space flight (and for that matter, much of our unmanned space flight) are so risk averse, that we spend much more than we should trying to make sure that nothing ever goes wrong, instead of just trying to get something into orbit, well then, I might agree with you. I think the Chinese are willing to reduce the price by taking bigger chances (and pay the price of more failures). Which, if you are willing to live with failures, and you don’t mind replacing a few billion dollar satellites, and a few expendable astronauts (like we did prior to 1969), is a quick way to learn and improve.

But of course, the US government now operates under a different (very risk averse) model. And good luck trying to convince them to change — unlike Chinese officials, our officials answer to the people, so when astronauts die (Challenger, Columbia, etc.) our leaders are held accountable. They are not allowed to shrug their shoulders, say “Oh, well. What a brave comrade! He died well for his country. Who is next?”, and plan the next launch.

We do things a bit different here. Here, if you want risk takers, you hand it over to the private sector. Hence the growth in private sector space exploration. We (the US) have already proven our space capability, so there is no public relations reward in proving that we can go to the moon again. So no government official is going to sign up to such a high risk, low payoff task. Nor should they. If an expensive, high risk, man-on-the-moon program is worth it to the Chinese, let them have at it. (Our officials are corrupt, we have no freedom, and few human rights, BUT, we can put a man on the moon!) We did the same when we needed the fix. (“What?!?! The Russians put up a satellite!? We need to DO SOMETHING!!”) So, instead of knee-jerk reaction of always blaming the contractors, why not learn something about what their governments asks them to do, and why? Our contractors (and the Chinese contractors) do what they are paid to do.

Come on, guys, Give Micheal Hoffman a break. He is assigned to write on the elections, from the perspective of a defense journalist. He was pretty strait-forward about it — nothing is happening, niether of the major parties are even talking about it, and even my bosses (the defense publication editors) know it, and are going out drinking. So, here it is — deadline met. See you at the bar.
Micheal — If the Dems do the same at their convenhtion (they will), and nothing new is happening in Afghanistan (it wont be), I expect the same deadline-busting article then, OK?

Sorry Joe but we’re the guys that deserve the break. He is supposed to write as a defense analyst but his bias shows. Thjere are two parties running you know? READ the other TWO stories ref the election and get back. I can lay it out for you but why belabor the point.

How about a candidate (or a party) that suggest the US leaves immediately for fiscal and philosophical reasons? Isn’t the fact that we are pouring billions of dollars (and our warriors blood) into a ****hole, with no real expectation of anything valuable in return, reason enough? It is for 2 out of 3 citizens, but not for our politicians. Unfortunately, even those 2 out of 3 (myself included) are not too riled up about Afghanistan right now, because we have bigger problems — like a government that is going broke because it can’t (won’t) control spending. But let’s be honest, Afghanistan is part of that problem.

(Perhaps a hat tip to Ron Paul would be in order. Sorry dude, you didn’t cut it in other areas.)

I think Obama does want to leave asap for fiscal & philosophical reasons, but he’s being realistic that we can’t just pull out immediately because of the commitments we’ve made. Paul Ryan is probably the same way, given his tea party connections.

Romney probably feels the same. I don’t know what commitments we’ve made, but it is time to stop making them.
Pulling out of Afghanistan does not strike me as being “weak on national defense”. Does patrolling a small, backward, land-locked nation, on the other side of the world, and giving billions of dollars to tribal leaders, local politicians, and fair whether friends (“as long as you keep paying…”) really even qualify as a serious national defense issue? Only in one sense — because we are spending SERIOUS cash. So stop it! And let Afghanistan be a non-issue for valid reasons – not because it doesn’t matter to Americans concerned with bigger things this election season, but because it really doesn’t matter to our national security.

The tea party has not taken a position on Afghanistan, Ron Paul has. There’s a difference. The Tea Party is primarily concerned with domestic issues. TEA stands for “Taxed Enough Already”. Some try and ascribe positions to the Tea Party for their own reasons.

Folks that support pulling troops out of Afghanistan without a plan to keep it from becoming a terror haven again are just kicking the can down the road with no thought as to future costs. That same thought process and attitude is why we have an out of control deficit and entitlement ponzi schemes.

We should just go back to the way things were before we started nation building. Leave special forces in the country to work with select tribes, in addition with small bases to launch drone strikes.

That’s viable in the north because they were much more united. Not so good for the border regions. Many different tribes many different agendas. That’s one of the key reasons we failed at Tora Bora. If we had the Northern Alliance they would not have cut a deal. If we tried the same approach in the border areas the Taliban would mass on one tribe as we tried to convince a neighboring tribe it’s in their interest to help.

I wish we could just leave also but the problem is very complicated and frankly it’s easier to change Pakistan than build a new Afghan country but that takes national will and we lost that long ago.

aren’t chickenhawks usually big supporters of the “war on terror”?

“the Republicans will take aim at Obama’s “social experimentation” citing the end of Don’t Ask Don’t Tell and the consideration of opening up new roles to women in combat…“
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How amusing — the republicans are (again) trying to claim that DADT was simply repealed because Obama wanted it repealed. However, reality is that DADT was determined by a federal court to be unconstitutional, and the conserative-led SCOTUS refused to hear the appeal. That ends the discussion in our form of government: DADT was dead from that point on.

The Obama administration simply determined that it was better off to repeal DADT on a schedule of its own making, instead of a schedule imposed by the federal court.

But far be it from the current crop of republicans to consider (or report) the facts when it interferes with their political objectives. Regardless of which party was in office — be it republican, fascist, or democrat — DADT would still be gone by now.

That’s why you settle for raids and drone strikes. These guys need a century or more before they are ready. We can’t afford to wait for them.

I agree with you. There’s a lot of things we don’t know about, but it seems we have a disproportionate financial and human life commitment to Afghanistan. We should have a carrot/stick approach to helping the Afghans. The more of an embarassment Karzai is, the less we should support him, and support alternative leaders. We should ramp down the Afghanistan effort and ramp up global, clandestine counter-terrorism ops.

I think there is actually great opportunity for consensus on Afghanistan across the political spectrum. We don’t want to be there, we don’t think it’s worth the cost, but we can’t pull out irresponsibly. The policy should be ramp down the commitment to a sustainable, indefinite presence. We can get better return on our resources by investing in other areas of the whole national security/defense portfolio.

OK, but at what point does preventing every place on earth from becoming a potential terrorist haven become an unrealistic national security objective? The world is full of such places. Afghanistan, Iran, Iraq, Libya, Egypt, Turkey, Philippines, Syria, Palestine, even UK, France — basically anywhere where Islam is a firmly established religion, and even more so if poverty and ignorance rule the day. Yes, we have a right (and an obligation) to protect the US, but we cannot simply declare a quarter of the world to be a potential threat to the US, and take it upon ourselves to police it all.

Well, I guess we COULD…but that would be a foolish extension of foreign policy beyond legitimate national security objectives, wouldn’t it? And that is not even mentioning all the other problems that such a foreign policy introduces from a military perspective – poorly defined missions, stupid politically motivated ROE, war fighters as peacekeepers (sitting duck targets), mission creep, forces stuck in reactive stance (police stance) instead of active (warrior) stance, high ops tempo with no clear exit criteria, endless expenditures, bribes, corruption, nation-building, etc.. Hence my objections.)

Majr0d — You talk as if you have experience in Afghanistan. I have none. I have only talked to others who have deployed there. So, explain how spending billions per year in Afghanistan NOW is a money saving proposal for the US. What is all our investment buying us? Long term allies? Friends who see the world our way? Allies capable of contributing to our national security interests? From what I’ve seen (and heard from others) the answer is no. Feel free to correct me.
Also — wouldn’t a bit of gun-boat diplomacy be more cost effective? Why not simply say – “Look, we came over here once, when things got out of hand. We’ll come back again if we have to. Don’t make us come back.”?

By your own admission, DADT is more than a constitutional issue — it is at heart a social issue, and a political football. And clearly court rulings DO NOT “end the discussion”. Proof — DADT was apparently quite constitutional when the Clinton administration pushed it upon us. But decades later, it’s suddenly unconstitutional! Hmm, imagine that! Either the constitution changed, or somebody has decided that it is their job to breathe life into this “living document”. Clearly, rulings on “constitutionality” are not binding, and every finding is open for negotiation (politicization). Social activist judges have reduced what was once considered the “final court of arbitration” to “the latest ruling from the appointed elite”.

a costs/benefits/risks approach is a good way to finding a reasonable policy course of action. every course of action (including staying the current course) could and should be modeled and the one with the biggest net present value + consideration for uncertainty & risk would be a logical choice. hopefully someone is developing such a model, which would be based on information people here most likely are not privy to. since such a model would be difficult to impossible to build, and its difficult to measure what benefits we are getting from our afghanistan policy, but the costs are real, i come to the conclusion that we should ramp down the costs (our commitment, footprint, and force structure) in a responsible fashion, and constantly monitor/analyze/mitigate the risks of doing so.

Ugh, I hate having to explain tactics and the realities of war to most folks because they’re not military professionals with a background in ground combat and then they tell you YOU’re wrong! (but I’ll give it a shot)

Drake – Raids and drone strikes need a secure base of operations, intel and a friendly country. Backing up and letting the Taliban run free jeopardize that. If drone strikes and raids are enough we would have put this to bed already. Spec Ops is not a panacea to Afghanistan or even terror in general.

JoeT – We might/might not be able to address every potential spot from which a terror attack against the homeland could be launched (BTW, we are) but it would be foolish and irresponsible to let Afghanistan become one AGAIN after 911. We don’t need to relearn history. For me the absolute min is stopping a repeat of 911 coming out of Afghanistan and addressing those places that an attack is actively being planned. What’s your minimum acceptable standard?

As for how war is conducted, those are all reasonable issues to discuss but you don’t quit because you don’t like the way the Generals are running the war. Lincoln just kept firing Generals, Oh, while you mentioned it, the ROE is a function of a ridiculous standard placed upon the military of zero civilian casualties. When McCrystal first set the ROE a Gov’t official stated that was the administration’s standard. Interestingly enough, it was also the standard for the drone program (via the NYT story). The fix there was they changed the standard on what constitutes a terrorist. NOT the same standard in Afghanistan.

How is sending troops to Afghanistan a saving proposal? That’s a ridiculous question. Name one war that saved us money? Wars are not conducted to save money. They are conducted to further our national objectives when no other means is possible. SILLY PREMISE! What is it buying us? Ugh (for a second time) keeping Afghanistan from becoming a terror haven to launch attacks against the homeland.

I have written at length on other options that attack the center of gravity of the problem, Pakistan. http://​www​.dodbuzz​.com/​2​0​1​2​/​0​7​/​0​3​/​p​a​k​i​s​t​a​n​-​t​o​-us–
BTW “gun boat diplomacy” takes national will.

Peritus — Costs/Risks/Benefits? Have you heard of McNamara? You forget two of the most important criteria, goal and national will. Not saying your approach is totally wrong but that equation has already been run (to include the most important criteria). The current policy is the best possible given the current state of national will which can be formed in one of two ways, a national event and leadership from the top. I don’t want the first and the second isn’t possible

PW — “the conserative-led SCOTUS refused to hear the appeal”

You lie a lot. The SCOTUS never refused to hear the case. In fact the constitutionality of DADT was never addressed to the Supreme Court.
http://​tpmmuckraker​.talkingpointsmemo​.com/​2​0​1​0​/11

DADT was repealed as literally as the last blow by a lame duck democrat majority congress AFTER an election where the nation changed that right before the Christmas recess which was delayed to push it through.

The democrat majority that voted for it had been voted out of office and couldn’t be held responsible by the people. If they had done it before the election they would have lost even more representatives in the house. Politics at its worst.

I would recommend a civics class but considering your record for falsifying facts it would be a waste. I do recommend everyone confirming your statements because of your willingness to lie as demonstrated by saying the NIE of 2007 was evidence the Iranians weren’t pursuing nukes, McCrystal said Bush almost lost Afghanistan in his report (he didn’t say that), that the military is the weakest since Vietnam (nope, Carter has that honor) and Fox new is outlawed in Canada (it’s not). No doubt your handle is justified

thanks for coming down to our ignorant level and gracing us with some pearls of wisdom from your taxpayer funded training & experience. sorry its’ so distasteful to you. one thing to keep in mind about the drone warfare approach is that it is a very new, disruptive technology, with lack of recognition and appreciation for its capabilities, so I wouldn’t rush to judge that a raids/drone strike strategy might not be long term viable solution. we are just beginning to develop doctrine & widespread adoption/integration into the warfighting architecture of uav’s and their caabilities. on the afghan/9/11 argument. what if afghanistan as is with karzai as the leader is a hopeless battle? surely in your experience you’ve studied when battles were lost causes and how one of the hardest but wisest decisions, was to know when to quit (or atleast change strategy), so that you could reconstitute and fight again? you are determined to “stopping a repeat of 911 coming out of afghanistan”.

well that’s great but what makes afghanistan any more a future base for terror operations vs. yemen, somalia, or cyberspace? guess how much time umar farouk abdulmutallab spent in afghanistan? I have heard of McNamara what does that have to do with this? I didn’t forget goal & national will, I just didn’t have space/time to write about it n this limited environment. how do you get to write such long posts, anyway? The current policy is obviously NOT the best, due to lack of measurable results, very real costs, and declining public support (national will). Finally, you need to open up your mind about possibility. You may say highly unlikely, but “not possible” should not be part of an officer’s vocabulary, so i was informed by a previous csa.

“what makes afghanistan any more a future base for terror operations vs. yemen, somalia, or cyberspace?” Uh because an attack came out of there once already? BTW, we’re addressing those other locals you mentioned.

I disagree. “not possible” should not be used LIGHTLY by any officer (BTW, I served as a company commander under then LTC Dempsey). Some one that says it should NEVER be used is looking for “yes men”. I was taught an officer exhausts every option before reporting failure or requesting more assets.

For sure “quit and run” shouldn’t be in one’s vocabulary.

How do I write such long posts? A smart officer should be able to figure that out.

I wasn’t satisfied with “not possible” :)

No” rush to judge”. We’ve been doing drone strikes for a decade and at an accelerated rate for three years. My assessment is hardly being made in a vacuum.

Instead of being condescending about my input and trying to teach me military history after I dedicated three decades learning it, it might behoove you to listen to a military professional vs. telling one how to do his job.

The Pres has the ultimate responsibility for warfighting startegy. If he doesn’t like the way things are going he can select another General. Worked for Lincoln and FDR. One key difference though, Lincoln/FDR defined an end state and they did all they could to mobilize national will. There’s a lesson there…

well an attack came from yemen prior to 9/11 and thousands of attacks come from cyberspace daily which undermines your argument for staying the course in afghanistan. we may be addresing others but disproportionatety so, with the majority of resources tied to afghanistan. so terror attacks have orginated from afghanistan. as you’ve informed us many times, we are fighting against a thinking, adaptive enemy that gets a vote. in the game of risk you are forced to deploy scarce resources across the globe. we have global interests with woeful under-resourcing in way too many areas. the 9/11 disaster could have been prevented much more cheaply (and reliably) with secure aircraft cockpit doors vs forward deploying a large force and rebuilding a bassackwards nation.

what goes around comes around. where do you get that i tried to teach you military history? by asking you a question? judging by your non-answering of such questions, it is clear that you are the one that does not listen to other military professionals. you painting the Pres into a corner that the only option he’s got is to change his General does not bode well for an open minded person. Short of changing Afghanistan Generals, Obama might first try getting more actively involved with the principals. Bush dealt with Karzai far more directly than Obama, who often leaves that to the SecDef. Obama met with McChrystal for one photo op before McChrystal self destructed. The real lesson with Lincoln & FDR is that neither situation is very analogous to the Afghan mission. Lincoln & FDR were both dealing with total war/national survivability at stake, a little bit different than trying to rebuild Afghanistan.

Majr0d – You said “Folks that support pulling troops out of Afghanistan without a plan to keep it from becoming a terror haven again are just kicking the can down the road with no thought as to future costs.” I asked “how spending billions per year in Afghanistan NOW is a money saving proposal for the US?” You replied “How is sending troops to Afghanistan a saving proposal? That’s a ridiculous question. Name one war that saved us money? Wars are not conducted to save money”. Hmm…Wasn’t it you who just suggested that the justification for staying in Afghanistan was consideration of “the future costs” of withdrawing now?

Majr0d – I did read your other posts. Fine work. Basically, I think we disagree on this: you think our presence in Afghanistan is an effective plan for preventing further 9–11 type attacks. I disagree. Better to protect the homeland at home, than attack all possible threats. Don’t get me wrong — I’m not a “close-your-eyes-and-the-problem-goes-away” guy. And I do believe in applying pressure where pressure is due. But 9–11 was a sucker punch, and it won’t happen like that again. Not because of our presence in Afghanistan, but because of our improved homeland security.

Using the military to protect the homeland is the path to a police state. Better over there that overe here.

As to our improved homeland security only ONE was stopped (the second underwear bomber). Just about every other external plot was foiled because of incompetent terrorists (e.g. sneaker bomber, underwear bomber, Hasan etc.)

The future costs I was referring to weren’t monetary unless you can price a human life.

An Afghanistan from which terror can be planned will cost more American civilians and even more American troops because when we go back most Affghans will not side with us after abandoning them and the enemy wil have know they beat us once and will draw more recruits and fight harder.

We didn’t take the easier road during the cold war to forward our bill to our children’s mailbox.

Where were you trying to teach military history? “with lack of recognition and appreciation for its capabilities, so I wouldn’t rush to judge that a raids/drone strike strategy might not be long term viable solution.” We’ve been using drones for a decade and heavily I the last three years. We’re ne closer to victory. You decry the strategies in use for not working but have a different standard for drones. Brilliant!

The Civil War and WWII were different. True that doesn’t excuse the fact we don’t have an end state. Victory was defined. Civil war had “preserve the union”, WWII had “unconditional surrender”. Afghanistan – nothing. Can’t tell the difference?

Rebuilding Afghanistan is a strategy, not a stated end state. This President is uncomfortable with the WORD “victory”. How in the heck can he define it. Not only his problem. Bush didn’t define it either and the stumbling goes on.

You think the Cole undermines my argument? Really? Was the Cole in NYC? Were thousands of innocents civilians killed? Do you realize the terrorists were part of AQ and the Fatwa that inspired the attackers was released by Bin Laden out of Afghanistan. Your logic is ridiculous. Next you’ll be promoting raid on Nogan and Newark Airport because that’s where the planes from 911 took off from.

A much better example would be the several discos and bases were bombed by Libya in Berlin or should we have gone to war with Germany? In any case they don’t meet the standard of weapons of mass destruction that killed THOUSANDS of Americans and necessitated definitive action to stop the source of those attacks.

Equating cyberspace attacks to the above is just as ridiculous. Just like saying secure aircraft doors are the answer to terrorism. Brilliant. Will you be telling us to check the air pressure in our cars as a solution to the energy crisis?

You state “We’ve been using drones for a decade and heavily in the last three years.” Are we supposed to accept this as fact or the subjective opinion that it is? ans — it is your subjective opinion. even if we accepted your definition of “heavy” use, let me remind you that using something “heavily” and fully exploiting capabilities and optimal integration into a total force architecture are different things. The USAF is ruled by fighter pilots. The resources, leadership focus, and political capital have been expended on F-22 and F-35. bottom line, we do not have an adequate sample of experience to deny the hypothesis that a long term drone warfare campaign is not a viable long term strategy for the Afghanistan problem. we DO have a lot of knowledge of them racking up kills, logging tons of sorties & flight time, and knowledge that they are having a great psychological impact of the enemy.

Please post the details on the “Record Profits” that you are claiming.

yes it does. your argument is to stay the course, which i contend is a disproportionate commitment of resources to the neglect of the full range of fronts of the war on terror. my argument is ramp down afghanistan, to a sustainable long term indefinite presence, and fairly balance the resources across the full range of problems to manage overall risk to the United States.

Yemen is an example of a place where there not as many military resources. If I were a terrorist and wanted to strike the US, why would I plan/train in Afghanistan/Pakistan, with many US resources and constant fear of being smoked by a UAV, when I could find a quieter place? It’s easy for you to spite my logic, when you construct a false one & attribute it to me. and yes, more secure aircraft doors would have prevented 9/11. there’s a reason why they are all upgraded now post 9/11. i believe the laws/standards at the time were not enforced, even though airline rage/assaults on aircrew had been going on for awhile.

such security measures are obviously brilliant no-brainer risk management investments that should and could be made more consistently, were our resources not overly focused on any one particular overseas war. if you check out the 9/11 report pg 85 you see that FAA rules since the 60s required doors to be locked during flight, but the reqt was not always observed or enforced. pg 352 outlines a full range of FAA practices that could have prevented 9/11, and the document in general is full of missed opportunities and mistakes that contributed to the disaster. http://​govinfo​.library​.unt​.edu/​9​1​1​/​r​e​p​o​r​t​/​9​1​1​R​epo

“Our strong first quarter results reflect the strength of our portfolio and the commitment of our team to deliver value to our customers and shareholders,” said Bob Stevens, chairman and chief executive officer. “Throughout the remainder of 2012, we will focus on reducing costs and improving program execution to remain competitive and deliver value”

Good thing we never lose satellites or Mars rovers due to forgetting to convert units. By the way, we never lost a Saturn V, yet at one point in shuttle history 1 in 7 astronauts who had flow had died in a fireball. Defense contractors do compete. They are competitive liars.

Hey, instead of learning from the communist Chinese, why don’t we learn from our own history? Our history says that if you pay a for-profit corporation more to fail, they find all new ways to fail. You pay them more to succeed and they find new ways to succeed. When we want to build a new, high risk launch system to put men on the Moon we succeeded when we had a government agency design the vehicle. We failed when we had a contractor design the vehicle at taxpayer expense. Programs that pay contractors to design vehicles at the taxpayer’s expense continue to fail year after year. No real mystery why.

Record Profits is not the same thing as “strong first quarter results”. “Strong first quarter results” may be discussing sales(revenues) as opposed to profits. Their operating profit (before taxes, etc) is in the low 11% range which isn’t very good when compared to financials in other industries.

The point you’re missing in this case — is that when a law is created it isn’t automatically reviewed by the SCOTUS. If/when there are problems discovered, revealed, etc, with a given law, it is usually taken to court, and if redress isn’t found at one level — the case is often appealed. And that can take YEARS as it did with this case to go through the process.

Just as the case to repeal Roe vs. Wade hasn’t been found (yet — if ever) that hasn’t stopped people from trying. In the case with DADT — the case justifying its lack of constitutionality was found much earlier. It is as you say also a social issue as well — but so was racial discrimination prior to the integration of the school systems — yet now it is largely accepted as a fact of life (with some exceptions).

And BTW — the only way for the constitution to change is with a 2/3 majority agreeing to it in both house and senate. Thats why changes in that respect are so very rare.

Keep up with the conservative smear campaign — it does you no credit.

And your continuing contention that McCrystal didn’t point at the severe errors on the part of the Bush Administration would be laughable if it wasn’t so tragic. McCrystal’s opinion agreed with the British opinion which agreed with multiple years of NIE’s and the Bush Administrations own documentation — you still try to convince yourself (and other weak-minded or uneducated fools) to the contrary. The Bush Administration was a tragic failure by even the most generous of measures — according to every nation on this planet regardless of friend or foe. You might’ve noticed how not once has any republican candidate mentioned the former POTUS or VP Cheney (let alone the republican party) throughout the entire campaign. They weren’t even wanted for the convention — and the RNC openly pretends that Bush didn’t even exist — you’d think we went from Clinton to Obama. But the evidence is overwhelming and the facts are clear.

BTW — you can find the results of the Presidential Rankings Studies that score GWB as the worst POTUS in over a century — scored FAR below that of Jimmy Carter (who’s record looks downright enviable in comparison). Sorry — you cannot BS your way out of that one :-D

You just don’t like the facts as they are — and thats not my problem.

The JCS of staff force readiness report to the POTUS (2009) is what stated that US armed forces are at their lowest state of readiness since Viet Nam — and you don’t make yourself look smart by claiming otherwise. I’ll take the JCS assessment of the FACTS before your self-serving opinion any day.

And BTW — Fox is now allowed to broadcast in Canada — but that wasn’t because I was lying (I leave that to the right-wing crazies that can’t accept reality — despite mountains of evidence), its because since the discussion started 10 years ago the situation has since changed.

Cheers.

Locked airplane wouldn’t have stopped 911. Airline policy at the time was to cooperate with terrorists and Fl 93 went down after the passengers breached the cabin door. Today those attacks are much more difficult because the passengers aren’t going to sit still. Hence the attempts with bombs which enhanced doors don’t address that all failed because of incompetent terrorists and vigilant passengers (not paid for by the DHS.

Brilliant no-brainer…

The fact remains we have been incredibly lucky that so many foreign plots (not domestic stings) have failed because of incompetent terrorists. Removing pressure abroad will increase the number of attacks.

So you aren’t saying just bring the military home now but cut it 50% and there will be no impact? Really? Half the Army, Navy, Marines & Air Force won’t have an impact in the nation? If only Ron Paul’s vision of foreign policy could work on some planet besides the one he lives on (love his domestic thoughts though). If only security started at 12 miles from our beaches? (sigh)!

Yes, using the military for internal security might keep chaos & civil disorder from breaking out in the short term but it would not be long before our enemies impacted our way of life (ignoring the military’s impact on maintaining civil order and discovering and combating terror at home). How did isolationism work out for you in 1939?

No, provide a link and page where McCrystal said in his report “that Bush almost lost Afghanistan”. That has been ypur repeated contention on military​.com where I learned so well that you lie.

Post a link and page or QUOTE from the JCS staff readiness report where THE MILITARY said it was at its lowest state of readiness since Viet Nam! You can’t do it! It didn’t happen. Congressmen made such statements to make political points. I’ve told you this before and your keep repeating the SAME LIES!

If you want to harp on Bush being the worst Pres because of some popularity contest knock yourself out. Keep in mind this is DoDBuzz and not the Huffington Post. There’s a much smarter crowd here and most aren’t here for politics!

first off it is debatable whether there is even such a thing as luck. many theologically oriented types would make the case that God is sovereign over everything in the universe. and aha! i found a brilliant quote from Robert Heinlein: “There is no such thing as luck. There is only adequate or inadequate preparation to cope with a statistical universe.” i like the reference to statistics. probability would be an even better antidote for our innumerate culture (look that up). here’s another great pearlfrom Seneca, Roman philospher “Luck is what happens when preparation meets opportunity.” My policy would not be a 50% cut, that was just a figure used for argument’s sake comparing the national security return on investment from Afghanistan and DHS.

if you think i was suggesting a 50% to the total end strength of the military services, then God help you. I believe we need a flat to slightly increasing DoD topline budget, and DoD leaders need to get their collective heads out of their collective butts, and learn how to do the mission within existing resources by stop wasting so much $$ by throwing good money after bad. Their record on compliance with law, federal, and their own regulations is abysmal. i don’t think you quite understand what i am getting at when it comes to using the military for homeland security. on a daily basis, USCG (DHS) does quite a bit. The USAF is prepared to shoot down civilian airliners in event of another 9/11 type scenario, and I’m all for using the Guard (or any relevant resources) to augment state, local, and FEMA resources in sitiuations such as Katrina, Deepwater Horizon, and Isaac.

the distinctions between military & non-military missions is blurring. the future model is joint interagency task forces organized ad hoc per whatever mission is required, meaning we need to start organizing, training, and equipping now. for you to attribute isolationism to me would provide no clearer definition of the term ‘straw man fallacy’.

you bring up a good point, but more secure doors are only one part of a multi-layered security approach. the reinforced doors did a good job of keeping the the Fl 93 passengers out of the cockpit when the terrorists were flying the plane, and because of them we have a lot of CVR evidence. we don’t have CVR evidence of the other flights, so it’s hard for me to believe that the terrorists would have negotiated any demands. i’m starting to think the doors were open, in violation of policy since the 60s… since you won’t trust my opinion that reinforced cockpit doors would have made a difference, and make a difference today, check out this article from the economist: http://​www​.economist​.com/​b​l​o​g​s​/​g​u​l​l​i​v​e​r​/​2​0​1​1​/​0​5/m… finally you don’t need to attribute to ME that i made the argument that a locked airplane would have “stopped” 9/11. “all or nothing” thinking is anathema to me, however, sometimes this imperfect world & culture drags me down to its level. seriously, I am the last person on earth that needs a lesson in risk management and residual risk.

You think it’s only my word that we’ve been using drones for a decade and heavily for the last three? You have to open the newspaper more.

As for further leveraging drones oneirrefutable historical lesson is even when we darkened the sky with our planes it took troops on the ground to win a decisive victory.

Keep promoting drones and spec ops as the panacea to terror and insurgencies, seems to have worked in Afghanistan (NOT!). Yep keep promoting.

you are being ridiculous and embarassing yourself. You have to make up arguments and attribute them to me in order to try to win a debate. Definition of panacea: “a remedy for all diseases or ills”. Me: “ramp down the Afghanistan commitment, to a sustainable & indefinite level, being mindful of the risks involved as we draw down” Did I say I thought this would solve all Afghanistan’s or our problems? No. Do I think this will solve all our terrorism problems? No. Contrary, reallocating the scarce resources would free them up to be applied to many other gaps in the war to fight terrorism and make the world a better place. and on your first question, i’m not calling you a liar to the fact of using drones for a decade and heavily for 3 years.

i said “heavy” is subjective, meaning, if you think the current usage of drones is “heavy”, we could double it and it would get “heavier”, but still “heavy”, or maybe “not heavy enough” or “too light” by some other way of thinking. and you didnt’ address my point about leadership focus. you could have “heavy” use of a particular resource, but if leadership attention is focused elsewhere and resources get wasted, it doesn’t matter if you “heavily” used them or not.

If its a race to embarrass oneself I admit you won.

I’m not putting words in your mouth. You promoted a drone strike, spec op approach. I’ve been quite patient explaining why that won’t work because the enemy will focus on the smaller footprint and eliminate it.

If you want to continue the condescending tone I can play to. In the meantime you are proposing solutions doomed to failure based on what we’ve seen the enemy do in the past and our ability to interdict him.

I’m a big fan of leadership. Unfortunately leadership doesn’t make the wrong weapons work in every situation. If so D-Day would never have been necessary.

The article made my point. “Today those attacks are much more difficult because the passengers aren’t going to sit still. Hence the attempts with bombs which enhanced doors don’t address that all failed because of incompetent terrorists and vigilant passengers (not paid for by the DHS.)“
Thanks.

You don’t want to debate “luck”. OK, fine. It remains that DHS didn’t do a darn thing to stop the bombers I listed, untrained passengers did.

You want to talk about natural disasters instead of Afghanistan, again fine. Knock yourself out. This is a DoDBuzz not DHSBuzz. Our conversation started about a road ahead for Afghanistan. What that has to do with Katrina I know not but I leave you to figure it out.

You can make predictions of future interagency joint task forces. Knock yourself out. Don’t think we’ll see a bunch of state dept types donning body armor and manning minesweepers in the Persian gulf if the baloon goes up. Same goes for contingencies involving China or if we have to launch special ops across a border to take out some terrorists…

Read the readiness report yourself — you know where to find it :-D I’m not going to hold your hand for you. And the Background section of the Afghanistan Assessment is all you need to read and understand how poorly that campaign was managed. I recommend EVERYONE should read it for themselves — because your failure to put two and two together w/r/t obvious conclusions in that report isn’t flattering to you.

And the Presidential Rankings studies aren’t popularity contests — and there might be a smarter crowd posting here that you are clearly not a part of — but that isn’t MY problem. Go and read those as well — G W Bush came in FAR LOWER in the rankings than even Jimmy Carter (a new low for the century for lousy presidential performance). You can ignore the world press as well — but that is also to your discredit: the facts are clear — the rest of the planet, regardless of friend or foe — considers the presidency of George W Bush to be a disaster for the United States.

And even the RNC and republican party agree — because not ONE candidate has uttered his name or sought his endorsement (or that of former VP Cheney). Not ONE. The entire campaign season and republican mantra over the past 3.5 years is to pretend that GWB didn’t even exist. Try and prove otherwise — but you won’t — because you can’t.

If you feel it necessary to pollute yourself with self-serving nonsense, or otherwise attempt top use opinions in hopes that it’ll become fact you are wasting your time. You are entitled to your own opinions — you are not entitled to your own FACTS. And just because we don’t happen to agree doesn’t mean I’m lying (you accuse everyone of lying who doesn’t agree with you — its almost a daily occurrence on mil​.com). And even when given references you don’t accept them as reality.

Again — thats YOUR problem — not mine.

cheers.

Just what I thought. You don’t know where to find it either because it doesn’t exist. Nor does the statement from the MILITARY that “assesses its readiness at its lowest since Nam.”

McCrystal’s report background section is good reading but he doesn’t blame Bush as you have stated.

BTW, the Republican parts actually had both Bush’s on TV last night supporting Romeny.

Just goes to show what you think passes for facts. You’re a liar and everyone needs to know and beware. Not one FACT or REFERENCE to support your positions. Your handle is PERFECT, the only better one would be CANTHELPLYING..

How about fighting the war on terror like we want to actually WIN IT for a change. We owe our country a victory as well as to our veterans who served in the armed forces and who fought it on the battlefields over seas. As a Veteran myself, I demand this from our President or they can just resign from office in disgrace.

yes you do put words in my mouth when you characterize my position as “spec ops & uavs is panacea”. i clarified my position above as a ramp down of us commitment, while managing the risk associated with that change in strategy. the current strategy is the demonstrated failure, a big driver is Karzai’s mental illness. your (sic) “oneirrefutable lesson of the dark sky” argument above is a silly one i’d expect from a liberal poet, not a serious military professional. one difference between manned planes and uav’s is uav’s have a much longer loiter time. another problem is you have applied a situtation that is in the wrong context. we are not dealing with a total war state vs state conflict here where decisive victory in a WW2 sense of the term is necessary or possible. The counterinsurgency manual ratio would suggest 672K boots on the ground is the minimum effective troop density. we are nowhere near capable of surging that many troops and you risk a greater escalation of conflict as well. finally your charge of condescention reeks od odious hypocrisy. lets get back to substantive points.

it actually underminded it. in your condescending tone above, you sarcastically derided reinforced cockpit doors as not being able to have prevented 9/11. the article above cited several examples of people trying to break into the cockpit, and the reinforced doors provided time for the flight attendants & passengers to restrain the individuals. the shift in tactics to bombs vs breaking into the cockpit is actually evidence to the efficacy of the reinforced doors as a security measure.

we do use the monetary value of life in policy making decisions. and for $100B annual we could save many more lives than were lost in terror attacks from Afghanistan. and it could also be invested in economic growth initiatives so that in future years, we could be better able to afford and sustain a $100B a year mission. all your assertions about the future state of Afghanistan should be summarily rejected, because you are thinking in know it all deterministic terms. Realtiy is future states are stochastic, probabilistic, and chaotic in nature, as any good analyst knows how to model, and would contribute to the debate in honesty. those are some big words. look them up and deal with it. they would be very valuable additions to your toolset in policy debate.

You’re right, there is no mystery why — because it is a complex (and hence risky) business no matter who does it. (BTW — You seem to have forgotten the failures, explosions, fires. and deaths under gov agency NASA during the build-up to 1969 moon mission.)
And whether the engineer is gov or contractor, his work is at taxpayer expense, so no real difference there (except gov employee more expensive with gov pension package ). Your complaint always seems to be the same thing — you hate cost-plus contracts. OK, we got it. Of course, they do serve a legitimate purpose (design phase, gov assumes the risk, gov controls costs, pulls plug immediately if unhappy with progress, etc.) If these contracts did not serve gov needs, they would not use them. But then you always seem to spill over into “contractors = bad, gov = good”. At that point, my attitude becomes “OK, whatever”.

Frome the article… “But nearly as crucial was a change in attitude. Before 9/11, most hijackings had ended on the ground, with the vast majority of the passengers surviving. For passengers, the smart move was to cooperate and hope that they got out okay. The 9/11 hijackings changed all that. After 9/11, the vast majority of airline passengers are now inclined to resist any attempts to hijack a plane (or anything that resembles a hijacking attempt.)”

I would add the shoe bomber and the underwear bomber weren’t banging on the pilot’s door.

Feel free to argue the $100bil annual “savings” is more important and efficient than preventing future 911’s. Americans clearly won’t stand for attacks to the homeland. The national reaction to 911 showed anyone awake at the time that reality. I also reject the“savings” premise when discussing wars of national security. Could one see ANYONE arguing against responding to Pearl Harbor because we could use the money more efficiently.

I notice that you use plain, simple language, short words and brief sentences. That is the way to write English — it is the modern way and the best way. Stick to it; don’t let fluff and flowers and verbosity creep in. When you catch an adjective, kill it. No, I don’t mean utterly, but kill most of them — then the rest will be valuable. They weaken when they are close together. They give strength when they are wide apart. An adjective habit, or a wordy, diffuse, flowery habit, once fastened upon a person, is as hard to get rid of as any other vice. — Mark Twain

I’ll let the reader determine who’s the hypocrite or condescending. As for your approach I can’t hepl you communicate better and again. I’m happy to leave it to the reader whose argument is better.

“Ramping down” before one is winning or is at least stable is more commonly called “retreat”.

Your COIN math ignores the multipliers. Reread the manual. Secondly, the COIN manual’s goals are not our national goals which have not been definitively stated by this or the previous administration. There’s an adage, “if you don’t know where you’re going, you’re sure to get nowhere”.

pearl harbor another misuse of analogy, since a state of total world war existed prior to pearl harbor, not present prior to 9/11. congrats on finding the ultimate weapon to end any intellectual debate. oops sorry I used two adjectives there, must have overloaded your brain. “wordy, diffues, flower’ wow those are all adjectives…and you really kicked my butt up there with the “brilliant” no brainer smack down. you are a hypocrtial female hygeine product.

you “know not” because you are too self absorbed and Army-centric to see the bigger picture. maybe some day you can appreciate the entire enterprise of national security and the portfolio of agencies and investments that contribute. maybe some day you can see the infinitely complicated task of trying to detect bombs in shoes or in underwear, in face of hostile public opposition to reasonable security measures. you make it quite clear that there is a lot that you “know not” and “care not’ about, huckleberry. regardless, i look forward to reading your future attempts to divert attention from substantive debate through the use of quotes from Mark Twain. Knock yourself out over that! more quotes!!

Unable to counter my points you attempt to minimize my input. Yep, I had you sized up right from the begining. I’ll let the reader judge.

LOL, you accuse me of ending intellectual debate and then YOU call me a hypocrtial female hygeine product!

Quit whining keyboard commando.

majr0d got it right, and can definitely see a bigger picture than you want to. Door are an effective measure to avoid hijacking, nobody argued against it; it remain that hijacking a plane is only one of many way to perform terrorism, yet another proof that you are loosing focus.

Even with reinforced doors prior to 9/11, one of the thing an hijacker could have done to gain access to the cockpit would be as simple as telling the pilot that they will kill passenger if he doesn’t open the door. Et voila! Because in that time, the odds that an hijacker could kill people that were not on board was small. I am convinced that a pilot saying to such hijacker f** y**, and ending up killing couple of passenger would went to jail, and the airline hit by a lawsuit for having hired an incompetent pilot who “murdered their families”.

And how do you call a bomb that failed to explode? Unless you are with the terrorist, this is called luck. Absolute security is not part of this world; we have been lucky.
http://​news​.bbc​.co​.uk/​2​/​h​i​/​8​4​3​0​6​1​2​.​stm

That’s just my opinion though.

I am extremely concerned by theses enterprise of national security. Private war (or semi-private in the case of Afghanistan) is very, very expensive and is only there because we live in a world where somehow media try to show that “clean war” can exist. A war with for objective, zero collateral damage. It was cool when it was about precision strike, but it’s ridiculous when you end up needing to call a private company when the task is not within that invisible political standard.

the existence or non-existence of luck is a theological debate. don’t get me wron the terrorists’ incompetence surely did contribute to non-catastrophe in both the shoe & underwear bombing. however don’t negate the post 9/11 security measures completely. by forcing the terrorists to hide bombs in their clothing, versus a more reliable bomb hidden in a suitcase that would have gone through the screening device, the probability of catastrophe was reduced. you are correct that absolute security is not possible. there is always residual risk, especially if you want a free, open society with all its economic benefits.

you ended theological debate when you declared martial law on the use of objectives. you demonstrate your hypocrisy when you continue to use them yourself. thus the appropriate and funny jest. so quit whining and start cleaning, huckleberry!

you stand up for major rod, who scoffed at the concept of reinforced doors. then you agree with me that doors are an effective measure. this debate lost focus when maj rod declared martial law against the use of adjectives, while continuing to use them himself. your second paragraph — i agree with you that there are ways that hijackers can defeat doors. that is why i would not place emphasis on them alone, but as one key part of a multi-layered defense. you also have to have smart policy, and enforcement. i’m starting to believe that on 9/11 the doors were not closed and locked in flight as per faa regulation since the 60s. some 9/11 theorists believe the terrorists may have disguised themselves as pilots who conned their way into the jumpseats. i believe the pilots on 9/11 must have been surprised, maybe even with a gun. if the pilots had time to respond to a threat to open the door, they would have signaled a hijacking to faa atc’s on the ground.

when we need someone to state the obvious we know who to go to. the use of the bombs hidden in clothing is actually testimony to the utility of the reinforced doors, as well as the enhanced screening of carry on luggage. the terrorists were forced to change tactics — not being able to use a more reliable bomb hidden in luggage, and being deterred from breaking into the cockpit, they were forced to resort to silly bombs. the lessons learned, and renewed focus on the terrorist threat, were actually major plusses for us in the war on terrorism, and didn’t require spending 100s of billions and k’s of casualties in overseas protracted ground conflict.

Wars are not conducted to save money…
Damn right. Looking at history, Britain only occupied/raided/invaded what eventually became Afganistan (and Pakistan) in the 1700’s and 1800’s to be a buffer zone north of the Jewel of the Empire, India (Expansionist Imperial Russia was only one of the polities eyeing India). Once the colonial period was over and India got independance, Britains problem became Indias problem.
Throughout history, from the days of the Moguls through the East India Company and later British times, Afghans have been problems.
I don’t expect it to change much before the 2200’s

I thought we picked Karzai because Pashtuns would fight for a Pashtun leader.

Are they?

Then again, since Massoud is dead, the other famous northern commander is Dostum…and as a former defense minister, he probably has more than a few enemies. Putting him in charge would probably just /enrage/ the Pashtun tribes. The Taliban might make some spin about Tajiks and Hazaras oppressing the proud, invader repelling Pashtuns and all that jazz.

I wonder what would happen if we’d intervened in the election and let The Other Guy win…

You’re incredible. You continue to ignore the mindset towards hijacking before 911 when a “cooperate and negotiate” mindset was in effect. Locked doors would have been unlocked and unlike most hijacking the terrorists brought their own pilots and passengers didn’t resist.

911 theorists? You’re dense. We have multiple eyewitnesses describing the terrorists killing crew and even pilots gurgling on the radio through likely slit throats. You aren’t allowed your own facts.

Enhanced doors are good and prudent but do not stop terror (just like bringing the military home and cutting it 50% increases our security). Even if there’s only a beaded curtain between the pilot and terrorist there has to be “what next”. If the intent is to take the plane down a bomb does it just as well. If the plan is to use the plane as a missile the terrorist needs a pilot and time to fly the plane. That’s not going to happen given the temperment of today’s passenger. 2+2 does not equal five!

i didn’t say “I don’t want to debate ‘luck’”. i said “it is debatable whether there is even such a thing as luck” surely even someone as careless as yourself can tell the difference? you also have a severe psychological pathology with ‘all or nothing’ thinking with your claim that “DHS didn’t do a darn thing to stop the bombers.” TSA does an incredible job under the most impossible constraints. screening of checked baggage deterred the shoe & underwear bombers into using less reliable bombs hidden in clothing. you have another severe psychological pathology with condescension towards other services (re: debates w/ USMC & USAF reps), and other govt agencies (DHS, state dept). when the world breaks you enough that you can actually appreciate the work of all of us in the defense/security sphere, maybe you can really get somewhere.

i didn’t say they would “stop” terror. listen close so you can stop misunderstanding someone’s position, and blaming them for your own misunderstanding. you are the one that is linear and deterministic in your thinking, as evidenced by your arrogantly confident, all or nothing assertions. i am the one that is non-linear and probabilistic.

“the existence or non-existence of luck is a theological debate.”

I’ve got no problem with fellow servicemembers. Maybe you should consider joining us sometime? This whole thread has shown you to be a head in the clouds elitist bafoon. Heck, even your handle (“expert” in Latin) tells us what you think of yourself.

Arrogantly confident? Coming from a guy that calls himself “expert” in Latin that’s hilarious!

the way you play with reps from other services and your comments towards DHS & State are evidence that in fact YOU are the elitist. joining the service? been there, done that. done the dependent thing as well.

need to deflect attention from your mistake and misunderstanding? not surprising. couldn’t handle all those big, mean, technical adjectives? not surprising either. farewell for now maj rod, I seek discussion on atleast a college level, you’ve dragged this discussion down to the playground.

I accept your surrender. :)

I don’t quite think that debating whether luck is theological or not would make a “college-grade” discussion.

We are not seeing the world the same way, it’s as simple as this. However, classifying any form of luck into theology is completely absurd, and should be relayed to high school. Formalist were wrong about mathematics, what to expect about their vision of luck?

It’s really a matter of nitpicking to call luck as something else, that what it’s all about, inventing new words that mean the same thing as the old one, but which somehow make the inconsistent perception of the reality more consistent, since by decree luck /= the new term.

Given a situation where odd of success is less than 1%, and success happen, this is luck; you can call it something else if you want. You might want to contradict the stochastic involved, arguing that the odds was so low because of a poor analysis, or else. Or you might want to call it professionalism.

The way you are presenting the situation is one that those private company would present them, because everything is more positive. Those privates companies have interest to deny luck, they want to justify their existence; they want to be the responsible of any favorable situation, saying that they were lucky is not going to convince anybody that they merit more money, and justify the cost of their contracts. Hence, even those company can have interest to present a failed attack as luck, only when it’s happen to be new market opportunities. We are near to marketing BS here.

What if the bomb have failed not because it is smaller, but because the bomb maker did not choose appropriate ingredients? The day an attacker will be stopped by screening, then we could say that security measure have effectively stopped something. When someone can snitch them and his bomb fail to explode, this is luck; not a direct consequence of indirect parameter.

What are you going to say the day they down a passenger aircraft with a missile?

Note that I could enumerate tons of different approach that could succeed –including those that look like getting a tank flying– but this is not something to discuss anywhere, not even in DoDbuzz. The FAA clearly does not want to ear how to do this, from unborn ass like me up to a team of MIT students. I don’t want to see one of those ideas to concretise either, how could I sleep then.

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